Tesla Motors announces its first profit in 10 years

Titanium Media Note: We have always been concerned about the rise of emerging technology, but also discussed a good fashion in the tesla,5 of the 29th stock prices and the beginning of a 225% surge, then shook the entire capital sector. Many international scientific and technological media have looked at Tesla from many aspects, and the titanium media is willing to do more anatomy on the capital performance of Tesla in the financial field that we are good at, so we have this article.

The author of this paper is a clumsy Lulian of the mathematical economist who has been concerned about the Internet change, and is one of the earliest authors of titanium media online.

In the first quarter of this year, Tesla (Nasdaq:tsla) announced a 10-year initial profit, followed by a surge in its share price after its main taxi model, Tesla, received its highest rating since the publication of the consumer report. Hit a 114.9 dollar high on May 29, up 225% from the start of the year and a market capitalisation of $12 billion trillion, while BMW, which sells 1.6 million luxury cars, is worth only 47 billion euros. In July, Tesla's share price pushed further up to a 120 dollar high as news of its 90-second replacement battery service came out.

Data show that the 2013-year quarter, Tesla's model S sales of 4,750 units, is the Mercedes-Benz S series of 54.3%,BMW 7 series more than one, and become a large luxury car sales champion in North America. Ultra-expected sales made Tesla's first profit for 10 years. In a letter to shareholders, Tesla said that in the first quarter of 2013 the operating profit was $15 million, excluding Non-cash warrants (Non-cash Warrant) and stock options.

According to GAAP (generally accepted Accounting principles, generally accepted accounting principles) The above factors are considered to be 11 million dollars. Operating income increased by 83%, to $562 million, from the previous quarter.

Tesla's share price was sought after by investors, with the exception of a decade of first-time earnings and Better-than-expected sales, more based on investors ' expectations of Tesla's status as an electric-car revolution leader, while its founder Elon Musk's legendary experience has further underscored its potential for more breakthroughs.

Overvalued value, with innovation

With more than $100 trillion, a quarterly profit of $11 million, 4,900 in the first quarter and a bicycle price of more than 100,000 dollars, Tesla, a Silicon Valley, has recently launched a global whirlwind of global consumer and capital markets. Even an investment agency predicts that Tesla's share price will reach $200 trillion and become an "apple" in the auto industry.

Tesla's whirlwind has further benefited the domestic electric car, lithium battery industry. May, in the context of the concept of Tesla, the concept of new energy vehicles in China began to strengthen, million to Qianchao, BYD, hippocampus cars, hualing star Horse in May, the increase of more than 40%, Rose 46.93%, 43.75%, 44.05%, 43.69% respectively. June 7, spent 800 million yuan into lithium batteries in the field of the big southeast opening soon that will be up to trading, the final report 6.50 yuan/share, up 9.98%. Lithium battery industry also appeared profit improvement expectations, Jiangte motor, gan-feng lithium industry, Tin Qi lithium industry, billion-Wei Li, Desay batteries, such as stock rally in front.

However, the fact that Tesla's electric car sales have never been profitable has been overshadowed by the heat. The first-quarter results showed that, in addition to EV sales, the car's zero-emission index (ZEV) sold as much as $68 million trillion, accounting for 12% of total revenue. In short, Tesla was still at a loss for the first quarter if it were to subtract 68 million of its Zev revenue, relying solely on the profit from the sale of Model S. The Government-subsidized subsidy is due to expire at the end of the year and will have a big impact on Tesla's income. At the same time, Tesla also faces a challenge in sales: The Association of Car dealers in several North American states has filed a lawsuit against it to sell cars directly to users in these states.

Deutsche Bank, while giving Tesla car a rating, but the target price is only 35 dollars, the reason is that "Tesla although the quarterly order flow performance is strong, but to achieve continued profitability is still far away, the current surge in share prices is not driven by the fundamentals of the company, but because of the technical reasons for the stock market, such as short selling shares too high + lending liquidity Limited + borrowing costs and other increases caused. ”

Professor Didier Sornette of Zurich Polytechnic University in Switzerland also believes that Tesla's share price is in high valuations, noting that Tesla's continued rise in equities over the past two months is a classic bubble. Based on the analysis of complexity theory and logarithmic-cycle power-law model (log periodic), they found that Tesla's share price showed a higher trend than that of exponential growth, and the share price contained self-reinforcing positive feedback behavior.

