Take this as the title, not to blindly sing the failure of intelligent hardware hot

Take this as the title, not to blindly sing the failure of intelligent hardware heat. But the heat of smart hardware in the media and the heat of the market is indeed a double day of ice fire.

Ces and MWC, the most important consumer electronics Conference of the Year two, have ended, with the media and analysis agencies rendering, as if wearable market is already a gold mine, but what about the actual market performance? The illusion of prosperity behind the heat of the dress.

First, the data illusion, which is a frequently cited set of data:

1) biintelligence forecast, 2014 global wearable equipment shipments will reach 100 million units, and 2018 will reach 300 million units, in accordance with the average of 42 U.S. dollars per shipment price calculation, 2018 global wearable equipment sales will reach 12 billion U.S. dollars.

2) Abiresearch forecast, the next 5 years wearable equipment began to explode and universal, 2018 global wearable equipment shipments will reach 485 million units, the corresponding sales scale of 19 billion U.S. dollars.

3 Credit forecasts for the next 2-3 years, the size of the wearable technology market will increase from the existing 305 billion U.S. dollars to 30.05 trillion dollars.

Pull back to reality and look at several sets of data.

Pebble's sales figures for the first half of 2013 were 275,000, followed by no public sales figures, and the product, which was launched in 2012, was upgraded at CES in January 2014 only to increase the choice of metal straps.

With global market appeal Samsung Gear in mid-November 2013 was forced to say that has sold gear smart watch 800,000, will be Samsung this army of South Korea local media business Korea The media said that Samsung Gear launched to November only sold 50,000 units, Sell only 800~900 units every day.

This is the performance of two star smart watch products, and the prediction of the size of the number of billions of dollars is too far away. Look at the Jawbone Up and Fitbit Flex representatives of these two hand ring classes.

Since the jawbone, Fitbit two companies have not yet listed, it is difficult to find public data, it is very strange, can hardly find any one of the reliable wear market 2013 sales volume. However, a group of data released by NPD in January showed that Fitbit, Jawbone up and Nike FuelBand carved up a 97% share of the wearable market. Among them, Fitbit accounted for 68%, Jawbone accounted for 19%, Nike FuelBand accounted for 10%, and other manufacturers divided up the remaining 3%.

At the same time, NPD disclosed another data that 2013 the global wear Equipment market value of 330 million U.S. dollars, we will be based on the average price of 100 dollars, the total sales of only 3.3 million units. So, the data is the biggest illusion.

Domestic Jump Ticket Practice

This is a foreign country, the acceptance of smart wear equipment is higher, the market performance even so. Look at the domestic market, you see, each other's ups and downs of the smart hardware team saw him up high-rise, watching his banquet media, watching him jump ticket ...

Inwatch delivery delay 20 days, the shell Gwatch delayed release time 1 months, the T-fire is also jumped the ticket to push to the cusp ..., do not jump the ticket instead of normal, skip the ticket to explain what, the description Kua Haikou, not fully prepared, explained that the combination of soft and hard hardware products introduced difficult.

The majority of intelligent hardware team members by a group of internet people and experienced hardware engineers, according to the internet thinking to build products, but did not think of intelligent hardware product casting, and the rhythm of the Internet products is not the same. You can recruit a group of engineers, 10 days to develop an application products, but you have to solve the supply chain, tooling, hardware debugging in a short time, is impossible.

Besides, what are the illusions?

1, homogeneous product blowout

Homogenization is already the most obvious status of the smart wear market, from CES consumer electronics exhibition to just the past MWC Mobile World Congress, is so, CES is a homogeneous product burst the peak, you can see Sony Core, LG life Band, Basis B1, Pebble Steelcompany , as well as Cross-border Garmin Vivofit, Lei snake Nabu and so on, "hardware re-invention" has sent an article in CES, this list can easily list 24.

In addition to some subtle personalized differences, they are inseparable from the key words are health tracking, cloud data synchronization and so on.

2, in order to brush the sense of existence and push

This is a typical example of a cross-border vendor at CES, such as Razer and Epson. In addition, domestic handset manufacturers are also a typical representative of the initiative, such as Huawei's talk Band, ZTE at CES and MWC have shown the Grand Watch, cool Cwatch and so on.

These are stays, in addition to showing that there is this product, there is no specific listing and promotion plan. A media colleague who just came back from MWC said that the MWC obviously felt the smart wear products some cooling, Huawei's TalkBand also did not belong to the Glory brand, seemingly just for the release.

(Do you ever see ZTE's smart watch?) ）

3, Intelligent hardware thermal ≠ smart wear heat

Behind the virtual heat of smart wearable products is the lack of real pain point applications, and not everyone needs to monitor how many steps they have walked today, and how much sleep they have a few hours deep.

Another point is that smart hardware is really hot now, but not hot in "wearable." Intelligent home, intelligent health care and automotive intelligent more grounded gas.

A small microcosm is that I saw in the San Francisco Apple retail store, see the Smart Accessories area, in the most obvious position in addition to Fitbit Force and Misfit Shine, is Philips hue smart lights, Nest thermostat This kind of intelligent home products, blood oxygen, blood glucose meter and other medical products, Such products may be smaller, but demand is stronger.

(Smart peripherals in US Apple stores)

That's why Google's 3.2 billion dollar acquisition is Nest, not an intelligent bracelet or watch company.

In other words, the beginning I said is not just sing decline, is that the illusion of prosperity is precisely the industry is on the right track, the participants find the real focus of the shuffle moment, the long-term to solve the real problems of life, improve life and efficiency of the new smart hardware is still a new direction of consumer electronics.