Tesla tries to hold the battery production of one of the electric car cores firmly in hand

Absrtact: Tesla announced huge sums in February to build a super battery factory gigafactory. As the current most popular manufacturer of electric cars, Tesla's attempt to hold the battery production of one of the core electric vehicles firmly in hand is normal. But it seems that a lot of people don't like it.

Tesla announced huge sums in February to build a super battery factory--gigafactory. As the current most popular manufacturer of electric cars, Tesla's attempt to hold the battery production of one of the core electric vehicles firmly in hand is normal. However, it seems that many people are not very optimistic about the investment, feel the risk is very high, but I think it is a very necessary and sensible investment.

The sound of questioning

The biggest question is whether Tesla could reach 500,000 annual sales in 2020 to digest Gigafactory's huge output.

In fact, we did not notice the math problem in Tesla's prediction, even if the 500,000 sales, and can not digest the gigafactory supply. As shown above, in addition to the 35GWH General battery supply, gigafactory only pack (battery) supply reached 50GWh, to model S 85kwh battery pack to calculate, model S to reach 588,000 of the sales to digest the battery pack, and Tesla mainly used to pull sales of the three-generation model design range is about 320 kilometers, that is, and 60kwh Model S, plus three generations of volume quality will be less than Model S, The battery pack design capacity of three generations of vehicles is certainly not more than 60kwh. By that, even Tesla's 500,000 annual sales could only digest about 65% of Gigafactory's output.

Is this an expected error? Obviously not! To digest the capacity of gigafactory, there are two possible ways: one, to upgrade the battery capacity of the three-generation models; second, Tesla prepared 1.5 times times the sales of batteries for the market.

From the current market reaction, Tesla has absolutely no need to upgrade the battery capacity of the three-generation models. This will further reduce the profit margins of the three-generation models that are not high, and control prices are among the most important of the three-generation models. In fact, the 320-kilometer range is enough to meet the daily use of most ordinary families. For long-distance travel, the 320-kilometer and 480-kilometer endurance is not much different. In this way, the future gigafactory capacity and Tesla's sales are really targeted, it only means that Tesla prepared 1.5 times times for the market battery pack redundancy (why?) We'll explain later.

Another risk that has been repeatedly mentioned is the progress of battery technology, which may lead to gigafactory technology falling behind and being eliminated.

However, Tesla has his own battery research laboratory, believe that gigafactory technology, even if not a trans-era, at least the current leading technology, and a short period of battery technology breakthrough, although there are reports, but the real conversion to the scale of production may not be a short time to do. Of course, there is a certain risk, but Tesla has a reason to have to build gigafactory.

Second, gigafactory can recycle waste batteries, reduce battery cost

One thing many people don't notice is that gigafactory can recycle used batteries. In the Gigafactory flow chart (see above) can be seen, gigafactory can be used to recycle waste batteries. 2020 is the 8 anniversary of Model S on the market, and Tesla's battery warranty is 8 years. After 8 years, users can replace a new battery pack at a very low price. In other words, starting in 2020, there will be a large number of expired batteries, and because of the old replacement policy, these used batteries will almost all flow back to the Tesla, and lithium battery recycling is profitable, but used to collect waste batteries is very troublesome, it is difficult to reach a sufficient scale to gain profits.

And that's not a problem for Tesla. 2020 years later, Tesla will only be worried about the lack of capacity to deal with the waste batteries, and there is no need to worry about the source and collection of used batteries. Therefore, even without gigafactory, the establishment of a large enough waste battery recovery system, for the maintenance of Tesla's environmental protection and service image is also very necessary. The recycled raw materials are undoubtedly necessary to produce new batteries, further reducing the cost of manufacturing the batteries. With cheap raw materials and huge demand for batteries, Gigafactory's establishment is a logical one.

