Sky-high "Day glue" pressure tire plate in the international secretly smile

Once a year ago set off the market waves of the tire plate is now facing embattled situation. The shares of the 600469. SH) Three quarterly reports show that the company achieved its main business income of 6.2 billion yuan, an increase of 54.4% per cent, net profit of 108 million yuan, but down 57.6%.　　In the three quarter of this year, the earnings per share of the company is only 0.03 yuan, is far lower than the previous institutional expectations. The same situation appears in the Guizhou Tyre A (000589.SZ). The company's main revenue in the three quarter year-on-year increase of 8.2%.　　But the gross margin of the chain fell 3.6%, to 14.3%, while the main business profit chain down 13.5%.　　This is largely due to the soaring price of natural rubber at the cost side.　　November 9, the Shanghai Rubber Index rose 3.93%, closed to 37182 yuan per ton, and the same period last year, the figure is only 19303 yuan per ton.　　Even in the first half of this year, the Shanghai Rubber Index was only 24169 yuan per ton at the beginning of the week, and the lowest level of June 7 had reached 20529 yuan per ton.　　Rubber prices nearly doubled in a year. "As far as I know, many tire manufacturers have low inventories, and in the first half they reduce risk by controlling inventories."　　"A chemical industry researcher at a brokerage in Shanghai said to reporters.　　Tyre industry pressure on natural rubber prices have just gone through a crazy October.　　September 30, the domestic natural rubber spot and futures price also hovering around 27000 yuan/ton, while the natural rubber futures in early November reached the highest price of 34150 yuan/ton of high, the January increase has reached 25%.　　And according to last October natural rubber spot price 16000 yuan/ton to calculate, the current price compared with more than a year ago, has doubled.　　Before the financial crisis, the price of natural rubber, the highest is only 28000 yuan per ton.　　This is largely due to a sharp reduction in production from natural rubber-producing areas.　　According to previous media reports, the Thai Rubber Association president Luckchai Kittipo once said that due to heavy rains affect tapping, Thailand's natural rubber production in the quarter may fall 4.1% to 930,000 tons. And China's two major production areas for Yunnan and Hainan.　　The former experienced a severe drought in October, the latter suffered floods, according to the Chinese Postal Securities Research Report, in the Xishuangbanna planting zone cut off due to drought effect than in previous years, the impact of 10-15 days, some of the farm production of cut rubber only 1/3 of normal years.　　The heavy rain in Hainan delayed the rubber cut, lodging, immersion and other phenomena have different degrees of occurrence.　　As of October 9, Hainan Province, natural rubber (private) Comprehensive stop cutting, cumulative production reduction of more than 10,000 tons;　　Compared with 646,000 tonnes of natural rubber in the country last year, a Shanghai futures researcher said it could cut more than 40,000 tonnes this year, down about 6% from 2009. And in the rubber of the most important demand side of the car tires, this January-September, fullChina's auto production and sales were 13.0827 million and 13.1384 million, up 36.1% and 35.97% per cent year-on-year.　　This has also largely contributed to further tension in supply and demand.　　This seems to explain the tire plate listed companies in the business income rose, but faced with the decline in gross margin and operating profit reduction. To Qingdao double Star (000599. SZ) As an example, the company three quarterly report, the first three quarters of the company to achieve operating income of 4.301 billion yuan, an increase of 42.68%.　　But the operating profit is-11.77 million yuan, and the same period last year, Qingdao double star operating profit as high as 219 million yuan.　　and natural rubber rapid price increase in the three quarter, but also its performance of the hardest hit. In the three quarter of this year, Qingdao double star operating income of 1.48 billion yuan, an increase of 13%, operating profit-10.45 million yuan, the same period last year 98.4 million yuan.　　Almost all of its main business losses were caused in the 3 quarter of this year. On the other hand, tyre manufacturers seem to be less prepared for a spike in rubber prices. "The stock of raw materials for each company is low, and I reckon it is lower than normal inventory levels," he said.　　The brokerage researcher told reporters.　　China International is a beneficiary by comparison, the A-share market, and not too many listed companies can benefit from the price of natural rubber. "The main benefit is the production of synthetic rubber, formerly Qilu Petrochemical has this business, but now Qilu Petrochemical has been privatized by Sinopec."　　The brokerage researcher told reporters. Under the cost pressure of natural rubber, some downstream enterprises begin to replace natural rubber with synthetic rubber.　　There are anecdotal rumors that Zhejiang's conveyor belt enterprises from May after the use of natural rubber, all with synthetic rubber. And from the natural rubber supply side, the International (600500.　　SH) or will be chestnuts out in the rising tide of natural rubber. As the largest comprehensive rubber service provider in China, set natural rubber upstream cultivation, processing and marketing in a, natural rubber and synthetic rubber and other related raw materials and tires of the marketing services as a leader, in its report, the Sino-Foreign securities in Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and China Hainan, Yunnan, such as the establishment of natural rubber procurement base, the participation of Yunnan Natural Rubber Industry Co., Ltd. and Hainan Natural Rubber Industry Group Co., Ltd., and the production of raw materials to extend the field, holding the Hainan Sino-China Rubber Co., Ltd. and Xishuangbanna, in the domestic Rubber Co.　　, of which 70% for high-end radial tire special glue.　　At the same time, the international is also a synthetic rubber distributor, the company is Exxon Mei Foo halogenated butyl rubber in China's total distribution, is Japan JSR Company in China Nitrile rubber Distributor, is the Netherlands DSM EPDM rubber in the domestic largest distributor. November 4, the Chinese international Rose 6.63%, after a trading day is up to 7.74%, the last four trading days, the internationalThe range has risen to 17.09% per cent.　　And from the great wisdom of the data can be seen, the last four trading days, the international presentation of the net inflow of funds, accumulated inflow of capital of 14.86 million yuan.　　In terms of valuation, China Post Securities forecast the company's 2010-2011 basic earnings per share of 0.51 yuan and 0.70 yuan, with the latest closing price of 13.77 yuan, the corresponding PE is 27 times times and 20 times times respectively.　　But for the Chinese international, rubber price increase can improve the extent of the company's performance, still unspeakable optimism.　　In the international body of the five major business, rubber is only part of its main. 2009 Annual report shows that China International rubber business Contribution main income of 6 billion yuan, the main business accounted for 26.38%, in the company's five main business, this ratio is second only to the metallurgical energy business, ranked secondly.　　And the business of the product gross profit margin of 8.44%, far less than the chemical logistics 32.11% gross profit margin. And from the profit contribution, the rubber business in 2009 contributed 507 million Yuan main profit, also after the chemical logistics business, but the product gross margin is far from.