Steel price rally: Late Advance indicator

The key is only an emergency bulletin, but it is said to be the most stringent purge action ever, which is somewhat exaggerated, as the government's functional departments, according to the market supply and marketing situation, timely notification, should be a thing.　　As for the measures taken, it is only by CISA to co-ordinate the interests of all parties, the so-called strict administrative measures, but the commercial banks to reduce the number of steel enterprises loans, but in the market economy, whether the acceptance of the business, it is the bank's own business. So we take the Ministry of Communications as a strict executive order is wrong, this and the history of iron and steel enterprises to purge is not comparable, after all, after years of market cultivation, the Government's respect for the market more.　　I think it is more likely that the major steel companies will, through consultation, control the excessive growth of production capacity and maintain the good situation of the recovery price rising since April. If this is limited, it is also a good thing, the stock market has not been any severe purge intimidated, steel plate how to go. This is not so much a major manipulation, but rather a true portrayal of the market. Since the beginning of the year, crude oil, gold, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products are constantly rising, the only slow is the steel industry, steel price is also two or three consecutive months of decline, until April, steel prices began to restore the rise, is not a rebound factor, the car, real estate industry in advance of the price of steel, forced the rebound, Triggered a rapid recovery in the capacity of some steelmakers, and the rapid resumption of capacity in the case of a sharp decline in steel exports has raised management concerns, hoping to curb too fast recovery through hints, association talks and moderate bank credit controls. We should understand that this is a protection for the steel industry, for the quality of steel enterprises This is even a good thing, the real fear is those high energy consumption and pollution of enterprises, because these enterprises are commercial banks may be accepted to reduce or stop the loans of enterprises, the reason is very simple, these enterprises increased the risk of　　And banks ' credit is always risk averse. From the operation of steel stocks, the current rise may be a start. But steel stock is a special torture plate, it may be in there to toss it down, after a while again to the agitation and then flameout again, no good patience is unable to hold steel stocks. But the low market prices of these steel stocks, and the prospect of another round of high growth, will eventually evolve into a sustained rise, twice times or even several times.　　Corresponding to China's industrialization and urbanization, China's steel industry is not a sunset industry, if patience, the industry's stock can still let you earn enough. In fact, I do not want to say the number of steel stocks there are many opportunities, I would like to say that the start of the steel stocks, not just a rise, but the recovery of China's economy in the last section of the confirmation, that is, China's macroeconomic series of leading indicators also reflects the evidence of recovery. In the last period I have proposed that China's a-share has been full of cattle, if there is no macro-economic walking cattle, it is impossible, the macro-economic walking bull is the stock market goThe necessary conditions for cattle but not the only condition. Of course, if the size of the stock market is too small, the stock market can be artificially controlled, such a necessary condition is not established, this is common in the early shares.　　However, in the current market scale, if the macro-economy, coupled with ample market liquidity, the market can not think of a rise is difficult. Since the beginning of this newspaper, has always been a high degree of economic indicators of concern and investigation, with a view to making a correct judgement of China's macro-economy, through a multi-period survey, we found that basically in line with our early judgment, the macroeconomic series of leading indicators all warmed up, even the falling steel prices in April began to rise. We do not see the government departments of the hint of limited production, it is considered a kind of repression, is the end of a market, on the contrary, increasingly responsive to the market economy management is the hope that slow cattle-slowly restore production and structural adjustment, slowly restore prices to meet the market recovery. Let the market grow healthily, believe that such a slow cow is the market participants are happy to see.