Statistics beautiful talk and the micro-blogging operation of Mushroom Street

Since the beginning of this year, Sina Weibo has regularly released its official microblog development report. In the report, we can see many of the well-known sites on the microblog performance of the summary , because with beauty and Mushroom Street in the same media area, so very attention The two from the beginning of last year has been a strong performance of the site, After analyzing the two websites ' performance on Weibo, we know some unexpected conclusions.

Let's start with a noun to explain what: short-chain reflux ratio and reflux

The official report of Sina Weibo, on the short chain and the return of data in a lot of space , may be to encourage the commercial website microblogging account to continue to increase the investment in micro-blog. For commercial websites, Weibo is not just a platform for managing public relations and access to users, but also a way to get traffic through short chains. The amount of traffic that is obtained through Weibo is measured by the "reflux ratio": Simply put, the reflux ratio means how many fans point the connection to each post with a linked microblog. If the reflux ratio of 1000% means that every tweet with a short link, 10 people click on the short chain.

Generally speaking, commercial web sites can get traffic on microblogs in two ways: short chains on their Weibo accounts (official Weibo returns), or short chains via other people's Twitter accounts, whether in paid-for or fan-free delivery.

Therefore, the short chain backflow (from the micro-blog to bring the flow) = Official microblogging return + paid forward return + fan's natural send.

Meanwhile, as long as we know the return ratio of a website on Weibo (published in the report), and know the number of short links to the site, we can estimate the traffic from the commercial web site: Total traffic = reflux ratio of total short link number.

With this in view, we can begin to look at the beauty of the talk and Mushroom Street.

Official microblog return statistics

Mushroom Street and Beauty said that the two female shopping media for the official micro-blog has a very standardized management: Beautiful said micro-blog account will send 70 a day with beautiful said official website link, and Mushroom Street about 30 a day. The official microblog of two websites publishes 2,100 and 900 short chains each month respectively.

After you know the number of short links, now look at the reflux ratio. The report mentions the top 10 of the official microblog returns in the first half of the 2012, although it is still possible to speculate because beauty and mushroom street fail to obtain specific data about their official microblog return. To reflux than the tenth Bowser net 7,679% this number as a benchmark, beauty said and Mushroom Street official Weibo reflux ratio can not exceed 7,679%, in order to simplify the model, we take 7,679% of this maximum value. By multiplying the number of short links with the maximum reflux ratio, we have the maximum amount of traffic that can be obtained from the two official microblogging releases:

Mushroom Street: 7679% x 900 = 6,9111

Beauty says: 7679% x 2100 = 161,259

These are monthly flows, you can see the two companies in the Micro-blog accounts, although gathered more than 3 million of the large number of fans, but also released a large number of content, but through the official micro-blog released short chain of traffic is still very limited.

Paid forward reflux statistics

These two domestic well-known female shopping guide media are not taboo on the micro-Bo drainage has a huge investment, then their micro-blog and the amount of traffic to be specific how much, we can also make a simple estimate.

Now the micro-broad is generally by forwarding the form of official microblogging to pay for the promotion, so we just look at the daily official Weibo forwarding volume can be estimated to pay the short link number. Through the query beautiful said and Mushroom Street 4-6 months of micro-blog records that the daily average of Mushroom Street forwarding volume of about 6,000, while the beauty of the floating is larger, low when only 3,000 per day, peak can reach 30,000 per day, in order to facilitate the temporary maximum value.

Next look at the reflux ratio: Mushroom Street in the first half of 2012, the overall reflux ratio of 2,256%; Beautiful said although not into the top 10, but we can still take the tenth place maximum value to make an estimate, that is 968%.

By multiplying the number of short links paid forward and the maximum reflux ratio, we have to come up with the maximum amount of traffic that can be obtained by paying forward the two commercial websites:

Mushroom Street: 2256% x 6000 x 30 = 4,060,800

Beautiful said: 968% x 30000 x 30 = 8,712,000

By comparison, it can be found that, while the official microblog is typically more than the forwarding microblog, the vast majority of traffic from the amount of traffic generated is the forwarding of Weibo.

Natural sending statistics for fans

Fans of these two websites can share their behavior on the site, such as when they like to share the tweets automatically. What about this part of the short chain that the fans naturally send?

Beauty says there's a big fan share--about 2000 a day, and Mushroom Street is small--about 100 a day.

This is implemented through the interface of short chain forwarding is the use of fan friends to spread the benefits, but the effect is very limited. The main reason is that the average user's attention is generally small (advanced users tend to pay more attention to the source and quality of the release content), so this natural forwarding through the fans seems to share a large number, but the coverage and influence are small, can produce a small number of clicks. In view of the beauty of the said and Mushroom Street to the user age generally small (as well as less social and influence), this through the fan to forward the reflux ratio should be very low.

