Smartphones: The paradox of mobile internet portals

With the "mobile" two words in front of the internet, the situation seems to be different: application scenarios, user habits, user time and location are different, so the extension, the requirements for developers are not the same, which leads to a profit model and PC Internet is not the same.

We pay attention to this "different" and are happy to be a witness, a probe, a builder.

From the beginning of this period, the network leader will conduct a series of reports on this. It covers smartphones, hot spots and cutting-edge developments, and of course we will listen to the industry's insights into their business models.

Years later, when Lei and Zhou recall the past, they will think of the 2012 on Weibo acrimony nearly two months, and about the Chaoyang Park that distant summer.

At the time, they were leading their companies to move the internet, and smartphones became the right choice. The reason is simple, Apple's iphone and Google Android have successfully turned smartphones into an important gateway to the mobile Internet, and smartphones have become the first battleground for users. What makes them anxious is that at this entrance, there is no need for too many "door gods".

Lei tried to be one of them. But in his millet mobile phone sales are said to break through 3 million, he seems to sing all the way, will soon triumph of the process has been the industry peers, especially Zhou "sniper."

Zhou's killer weapon is for mobile phone AK47. AK47 was originally a gun designer Kalashnikov design of an automatic rifle, in 1947 stereotypes. There is no doubt that the AK47 for close combat seems to be a close-up of Zhou's combative character, suggesting that once it emerges, there will be a fight.

For traditional handset manufacturers, the emergence of millet and AK47, also means a subversion or correction ...

We will also find that smartphones as a gateway to the mobile Internet, there is also a huge paradox.

Is the hardware making money?

One of the major concerns of this war is whether the hardware of smartphones is making money.

Zhou that the millet mobile phone at the beginning of the highest cost-effective, really do not make money, but then with the production increase, procurement cost reduction, as well as network promotion, such as combination boxing attack, millet mobile phone has earned a lot of money, a millet mobile phone can earn 700 to 800 yuan.

The remark was lei by the attack. Previously, Lei has been claiming that hardware is not making money, perhaps to show that there is no doubt, Lei gave the reason: Samsung and Apple accounted for 99% of global smartphone profits.

Reporters were informed that the data from the Wireless Market Research Institute Canaccordgenuity technology analyst Mikewalkley.

"99%" stimulates everyone's nerves.

China Telecom Application store Operation Center industrial chain cooperation director Li Dan in the "network leader" reporter interviewed said, rely on the hardware of course can make money, but the profit is getting lower. Despite doubts about the 99%, "there is some truth to the trend." Samsung and Apple occupy an absolute share of profits. China has hundreds of handset terminal manufacturers, their profits of course more than 1%, not so exaggerated, but not very high. This is an indisputable fact. ”

The reporter found that the same time another market research company Abiresearch also released a relatively moderate data, said that in the first quarter of this year, Apple and Samsung control 55% of the smartphone market share, profits accounted for the smartphone market total profit of "more than 90%."

Since there are different opinions, the best way may be to ask the handset manufacturer.

Huawei Terminal spokesman told reporters: "At present, the hardware is still a major source of profit for mobile phone manufacturers, software in the future may become a new profit growth point, but at this stage by software development, user habits, payment methods and other factors, the profit prospects of software has yet to be clear." The spokesman said that the profitability of mobile phone manufacturers depends on a variety of factors, such as integrated costs, product pricing, channels, after-sales service, brand and so on.

Beijing Wen and Times technology (000611, shares bar) Limited company vice President Cho Hao thinks, depend on the hardware of course can make money. However, because domestic manufacturers of smart phones to sell foreign prices cheaper, in the domestic and communication operators to cooperate, so, even if the shipments are large, it is said this year, local mobile phone suppliers will account for half of the total, but the overall profit is still very low.

Other insiders said that the current domestic mobile phone brand profit margin is only about 10%, less than 1/4 of the apple. Of course, the millet mobile phone is the internet marketing, profits will be a little higher.

