Standard Chartered: Massive supply will hit the mainland property market

On November 30, Standard Chartered said in its latest research report that the Chinese property market would be hit by a supply of new homes and would take a long time to digest.　　However, this supply shock is mainly concentrated in the three or four-tier cities, while the supply of first-tier cities and many second-tier cities is still very limited. The report analysis said, 2010 years ago 10 months, the National 35 big city's residential land sales total area reaches 316 million square meters, may provide for the construction house 4.5 million sets. In the same period, about 2 million housing units were sold in these cities. As developers of the pre-sale, this part of the new supply should already start to impact the market, and in the next few months supply will increase substantially, and the current demand trend is far less than 2009 strong.　　Therefore, the market is facing oversupply problem.　　However, the report said that for the first-tier cities as a whole, there is no big supply problems, while the inventory of second-tier cities and three or four-tier cities have the possibility of price reduction. For Shanghai, Shenzhen and Chengdu, these cities have fewer inventories and are therefore still facing huge price pressures. And many cities, including Beijing, Chongqing, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou, Xi ' An and Changsha, will have a basic balance of supply and demand, in the short term or will not appear to disrupt the price trend of the supply shocks. However, in Tianjin, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Dalian and Xiamen and other cities, there may be large-scale supply shocks.　　Prices in these cities will face greater downward pressure. "If the central government insists on implementing existing regulatory policies, market demand will remain low," said Stephen Green, director of research at Standard Chartered's Greater China region. If you continue to raise interest rates several times or introduce a property tax pilot, the market sentiment may be reversed and prices will be lowered modestly. However, if macroeconomic data weakens, the market will expect the central government to introduce loose policy. (according to financial network)