Steel price roller coaster market behind

From the industrial point of view, the price of this round of steel collapse is purely a market speculation mentality and financial behavior. article/medium and large futures Zhou Jiaming steel futures market has been nearly 5 months, rebar contract RB0911 from the lowest 3501 yuan/ton to the highest point of 4968 yuan/ton, up to 41.9%. The next is a wave of the same slump, as of August 19, RB911 closed at a price of 4219 yuan.　　From the recent transactions and positions, the recent daily turnover of steel futures have exceeded or close to 2 million hands, the position reached a record of 770,000 hands, become all futures varieties of positions and volume of the largest. Policy has become the guide to the current round of the financial crisis, countries in the beginning of this year have decided to loose monetary policy. A large number of Chinese companies have received a lot of credit from banks, including the more than 400 billion-dollar acceptance bill, which was issued at the end of February, at 3 months and 6 months. The 6-month period is due to be concentrated on September 15 to September 20. According to our understanding, the steel trade enterprise financing is a large part through the acceptance of the draft, steel traders this part of the funds in early September will be concentrated due. In the capital markets, the response has started one months ahead: The stock market began to adjust July 29, and rebar also peaked on August 4 to start adjusting.　　There is no doubt that the momentum of the rally has been marked by signs of cash. It is noteworthy that in this wave of huge rise in the process, Jiangsu Sand Steel Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter called SHA Steel) as a steel plant to participate in the futures market and a large number of shorting has attracted the attention of all. Sand steel in the rebar futures listed in less than a week time to complete the 38,000 hand RB909 of the job, the average cost of 3600 yuan/ton. As prices rise because of the inconvenience of delivery, SHA Steel in 4000 yuan/ton after the beginning of the relocation of the Peace Warehouse, July 31, Sha Steel in their seats on the last 6,000 more hand list also flat (we think it in other futures companies are very likely to have long), and on August 1 that day announced a price increase of 600 yuan/　　ton, since the sand steel from the somersault, sand steel to play the means of steel price is quite adept.　　August 12, the relevant departments released data showed that July new loans for 355.9 billion yuan, the chain reduced by 77%, the speculation in the second half of the credit scale will be tightened, coupled with the impending acceptance of the bill and the stock market in the mass opening of the new shares, resulting in the financial side of the tension, and eventually led to The speed of economic recovery determines the direction of steel prices from the industrial point of view, this round of steel price inflation collapse is purely a speculation in the market mentality and financial behavior. In the steel futures price close to 5000 yuan/ton, Hangzhou two-grade rebar sand steel, such as first-line brand spot price in 4300 yuan/ton has stopped rising pace, turnover sharply shrinking, the market wait-and-see sentiment is very obvious. At this time the steel mill profit in 1000 yuan/ton above, the national rebar stock in 3.3 million tons, one months increase 10Million tons, there is no shortage of the phenomenon. According to the laws of previous years, March is the highest variety of steel stocks, March-November inventory is the process of continuous reduction, after November began to increase gradually.　　But this year the surplus is particularly serious, in addition to the spiral less than March (although not obvious), the other varieties are slightly reduced and began to increase, the current inventory of hot plate is already a record high. From the technical side of the futures form, 4000 yuan/Dayton is a platform for the starting point of the market. Rebar because of the continuation of "Tiegangki" project and the revival of real estate will appear a wave of new rally, in the current supply pattern, the economic recovery speed and the country in the second half of the monetary policy will determine the trend of steel prices in the second half.