Speculators self-exposure: The main culprit is speculation

Securities Times reporter Yangli after the garlic and mung bean crazy rise, corn, cotton prices began to stir. The rise in agricultural prices has aroused widespread social concern and a high degree of attention from the central government. How did the price of agricultural products sit on the roller coaster? Speculation in the rise in the price of agricultural products accounted for how much proportion? How does the speculators operate specifically?　　A recent speculators involved in this round of agricultural speculation told reporters about his "hype Sutra". Speculation is skyrocketing due to the recent, official, media, experts in the analysis of agricultural prices, the main reason is attributed to climate anomalies, planting area, the increase in exports, rumors and other factors, that these factors caused the supply and demand of some agricultural products have changed.　　Some speculators, however, disagree with this view, saying that a simple change in supply and demand is not going to cause such a big gain. Some people think that the price of agricultural products is too much circulation, middlemen in arbitrage.　　But in fact, when the price of mung beans, the market on the trading of mung bean is more light, mung bean market does not show the general commodity market to a good price Zisheng phenomenon. The speculators interviewed said: "Since to hype, in order to achieve maximum benefits, this needs to reduce the profit of other links, but do not rule out the opportunity to increase profits." "The speculators are blunt, speculation is the culprit of agricultural prices, but the rise in vegetable prices and they have nothing to do, they are only involved in the mung bean, garlic speculation, and black beans, barley, glutinous rice and other grains of the higher, is caused by the bandwagon, not hype." Next they will shift the focus of the hype to some commodities.　　He also said in particular that they would not hype wheat and rice, two of the country's most important strategic goods, and they "did not dare" to touch. Outside the industry to manipulate the OTC futures traded agricultural products price is how to push up the step by step?　　How do speculators operate? It is understood that futures prices led to the rise in spot prices is the key. such as mung bean, garlic, such as non-futures exchange listed trading varieties, but can through the OTC Futures trading platform-electronic trading market for futures trading. The electronic market distributes in the product distributing center, the quantity is numerous, the scale is unequal. The market maker of electronic trading is the core of price formation. In fact, market makers in electronic trading markets are usually held by large spot traders.　　The big spot trader played a key role in the price rise. The speculators said: "If we want to hype an agricultural product, we must unite with the industry." The so-called "insiders" are big market makers. Previous media reports have pointed out that most garlic hoarding people also belong to the garlic industry, not from other industries, mung bean situation is similar. Market maker more than one, speculators have some options, and market makers and speculators joint action, can also share a cup of soup, so the general market maker will not refuse this cooperation intention. such as garlic, mung bean These export-oriented agricultural partners are mainly exporters, while the main partner of corn is feed factory, alcohol factory; Cotton needs to cooperate with textile mills. The premise of cooperationis to meet the material needs of these enterprises as far as possible. Before the real hype, speculators will generally spread some rumors, such as the future harvest of agricultural products, market filling and so on, and then short in the market, and so on after the price drop, they will start to do more.　　When the majority of the pay is concentrated in their hands, it is equivalent to grasp the product of the spot supply, control the spot supply also control the price. The speculator said: "With the speculation of capital cooperation market maker or is the spot, although will try to meet the material needs of these enterprises, in the price of the crazy rise, can only make these business days relatively better, but it is impossible to completely evade the negative impact of speculation." But the people involved have received additional benefits. On the surface, the impact of these companies is also small, so it will cause the enterprise decision-makers wise illusion. "In addition, these companies are very likely to receive subsidies from the government to compensate for the loss of raw material price increases." For example, some feed enterprises, pig enterprises, each feed, pig price rise, will be attributed to the raw material rise, cost improvement, but in fact this with the individual enterprises in the association, and finally often the government will give them subsidies to tame the price of pigs. The speculators added, "If commodities such as corn are hyped, they can also be combined with futures markets, but the stakes are higher." A large empty warehouse is likely to bring us down. A hand to do futures, hand to do spot, of course, can enlarge the profit, but the risk is not negligible.　　Speculators in the futures market are far from confident in the spot market. Speculators detailed speculation by the speculators said, hype a small variety, such as mung beans, garlic, chili, only need hundreds of millions of can be done, private capital can cope. But at the same time hype several varieties, even including commodities, it is not private capital can do, must have the participation of state-owned capital.　　He said the hype also has state-owned ingredients, but declined to disclose the means by which state-owned capital entered the agricultural market. The speculators said that the stock market has been weak and the property market has been regulated. "The market is abundant in liquidity, capital and lack of investment channels, the influx of agricultural products market is inevitable." "Financial and technical conditions are available, but also to study the country's economic situation and policy direction." Speculators reiterated the bottom line for not touching the two varieties of wheat and rice.　　It is reported that three basic economic environment judgment contributed to their speculation behavior: first, the country has been hoping to increase farmers ' income in recent years, improve the price of agricultural products is the general trend; second, the international impact of relatively large commodities, the state wants to obtain pricing power, the third is the expansion of market liquidity, inflation For the impact of speculation, the speculators have a different view: "Through speculation, garlic and other export-oriented agricultural products, the price of the right to return; second, speculation for farmers also have some benefits. For example, garlic, speculation to promote the price of garlic, farmers also have a lot more than before, and the inevitable future inflation, which is also a means to deal with inflation. "In response to the current three ministries and the joint dispatch strictSpeculation on the behavior of agricultural products, the speculators believe that in accordance with the existing laws and regulations on speculation is difficult to obtain evidence, especially the main speculation. This measure can play a deterrent, warning role, but the practical significance is not significant. "Three ministries to govern, not to the point, the most need to come forward is SASAC." "Now garlic mung bean hype basically ended, the price began to fall back." But other agricultural prices have just stepped up the aisle, the price of the fall of about August, speculation period depends on the capital cycle and seasonal cycle. The speculator said.