A simple survey found that it was also more consistent with this conclusion, the forwarding of beauty and Mushroom street short chain of users are concerned about the majority of the number of people in the dozens of (preliminary estimate of 30-40 people, excluding off the merchant and forwarding large after). To simplify the model, we can ignore the traffic generated by the natural forwarding of the fans.

Summary of micro-blog flow

So the maximum flow of two companies from Weibo each month is:

Mushroom Street = official Weibo 6,9111 + paid promotion 4,060,800≈4,100,000

Beautiful say = official microblog 161,259 + pay promotion 8,712,000≈8,900,000

You can see that the two sites on Sina Weibo did get a millions of level of huge traffic, of course, such a flow level is also accompanied by huge costs. With the forwarding account of the more hot, forwarding micro-BO price is also rising; now almost to the cost of about 1 yuan per click. Then, we put the "pay promotion" that part of the cost of the number doubled into 0.5 yuan per click, which means that the monthly micro-bo millions of yuan of input! There was a press release that said beauty says it costs 1.5 million yuan a month on Weibo.

In terms of the maximum amount of traffic that can be obtained, estimate the minimum cost of two companies on Sina Weibo each month:

Mushroom Street = 4,060,800 x 0.5 =￥2,030,400

Beautiful say = 8,712,000 x 0.5 =￥4,356,000

"Note: The author of the site in the early also participated in the promotion of pay Weibo, so more clear the historical changes in costs." The cost per click of the most recent quarter floats around 1 yuan. With peers, micro-Bo marketing Company's exchange also support this conclusion: Generally speaking, the cost of electricity per click within 1-4 Yuan. So personally think that the number 1 yuan can be used as an industry standard to see.

In cost accounting, considering the long-term forwarding has a certain scale effect (or bargaining power, brand influence and other comprehensive factors), so hit a 50 percent, should be more objective. Recently several big electric rumble on Weibo, calculate to each click cost is actually only high not low. 】

Further calculation: the input-output ratio of micro-blog flow

From the above, the amount of traffic that can be obtained from Weibo is mainly based on the proportion of budget input. So what about the ROI of getting traffic through Weibo, which can be a simple estimate.

Downstream conversion of two companies:

Guest Price: ￥100

Conversion rate: 8%

Commission ratio: 5%

The proportion that supports Taobao guest: 50%

Page Click conversion Rate: 50% (this number is based on the official PR draft flow figures, Mushroom Street, the official number is 35%)

Note: The above figures in addition to the page click Conversion rate from the PR version of the figures published in the calculation, other figures are directly from the two companies of the official PR manuscript.

Through the above data we know that two companies in the pay micro-blog traffic on the ROI =-80%! Although two companies have a very good conversion rate, but due to lower Commission ratio and customer unit price, measured the actual commercial value, the ROI through micro-blogging to obtain traffic is actually very low!

The author updates the calculation process:

1. Click Cost =￥0.5

2. The commercial value generated by each click = Customer Unit Price (￥100) x conversion rate: (2003–4) x Commission ratio (GROS) x support Taobao customer ratio (50%) x page click conversion Rate (50%) =￥0.1 yuan

3. ROI = (click to generate Business value-click Cost)/click cost = (￥0.1-￥0.5)/￥0.5 =-80%

Finally, some comments and some other digression

Believe that beautiful said and Mushroom Street in the early development of Weibo, is to be able to use the form of topic hype and paid forwarding to obtain a large number of low-cost traffic; But with the rapid increase in the cost of micro-blogging, maintaining a high level of traffic from Weibo not only requires huge market costs, but also the proportion of input and output has become extremely low, Sina Weibo is unlikely to be the main source of traffic for the two companies, as it has in the past (in terms of forwarding numbers, the beauty of the recent period has largely stopped the microblogging campaign). Search engine is the main channel of traffic, beauty and Mushroom street, although not dependent on search engines, but has a high reliance on social media: looking for other than micro-bo other low-cost channels become the top priority. But at present, Tencent, everyone and other social media in the Web site drainage on the role is relatively limited.

At the same time, the early simple, crisp waterfall Flow display mode can bring some user stickiness, but with the entry of several major Giants, a form of display to attract users of the core is far from enough. In addition, "reality show" this early easy to make users of the phenomenon of intimacy and word of mouth has already withdrawn from the beautiful said and Mushroom street content sharing stage, replaced by a lower threshold of a sticky paste-style sharing. Not only have businesses flooded in, but they have also led to a gradual decline in the level of sharing.

In the face of the situation, from Alexa saw the recent flow of two companies have been compared with the highest period has fallen a lot. Too much reliance on a single channel, poor management of content control, coupled with the lack of continuous innovation, if the above three points continue to deteriorate, beauty and mushroom Street may be like happy to become a phenomenon-class products.