Tamping the rebound Foundation and continuing upward

Huatai Securities Ching Macro data mixed, financial pressure and peripheral market weakness is a major reason for the recent shock finishing, and technical view of the Shanghai Composite Index last 6 July formed 2,600 to 3,000 points of the wide range of shocks also continued to strengthen the market to form a heavier pressure.　　Therefore, we believe that the short-term repeatedly tamping the basis of rebound is still the main theme of the market. A series of key economic data affecting the market was introduced last week, and the massive reduction of credit in April gave the market a big psychological impact.　　But we believe that management will continue to support credit to maintain a high level of growth to ensure that the economy can return to normal development trends, and with the further economic recovery, production activities will be more active, the real economy will gradually improve profitability. In the medium to long term, the high growth of credit scale is still good for the real economy. From the point of view of electricity consumption, in late April, the decline was 3.6%, 4.3% and 3.6%, early May, the use of electricity to increase the decline to 4.35%; As a "barometer" of the national economy, electricity generation and electricity consumption is considered to be an important indicator of the economic trend, and the continued unsatisfactory May data has raised investors ' concern about the economic recovery.　　However, the first quarter of industrial profit data is basically in line with expectations, non-ferrous metals and other 18 sectors have shown signs of improvement in profits. A total of 45 companies in the two cities this week, 15.3 billion shares of restricted shares lifted circulation, Tuesday China Unicom as high as 10.7 billion shares lifted, lifting the market value of 71.8 billion yuan, accounted for the two cities this week all lifted the market value of nearly 60%. In the 20 companies in Shenzhen, the Great Wall development, Heng State shares, Suning appliances, China Baoan and other 8 companies in the lifting amount of more than 1 billion yuan.　　In the market gradually shrinking at the same time, the demand for funds suddenly huge, if the Yangtze River to consider the power of the capital to divert funds, short-term market funds face pressure can not be belittled. And from the recent public offering fund positions look, about 80% of the higher position makes follow-up operation of funds relatively small, funds to change stocks will inevitably trigger the market shocks intensified.　　Big wisdom Statistics, last week the net outflow of funds more than 20 billion yuan, although the market to create a new high, but the price deviation is very obvious, short-term continued turbulence seems inevitable. After two trading weeks of the month pulled up, the Shanghai Composite Index has been close to the platform consolidation zone last 6 July, when the market, after 7 trading weeks of resistance eventually fell and continued to kill, the current lack of continued to do more power, it is expected to be difficult to successfully cross the above platform area of the lower edge of 2600 to 2,650 points.　　And the recent U.S. Dow also encountered resistance near 8,500 points, so the fall of U.S. stocks will also be a big impact on a a-share. We expect that the market will need at least two weeks to deal with the volatility of the index, 2,500 points as the top 2,400 and the recent high of the central axis of the stock index constitutes an important support, repeatedly tamping 2,600 points in order to benefit the bigThe center of the plate continues to walk well.