Third, to prop up the future of electric vehicles, to rely on the coverage of a wide range of charging network and hundreds of thousands of of the annual car sales

Before explaining the redundancy of the 1.5 times-fold battery pack, let's imagine the future of electric cars. If we have a quantity comparable to a gas station, we can add electricity as fast as refueling, our car is out of power to go into a power station and spend 3-5 minutes filling up with electricity. Under this condition, compared to the petrol car, electric vehicles in the mute, acceleration, no shift duncuo, maintenance simple, cheap energy (usually at home) and other aspects have a huge advantage, and the positioning of the three-generation model is to break the final price barrier, although the mileage shorter, but also nothing more than a few more to add power station just. In the absence of competitors to launch a competitive model and the corresponding power network, 500,000 of the annual sales fear is still limited by the conservative estimate of capacity.

Look at the status of Model S in the United States. Tesla has now done the electric car across the United States, the 2015 charging network can cover the entire United States, but there are still many gaps in the electric car tour of the United States. With the number of the Model S to increase the amount of supercharger in line with the charging thing has happened, and at the same time to several Model S charge, charging time was greatly extended. Want to open Model S to do long-distance travel is not no good, just to do a full route planning and have enough patience in the supercharger waiting for the completion of the charge, this can not be a friendly user experience.

With the introduction of the third generation of vehicles in the future, this queuing will only become more and more serious, and positioning in the $35000 third-generation models, obviously do not want to be the home of alternative cars or rich toys. Ordinary people would want a car that might have to be charged for half an hour in an emergency, or a 1-hour line on a trip?

After all, luxury cars have limited sales, want to achieve 500,000 of sales, three-generation models I am afraid to have nearly 400,000 annual sales to do. Three-generation model positioning B-Class sedan, 2013 the world's best-selling 10 models, the only B-Class sedan is the Camry, 720,000. It is hard for Tesla to reach the global popularity of Toyota in just 6 years, so it is good to occupy North America, Europe and Asia. In this case, without the assistance of the Fast Energy Supplement network, it is very difficult to achieve this sales.

I have analyzed the previous article, for a long time, charging technology is less than 5 minutes of fast energy supplement. Don't say it doesn't make sense, with petrol cars fueling speed and mileage, gas station coverage is still up to this scale, and it's a good indication of how much it takes to dispel people's mileage worries.

Four, to Tesla business virtuous circle, gigafactory is a key link

So, the fantasies mentioned above can only be imagined? Not necessarily.

Tesla himself has the speed of the fuel-switching technology, so the establishment of a nationwide coverage of the electricity network possible? In big cities, the charge pile is increasing, and the daily driving in the city can be satisfied with the charge, just a few major import and export to build a power station. All it takes is a road network.

In fact, if you just change the power, there is a good thing is that the power grid is not needed. Therefore, a change of power station, regardless of the battery pack factor, its cost is not more than supercharger. More cost-saving is that Tesla only needs to woo a fast-food chain or supermarket with a wide coverage. Next to them to provide a change of service on it, and supercharger different is that the electricity is charged, but also quite expensive, this part of the profits can be given to the cooperation of the chain stores in exchange for their joining.

And more realistically, Tesla does not need to do that in 2020, giving a plan, and drawing a pie for the crowd is enough. What people need is a promise to the future, and when to cash it, it's not that anxious, is it? After all, urgent long-distance travel is not common, and planned travel, the arrangement of charging time is not a very painful thing. As long as I know that in the near future my car can be unimpeded enough to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of people to buy electric cars. As for the battery depreciation problem, Tesla's current solution is to reduce the number of supplements, or the battery back, this is very cumbersome, the future should be adjusted.

Now, from our fantasies to reality, only the last and most crucial point: the cost of a cheap and adequate battery pack redundancy. And Gigafactory's huge capacity is just about all that's possible.

The establishment of a power supply network has led to sales of electric cars, which have led to the emergence of gigafactory, further reducing battery costs and lower battery costs, which have boosted the coverage of higher power networks, resulting in more car sales. The most crucial part of this perfect virtuous cycle is gigafactory, which is why Tesla has built such a large battery factory at all costs.