Didier Sornette that the price change of financial market belongs to the self-organization behavior of the complex system, and points out that positive feedback behavior has important and profound significance to the change of asset price, and thus develops a logarithmic cycle power law model to investigate the change and influence of financial asset bubbles.

Clearly, as a breakthrough technology, "smart money" first recognized the value and prospects of the technology, with the influx of funds to push up the share price and drive its credit expansion, to promote the expansion of the technology production. The prospect of high returns and high returns, which in turn attracts investors who are not so clear about the technology, has further boosted the stock's share price, so that there is a classic positive feedback interaction between the investors and the stock prices. At this point, the market is no longer reflected in the potential value of this technology breakthrough but the value of investors to this technology expectations of growth, is the market/technology prospects for investors expected animal spirit: overvalued asset price bubbles that form.

It is clear that Tesla's first-quarter profit and high quality flagship model opened the prospect of a brighter future for electric cars, bringing rising stock prices, and a loosening of good monetary conditions and positive news from the same period, further confirming the presumption Keep investing in this position. It is clear that such a cyclical rise in stock prices will cause some investment/machine to leave the market with a momentary panic.

As a result, Tesla's share price fell in June, with a cumulative decline of more than 14%, as doubts about its profitability increased. By June 21, Tesla claimed to have made a breakthrough in battery replacement: Elon Musk stood on the stage and showed a large group of car owners a way to replace the battery with a Model S in more than 90 seconds, about half the size of a tank of petrol.

This marketing-driven demonstration has once again pushed its share price back to kinetic energy, and has continued to show a trend beyond exponential growth. However, Elon Musk also admits that it is not certain that the design of battery replacement will be included in future models, in other words, this technology is more to obtain consumer trust service layout rather than technical breakthroughs.

Dancing with the foam

There is no doubt that Tesla's car has a benchmarking effect on the development of electric cars, and its Model S is comparable to the model T of Ford Motor Company and has epoch-making significance in the automotive industry. Because of this, this breakthrough brought about by the optimistic sentiment is very contagious, affected by the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market in 5 June a substantial strength, BYD, Desay batteries, lithium billion, such as many electric cars, lithium-related stocks are even a record high.

The impact of the Tesla cyclone on Apple's iphone and the ipad was unconsciously matched by a view that the market share and the demand for electric cars were not negligible as Tesla's charging time dropped, mileage increased and costs fell. And because of this, we have reason to believe that the reaction to Tesla is no longer a potential value for the technology breakthrough, either in the US market or in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, but as an increase in the value that investors expect from this technology.

For this reason, we have compared the trends of Tesla and Desay batteries, lithium-ion energy and related lithium battery indices to the same period. By logarithmic cycle power law model, we find that these stock or index prices show significant positive feedback behavior and further confirm Professor Didier Sornette's judgment on Tesla's stock price trend. Our results show that the market is about to make a judgment and falsification of the future trend of Tesla's stock price as early as the end of July. and the model test of Desay battery, lithium billion, BYD and so on also shows that these stock prices show a trend beyond the exponential growth, in July, there may be a phased trend reversal.

From the fundamentals, the entire lithium-ion battery plate has a price-earnings ratio of 95 times times, further confirming its high valuation status. Obviously, once most investors realize that this positive feedback process (vicious circle) is unsustainable, there will be a lot of selling at the same time, the market will likely be in a state of extreme instability, as in the "Tightrope walking", where a whiff of disturbance (bad news) will result in disorderly or even collapsing stock prices.

Thus, we believe that Tesla's share price and the Tesla concept stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen both show strong bubble characteristics, and the short-term trend depends largely on the animal spirits of the future of electric vehicles. Tesla's whirlwind brought nothing but a vision of a better future for electric cars, and the market's agitation for the Tesla concept is the best popularization and promotion of the technology of the electric vehicle for its future technological development and breakthrough to accumulate more resources.

Figure 1. Tesla's share price trend and LPPL model fitting

Fig. 2. The trend of the stock price and the fitting of LPPL model of Li-Wei

Figure 3. Match the price trend of Desay battery with the LPPL model

What is the future?

Today Tesla model's success is largely due to its expensive car batteries, which cost more than 200 miles of mileage. Clearly, the performance of lithium-ion batteries will be the Achilles heel that restricts Tesla's future.

