T.h.capital maintain a good future stock holding rating

Beijing time October 21 Evening News, investment company T.h.capital today issued an investment report to maintain a good future stock (NYSE:XRS) "Hold" rating.

The following is a summary of the contents of the report:

A good future will be released in the U.S. Eastern Time October 22, 2013 before the U.S. stock market opened in the second quarter of 2014 financial results. We believe that as the number of students grows strongly, the revenue for the next fiscal quarter will be at least as expected. At the same time, due to the growth of ARPU (per-user average revenue), we expect a positive third-quarter performance forecast in the good future.

The number of small-class students is growing strongly: a good future predicts that revenue will grow by 41.1% to 47.4% in the second quarter. Our findings show a significant increase in the number of students attending classes (the number of students attending classes may be higher than the number of students enrolled because one student can attend multiple courses). We expect that the number of students attending classes in a good future will probably grow by about 90% a quarter. But at the same time, the ARPU of small classes may fall to about 10%. So we expect small-class revenues to grow by about 70% or more each quarter. That would push the future total revenue higher than the industry's expected $90.1 million trillion, and the diluted earnings per share would be higher than Wall Street and our expected $0.28 trillion.

Third-quarter earnings are expected to be at least as flat as Wall Street's expectations: Our data suggest that the future third-quarter guidance revenue is expected to be higher than Wall Street's expectations. The number of students in small class classes may fall by 41%, but ARPU will grow by 28% a quarter. As a result, small-class revenues may fall by 25% per cent, but better than Wall Street's expected decline of 31.5%.

"Learn to think" renamed "Good Future": in the near future, the Chinese name from "Learn to think" change to "good future". We believe that, in addition to testing purposes, the new brand aims to attract more students. Compared with "Learn to think", the new name is not well-known, it takes a long time to obtain recognition.

Adjustment of performance expectations: We will be good for the next fiscal quarter revenue forecast from 80.3 million U.S. dollars to 90.5 million U.S. dollars. Based on non-US GAAP, the projected earnings per share is expected to increase from USD 0.23 to $0.28. For the entire 2014 fiscal year, we have projected revenue from USD 283.5 million to $290.7 million, and the projected earnings per share is expected to increase from 0.60 US dollars to 0.67 dollars.

Valuation: We continue to maintain a "hold" rating for the future stock.