Southwest Securities: Focus on cyclical industries

Ma Yi Hsueh Southwest Securities recently released in the 2009 medium-term Investment strategy Analysis report that the macro-economic success in the first quarter of the bottom, the next few quarters there is a "V-type reversal" of the possibility, but the need for both internal and external force double cooperation.　　Short-term market growth is small, but long-term valuation advantages still exist, it is recommended that investors, in addition to continue to the technology, resources, consumption and the configuration of the contract, to increase the financial, real estate and import and export industries and materials, such as the cyclical sector configuration.　　The report said that China's economy has been down for seven consecutive quarters, with positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy under the guidance of 4 trillion investment and a rebound in consumption, the economy is expected to continue to move higher in the next few quarters. South-Western securities believe that deflationary pressures will ease at the end of the three quarter and expect a new round of asset price spikes in the middle of next year. "There may be another 1 to 2 interest rate cuts in the next 3-5 months, but not more than 36 basis points, a deposit reserve or 500 basis points down."　　"For market trends, Southwest Securities believe that after 6 months of upward, market valuation has entered the pressure zone, the company still maintain 2009 total market profit expected to be 1.15 trillion yuan, if the 15 to 18 times times PE calculation, the short-term rise of the stock index space has not been small." What kind of investment strategy should investors adopt in the middle of 2009? According to the report, from the investment cycle, has now entered the expected second-half, the proposed investors in the allocation of equity assets to finance, real estate, equipment manufacturing and other active investment industries, continue to hold the new energy, information technology, biotechnology-oriented technology, defensive pharmaceutical industry, Food and beverage and rail transport construction related plate, at the same time to absorb the cycle of industrial assets such as steel, ocean transportation and special equipment manufacturing of mining equipment and medical equipment. The report also advises market participants to take a positive look at the speculative opportunities in some of the public sectors brought about by price reform and the speculative opportunities created by gem construction.