Structural features promote a-share market style transformation

⊙ National Yuan Securities Investment Consulting Director Kang Hongtao the structural characteristics of the stock market from small stock to large stocks have a crucial influence on the rebound logic and the running path of the whole markets.　　Under the background of obvious structural differences in a-share market, the analysis of the structural change features of profit and valuation constitutes an important basis for predicting market operation and grasping investment opportunities, and the two-yuan structure of scale has created a unique rebound logic of a-share market. From the statistical data, 20 of the state-owned companies (14 banks, 2 coal, 2 oil, Changjiang Power and China Unicom) 2008 net profit of 602.52 billion yuan, an increase of 60.1% per cent, 2009 1 quarterly net profit was 154.472 billion yuan, the year-on-year increase of 0.61%. Excluding the 20 listed companies, the remaining 1500 listed companies in 2008 net profit amounted to 270.688 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 44.83%; 2009 1 quarterly net profit amounted to 59.147 billion yuan, down 50.43% year-on-year. From the dynamic point of view, according to the current market consensus, the 20 state-owned large market companies in 2009 and 2010 net profit Year-on-year growth of 2.78% and 13.25%, the other listed companies are 46.18% and 27.6% respectively.　　This shows that the A-share market there is a clear "two yuan" characteristics: The state-owned large market capitalisation companies in the policy or monopolistic factors have a clear profit stability, equivalent to the overall market profit stabilizer, while the rest of the listed companies have a stronger cyclical volatility characteristics. This structural difference is also reflected in the valuation dimension. According to statistics, the 20 state-owned large-market companies in 2008, the static P/E ratio of 14.59 times times, 2009 dynamic earnings ratio of 14.3 times times, while the rest of the 2008 static earnings ratio of 45.94 times times, 2009 dynamic earnings ratio of 26.9 times times, enjoy a more obvious valuation premium.　　Logically, the market tends to give higher valuations to companies with more resilient economies, which is the main reason for the relative backwardness of weighted stocks in the market rally since the end of last year.　　From the existing valuation level, the other listed companies ' earnings rebound is expected to have been more fully reflected in the valuation data, and the market for the state-owned large market value of the company's earnings forecasts are relatively conservative, the valuation level is also low, which actually has been buried market style conversion foreshadowing. At the same time, regional disparities in economic recovery have been reflected in valuation comparisons. Due to the difference of economic extroversion and industrial structure, the economic recovery in China shows obvious regional characteristics. Only in the 2008, the net profit of the listed companies in the northwest region was increasing, and the net profit fell relatively small in the 1 quarter of 2009; in north China, because of the large state-owned companies, net profit overall performance stability; Northeast, Southwest, The decrease of net profit in South Central and central region is obviously related to the high or high degree of the local cyclical industry. From 2009 and 2010 earnings forecasts, preThe biggest growth in the period of net profit is the northeast and southwest, there will be a certain recovery in south-east and North China, while the northwest region's net profit remains stable growth. The earnings forecasts are already reflected in valuation data, from PE, where the highest valuations are in the south-west and northeast, and then in the northwest and South Central, indicating that the market has given a higher valuation premium to regions with a cyclical sector of high economic growth potential. While the state-owned large-market companies accounted for higher than the North China and the external economic impact of the larger coastal areas listed companies, it reflects a more obvious valuation discount. The regional characteristics of valuations will also drive market-style conversions.　　In addition, a variety of concept-subject-type stocks have been given a relatively full valuation premium.　　In general, the economic recovery in the context of large-cap stocks needs to have four conditions: the economy came out of the bottom, corporate earnings began to rebound; the CPI bottomed out and the trend moved towards moderate inflation, with interest rates falling, m1/m2 from high, and the RSI index peaking, running at more than 80, or even close to 100. From the current situation, we think that although the market style will gradually turn to large stocks, but in the export is still hovering at the bottom, and real estate development to upstream conduction is not completed, its successful conversion still need to wait for further confirmation of the macroeconomic improvement signal. In the process, the market is likely to be a major shock in the coming period, gradually increasing the allocation of large stock stocks and grasping the corresponding structural opportunities will constitute the main melody of short-term investment.