The Internet columnist, it critic, said that in the early days of the hardware, it might still be profitable, but Moore's law still works in the hardware industry, "the software is the opposite, software because the marginal cost is 0, so can rely on free mode to operate." ”

Do most Internet companies fail to make mobile phones?

However, insiders, the operation of the industry has specialized, internet companies into the mobile phone field, can be successful?

In mid-May, when an internet company announced its foray into mobile phones, Lee Kai-fu, chairman and chief executive of the innovation plant, said the vast majority of internet companies would fail. He cited six reasons for failure, such as "There are two big differences in industry, different corporate genes", "it is unrealistic to build a closed iphone-type high-profit closed industrial chain with Android" and so on. There are, of course, some possible successes, "if they can break through the problems mentioned above." Lee said.

"There are some possible successes" is a generic term, but in Ecapital Capital CEO ran, the current qualified seems to be only the millet mobile phone, he stressed: "Open and I refer to the Internet companies, this should not include millet." Because in my opinion, the Millet is the terminal company, only uses the Internet way marketing just. ”

For these statements, any beginning to do mobile phone internet companies do not agree, Baidu thinks netizens and smart machine users highly coincident, Zhou also claimed to do is not mobile phone, but "with Zhou to the Internet understanding and resources to help mobile phone manufacturers to transform the Internet model."

Li Dan that the millet mobile phone with actual results proved that the Internet model is feasible, "rely on traditional hardware to sell smart phones, you can never catch up with Apple, Samsung." "He agrees with Zhou, whether it's a business model or a product experience, whether it's marketing or product sales, selling phones should be internet-only." "Once you integrate your Internet service into your mobile phone, the handset makers also sell their phones like millet, which is also possible," he said. ”

A spokesman for the Huawei Terminal said that internet companies are entering the mobile phone field, once again explaining the broad opportunities in the market, "they may know more about the consumer's internet habits, their specific ideas and so on because of their background, which brings a lot of new things to the industry." However, the spokesman also stressed, "smart phone is still an industry, in addition to the concept and understanding of the network, but also to do a good job in research and development, design, manufacture, sales, service, etc., which is precisely the advantages of traditional terminal manufacturers." ”

The city Yu also agreed with this view, he said: "Internet enterprises have the hardware and software products of the gene, so into the mobile phone industry has a certain advantage." Mobile Internet development at the beginning, including mode, profit way is not very clear, everyone is in stones. The key to see who is more concerned about the user experience, who can master the entire industry chain. ”

Objectively speaking, if the Internet companies do most of the mobile phone will fail, then violated the original mobile phone field to layout mobile Internet, is tantamount to basket two empty. Perhaps it is too early to say whether they are "most likely to fail". Or, the Internet companies to subvert the mobile phone industry, "the Internet is the internet, mobile phone business may also be to the Internet?"

The time of fragmentation becomes prime?

But in front of the internet company, there is a bigger trap, that is, the fragmentation of time.

Previously, developers cheered that the mobile internet had aggregated the fragmentation of time, as if all the time before, except for the prime time of 7 o'clock to 9, the rest of the time was rubbish, and now all the time for fragmentation was prime. The mobile internet redefined prime time as a fair theory. As a result, the mobile Internet market scale has been infinitely magnified, as if a stick down will flow out of oil.

But in fact it is not. Not long ago, Qin Zijian, managing director of Tapjoy company Greater China, was in a speech. Disclosed the survival status of China Mobile's app developers this March, where 48.7% of developers lost, earning only 19.9%, and 44.6% per cent of the 2011-year earnings were below 10000 yuan.

"Fragmentation time does have an inherent contradiction. "Li Dan of course recognizes that all debris times are still more than prime time, but he also notes that" if it is too fragmented, mobile users will spend a long time wandering aimlessly, causing the user to become sticky. ”

In other words, although the total fragmentation time is more than before, but the quality may not be high, in app application of "one square centimeter of war" pie not very useful. This may be the reason, he said: "In our time, it is no longer a matter of prime." ”

Li Dan that the app is actually to solve the needs of people, but many people in the development of the application did not take this into account, it is very simple to meet a certain point of demand, the lack of killer application.