Although there are many governments, universities and enterprises in the world to invest hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars to study lithium battery technology, in order to solve the battery management system, restricting capacity, uniformity, cycle times, thermal stability and many other bottlenecks, but this process requires more time than expected.

GE Global Battery system director Bill Wallace thinks that battery capacity will rise by around 20% in the next few years, but this trend is hard to have a fundamental impact on battery cost reduction. Therefore, in the light of the stock price trend of Tesla and the "Tesla" concept stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities, we believe that Tesla's share price and its influence have shown its future prospects and are a typical asset bubble. So in the short term, Tesla and its associated "Tesla concept" stocks are at risk of a sharp pullback.

In the long run, however, the possible breakthroughs in the technology of electric vehicles, especially lithium batteries, will bring great convenience and will profoundly change the way people use energy. So with the future breakthrough in lithium-ion battery technology, Tesla and its share price will be highly imaginative. Michael Porter once pointed out that "technological change is not important in itself, but it matters if it affects competitive advantage and industrial structure."

In contrast to the evolution of the E-commerce giant Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and share price changes, we may be able to understand in another dimension the impact of technological innovation and change.

In the history of human civilization, the progress and transformation of information technology and energy technology are two important symbols of the evolution of social civilization: from the initial fire and paper, to the invention of printing and steam engine, to the invention of Morse code and telephone and the large-scale application of electric technology, all profoundly change and subvert people's way of life.

Amazon is the world's first business E-commerce company, founded by Jeffrey Bezos in 1995 and listed in Nasdaq in 1997, after 18 years of development, the 2012 Amazon total sales of 61 billion U.S. dollars, the market value of 120 billion U.S. dollars, Its 12-month p/E ratio is as high as 3000. Since the listing, Amazon's share prices have been maintained overvalued status. In 1999, Amazon, which lost as much as $350 million trillion, was rocked by a "dotcom bubble", with shares in a wide swing between $600-1400 trillion (forte).

And into the 2000 with the "dotcom bubble" faded, Amazon's share price has been all the way down to 66 U.S. dollars (reinstatement price), the cumulative decline of up to 95%. After the "dotcom bubble", Amazon's revenue improved, operating income from 2002 to 3.9 billion U.S. dollars to 2012 of 61 billion U.S. dollars, the annual composite growth rate of more than 30%, while the U.S. social total retail sales average annual growth of less than 5%, retail giant Wal-Mart's annual growth rate of only 7.3%.

As a result, Amazon's share price has gradually stepped out of the trough, steadily rising, even if the 2012 net loss amounted to 39 million U.S. dollars, its share price in 2013 also performed well, around the 3000 U.S. dollar (recovery rights) platform shocks. In the process, Amazon not only has an online sales cost structure, the service experience is superior to the traditional retail enterprise's competitive advantage, but also greatly benefited from the past more than 10 years of the "Internet demographic dividend": Global Internet users from the 1999 only 200 million people grew to today's 2.4 billion people.

The rapid growth of Internet users and the change of these users ' buying habits have promoted the rapid development of e-commerce enterprises such as Amazon, Taobao and Alibaba. And with the progress of network technology and innovation, Amazon has also undergone an iterative transformation, from the simple online retail giants gradually into the cloud computing, large Data Services Navigator, and these are also full of imaginative blue ocean. That is why the market has given Amazon a valuation of up to 3000 P/E.

For Tesla, the construction and coverage of the charging network (supercharger receptacle) will allow Tesla cars to have a high mileage, allowing Tesla cars to Yimapingchuan from California Beng to New York. These supporting infrastructure and service layouts will provide a strong support for Tesla's sales growth, helping to shift the car from the current niche to VW and further expand its revenues. On this basis, Tesla will be a powerful leader in electric vehicles for some time to come, along with the possible advances and breakthroughs in technology, such as a sharp reduction in charging time, increased battery capacity and a rise in Tesla's own productivity.

At the same time, not only is the Model S widely popular, its concept car Model X also has dazzling performance, further indicating that Tesla's potential to subvert the automotive industry. With the traditional automotive companies such as GE, Ford and other power management systems, automotive design cooperation, and Google and other in the field of intelligent automotive cooperation, as well as the unique industry chain service model, all show that Tesla in the future there is the possibility of iterative innovation. Tesla car can experience the baptism of capital Bubbles, Phoenix Nirvana become a real king, only time to test. (This is the exclusive starting titanium media)