"Slow rise and steep fall" is the main tone of the current market

⊙ Aki ⊙ Aki Although the A-share market has been "cloaked" to touch the new high, but still can not conceal the recent two weeks without a trend of the overall situation.　　Decide the trend of late market evolution, one is liquidity; Liquidity drive to slow down the formula = performance Change * Valuation criteria Change, the same company fundamentals unchanged, the performance is expected to be unchanged, the valuation standard is 15 times times or 30 times times P/E between the 100% fluctuation. So far, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 60%, the doubling of stocks is everywhere, and the contribution of last year's four quarter to listed companies ' performance in the first quarter of this year was 36% (last four quarter 24%, first quarter of this year, 12%), and it was intuitively shown that the period was entirely catalytic by changes in the market valuation of liquidity. Therefore, the change of market supply and demand is the core factor that determines the trend of the late development. A number of phenomena show that, although the market liquidity-driven strong inertia is still, but with the increase in the level of valuation, the inflow of peripheral funds in the slow down, the market supply and demand relationship is also quietly changing: (1) The first quarter of the monthly large bills financing cycle is mostly 4-6 months, This means that, starting in May, this part of the bill financing will enter the return period; (2) Although the IPO has not heard from the restart, however, the listed companies refinancing cases are being introduced, (3) Those "story-telling, speculation," the company in the realization of the share price after several times, the "non-tradable" reduction of strength in a significant increase, (4) market differences in unprecedented intensification,　　This means that there is a growing pressure to make a profit before. Market principles tell us that the single pole "need" in the supply and demand relationship is not sustainable. The current market supply and demand relationship quietly change tells us that the market liquidity of the single pole "need" is moving towards the supply and demand balance direction, that is, the market is starting from the liquidity expansion phase to find the balance of the evolution of the stage.　　Correspondingly, the trend-free market with limited upward space but relatively strong will remain for some time until the iconic event that changes the supply-demand relationship of the market appears. Blue chips need performance to help rise in the market relatively strong trend-free operation, people generally put the market again on the steps of hope pinned on blue chips. From the market level, most investors want blue chips to stabilize the main market, so that "blue-chip set up, subject shares in an opera" of the profit model can be continued, so as to "insatiable" to achieve more Dahua market returns, from the management level, but also hope that the market's focus on blue-chip, one can let the market rise "justified", Secondly, we can further enhance investors ' confidence, three can do real and do high IPO restart needs of the market base; from the Fund and other mainstream institutions, blue chip is the defensive strategy under the "housekeeping variety", blue chips if the performance will be able to help restore the "mainstream institutions" of the market. It is clear that the blue chip market has "Zhongxingpengyue"-like conditions, in the early May to finance, real estate, steel, automobile "four Big Kong" as the representative also does have performance, but the overall view of the current blue chip market is still more dignified. ThisThe problem is that, relative to the "story", fry the subject of small market share, the main catalyst for blue chips is real growth in performance. 80% of the company's profits came to blue-chip companies, although the economic backdrop of the current "recovery" has been formed, but the April economic data show that the recovery is still lagging behind. Therefore, the current blue-chip market is still relatively low valuations, the theme of a structural bubble led to market scale funds began to pay attention to the royal nature of the increase in the quality of the inflow, it can not be identified as blue-chip spring has come. Overall, the blue chip riots of the early May could be seen as a warm-up in the economic recovery cycle, whether the market has real explosive force, but also to see the second half of the recovery "transcripts."　　At this stage, "blue-chip sets, theme shares in an opera" pattern will remain. Avoid "steep fall" enjoy "slow rise" at present, the market is highly divided, the slow performance of another reason is that the 2600-2700-point area is the market's original annual expectations. Although the current market policy background, recovery process, liquidity and other factors have been more than expected, but when the market to achieve the original expectations, will always form a "see, two slow, three through" the sluggish performance, as well as high-frequency market shocks. "Slow Rise and fall" is the inherent characteristics of liquidity-driven market, therefore, in the actual operation as long as you can avoid the "nasty fall", you can enjoy the "slow rise" of the results become a market winner;　　and avoid "nasty fall", enjoy "slow rise" is still the first issue investors are facing. In terms of investment opportunities, a major backdrop for the current high liquidity market is the demand for "materialized assets" under inflationary expectations, which is largely the case with the rapid recovery in the real estate market. As a result, industries and companies with dual asset attributes, benefiting from inflation, are more likely to be favored by "materialized assets" such as resources, real estate and financial services. Among them, the recovery of the real estate industry in the construction, raw materials, home appliances and other industries have a clear boost.