"The cell phone fills people's time for fragmentation, so as long as people are focused on the phone screen, it's easy to understand that it's prime." "Still, Huawei says:" Mobile phones extend people's living space, but how much space, depending on the actual needs of each person and the use of mobile phones. ”

This is actually saying that the actual size of the mobile Internet is not consistent with the theoretical answer.

Cho Hao also agrees with the paradox of the fragmentation of time, and he is not sure what the basis of "mobile Internet is 10 times times the size of the PC Internet".

In early June, Louis Gassi, a former Apple executive and Allegiscapital partner, claimed that the mobile ad industry might never be able to compare with PCs, one of the main reasons: "When we sit in front of a laptop or desktop screen, our attention is relatively concentrated and the time spent is relatively concentrated." Users know exactly where they are and what they are doing. "But when users use smartphones," they are often in the midst of movement, surrounded by real-world attractions and distractions, such as people and activities. As the Internet Queen Meeker in her report, the time that users spend on mobile devices is fragmented. ”

We used to say that a penny a penny. The traditional prime time, though scarce, is precious and valuable because it is scarce, and now the fragmentation is time, not because the sum of time is showered.

Who was "affected" by the smartphone?

Looking back at the history of mobile phones, we will find that cellphones have at least subverted digital cameras, MP3, and landline phones. So what are the industries that the smartphone is subverting?

In the interview, many guests gave a different answer to the question.

The Huawei Terminal spokesman avoided the word "subversion": "Many of the features of smartphones have been a lot of crossover and substitution for traditional devices, and they have also brought about changes in people's work and lifestyle, and have had an impact on many industries, such as MP4, MP3, navigation equipment, radios, paper books, cameras, and so on. ”

It is clear that, as Internet companies enter the smartphone arena, if the situation is not judged in time, traditional handset makers may also be turned upside down by smartphones. It is reported that Huawei will focus on the layout of high-end smart machines this year. The spokesman told reporters: "Huawei's high-end flagship model ASCENDP1 since the April 18 listing, sales have been hot, has been in 1000 top retail outlets in the goods on the Ark, and some retail outlets sold 50 units a month." ”

and Li Dan that smartphones have created new opportunities for many industries, allowing them to add more customers. However, because of the emergence of smartphones and tablets, the significance of the existence of notebook computers is not enough, may be the first to be the object of revolution.

However, are we accustomed to text messages, call calls are not affected by the object?

Data show that the use of smartphones is a major change in the form of browsing the web, E-books, instant Messaging ranked top three, and texting, the phone has been clearly behind. Later, is not the message, call may be all free? Is it necessary to withdraw from the historical stage?

In this regard, Huawei has given the view that people are constantly changing the way the communication is affected by a lot of factors, and everyone's need for text communication is different, so "text message still has its continued existence of space and value." And the city of Yu from another level to draw a similar conclusion: "SMS is the operator to provide 2G communication, mainly rely on communication signals." And now the very fire of micro-letter, etc. to rely on 3G or wireless WiFi to achieve. Unless there is a noticeable development of China's Internet signaling and environment, SMS still has a market in short time and will not be replaced. ”

So what do telecom operators think? Li Dan jokes, people do not know much about text messages, text messaging is the most successful 2.5G era of business, and now 3G era, and no killer application can like a large share of text. Of course, he admits, with the rapid development of micro-letters, SMS business has been facing a big crisis, "exaggerated point, if the micro-letter users reached 900 million, then the message does not exist meaning."

Not only text messaging, but also voice services. For operators, son, founder of SoftBank Group, has long said that "we can turn speech into a free service without any care".

"If SMS is replaced by mobile internet, voice business can not support the revenue of operators, we rely on what to make money?" Li Dan seems to ask himself, "That's why we're going to do smart plumbing and do the platform." ”

It is reported that China Telecom has laid out the business model based on the application store wing space, although less than two years time, but also has 100,000 balance products, trying to make a difference in the mobile internet industry.

"What does a carrier do?" What advantage do we have? "These two questions are actually saying that if the layout does not force, then even the operator, the smartphone will be" impact.