The biggest subversion of mobile phones will not come from the phone itself!

Kevin Kelly, author of Runaway, Kelly the 2014 Zhejiang Business Conference and the Mobile Internet Summit, and gave a 1.5-hour speech to the "runaway" speaker. Around the theme of subversive technology, KK's
Kelly (Kevin Kelly), author of Runaway "in a speech

Kelly, author of Runaway, Kevin Kelly the 2014 Zhejiang Business Conference and the Mobile Internet Summit, and gave a 1.5-hour speech.

Around the theme of "Subversive technology", KK's speech is mainly composed of three parts, the first part cited the Honda Subversion general, Microsoft Subversion IBM, Google subversion Microsoft similar cases, pointing out the subversive forces of external and marginal innovation. The second part of KK gives what he sees as the commonality of marginal innovation: low quality, high risk, low profit, small market, has not been confirmed by the market, KK points out, it is precisely because of these commonalities in large companies within the edge of innovation has become relatively difficult, so many subversive innovative technology in fact, mostly from the outside, In the external-style innovation, the leader is a large number of start-up companies that were initially overlooked by big companies. Finally, KK enumerates the technologies that he believes will be disruptive to the future based on mobile internet, such as large data, deep learning, voice intelligence, monitoring equipment, 3D printing, artificial intelligence, peer-to-peer, virtual currency, etc.

In the view of the many frontiers offered by KK, KK Some of China's views are worth pondering, KK said, China's mobile internet development will help China in this area of technology to reach the world level, China's unique manufacturing background, will help China to become the 3D printing technology leader.

After a panoramic scan of those subversive techniques, KK gives his summary of the current development pattern, and in this intriguing remark, you can see the secret of KK becoming KK.

"The future is unbelievable, it has to be often believed impossible, the greatest product of the 20 years has not been discovered, so you are not too late." KK said.

The following is "good company" reporters on the scene of KK speech finishing.

kk:1800 years, sailing is considered a high-tech, it uses the free energy wind to sail, while the first steamer is small, short and expensive, unreliable, but it is unique to be able to drive upstream, but after continuous improvement (relentless improvement), The Steam ship technology is becoming more mature, the cost is lower, the sailing boat began to decline, the steam ship has squeezed out the market; In 1946, Detroit had the most High-tech car, when Japan's Honda put the electric system on the bike, Detroit thought it insignificant, just a toy, to 1963 years, Cadillac World's top , GM's profits were high, and Mr. Honda created the first Honda, Detroit not paying attention, and they felt it was just a small project. However, after continuous improvement, Honda is becoming more and more advanced, smaller cars are more efficient than traditional carts, and as a result, GM is bankrupt and Honda is making a profit; another example is that the printing industry is made up of small dots, and the printing business does not consider the matrix, and after continuous improvement, the dot matrix of the clunky press has been replaced by a line. Another example, IBM's technology was very advanced, no one can enemy, but there is a University of Altair, the humble project is made by Bill Gates, IBM completely ignored him, after continuous improvement, with Microsoft's Windows. IBM was subverted by a software company, not a computer manufacturing company. Just as the hardware software is monopolized by IBM and Microsoft, and everything seems impossible, Google comes out, the search engine is despised by Microsoft, they underestimate the ability to search, Google is now more than a search engine. Now, which company can subvert Google, Apple, Facebook,dropbox, Tencent, Alibaba (rolling information)?

So disruptive technology is always happening, and it comes from a marginal place. It has undergone initial innovation, continuous improvement, to achieve the minimum customer satisfaction, suddenly opened the market. At first, these disruptive technologies have these characteristics: low quality, high risk, low profit, small market, unproven. No one wants to enter. But startups have no choice because they don't have the money, the customers and the technology. These fringe areas are a breakthrough for startups, which is why startups can easily subvert our current technology.

Company development has a maximum moderation (maximize fitness): Growing to the point where the highest degree of fitness is achieved, and disruptive technology takes place at the bottom, at very low levels of adaptability, it approaches destruction, bankruptcy and failure, and most startups are forced to stay in these lots. All companies want high profits, but now there is a "rugged landscape", you see the highest peaks, and tomorrow there will be more precipice peaks, another area will have newer technology and create the emergence: You are sailing, suddenly appear steam boat, you are big car, suddenly appear the car, you are doing traditional printing, Suddenly there was digital printing. Here, you have to "reduce the differentiation (devolve to different)": After the company reached its peak, it was necessary to lower its own field, to the marginal region, to produce differentiation. Big companies with high profit margins may not accept it if they try to marginalize it, because it is close to destruction and it is hard for big companies and winners to produce disruptive technology.

The biggest subversion of mobile phones will not come from the phone itself! Subversion must come from the outside. Let me tell you something about disruptive technologies outside the mobile phone industry:

I. Large data age: 2050, the amount of information will be millions trillion trillion, big beyond the scope of our description, its expansion is explosive, so your business is now a data business! New time and scale numerical operations, we are in the beginning of a new era: the customer's data and your customers as valuable, to maintain data mobility, to ensure that it can be shared

Two. Cloud: Shared resources, cloud computing and cloud storage have a network effect: the 1000-square data adds up to two 500-squared data, so create larger social networks and cloud reserves. Cloud data is unlimited (as-if-infinity), exponential growth, and its cost to zero (As-if-zero), falling. So there are very important numbers: 0 and no limits. Now is the integration of "a cloud", the right to use no longer limited, can easily access, access rights (access) than ownership (ownership) better, do not buy things, directly buy access rights.

Three. Quantifying Life (quantified-self): Technology products can record tracking of body, life, behavior, health, wearable equipment, quantizer, implanted body, anything you can quantify that people are already using. Health sensors, Apple's smart watch, can change drug use. After medical life, you will have a basic concept of whether you are healthy or not. You can control your blood lipids, heart rate and so on, you can see signs of illness, so that you know what is your normal state. You can also use genetic data to make personalized drugs that specialize in your production.

Four. Ubiquitous tracking: Cameras everywhere, digital surveillance plus 6 billion camera phones. Once something interesting happens, someone records it, puts it in the cloud, we volunteer to be recorded and tracked, social networks can automatically search our location, monitor each other, we know who is positioning themselves, who is tracking, this is two-way interaction.

Five. Wearable equipment: Google Glasses and contact lenses, technology innovation on clothing, touch clothes, touch the body, detect your posture, correct posture, etc., this kind of product can help the disabled, use these products, you can see the real world on the data world, you can get the data of these real things, At the same time perceive the virtual world and the real world.

Six. New interface: In the Minority Report, Tom Cruise uses his body to link data and sign instructions, "Iron Man" Likewise, little Donnie touches a virtual 3D image with his finger. And now Samsung Galaxy can track your eye range, you see where it knows. Eye-tracking technology, which is used to analyze readers ' concerns, automatically adapt to size, such as watching movies automatically adjust the screen, analysis of emotions. All the things you gaze at are watching you (anything, look in will looks back in you). Voice control, IBM is developing a software that tells the phone what to do by voice, real-time translation. Brain computer, put on a helmet to control things through consciousness, this technology is not mature, these things are not too mainstream, very marginalized, more like toys. But they are disruptive technologies.

Seven. NET real Technology (TelePresence): For example, doctors can virtual imaging and then diagnosis, and Oculus Rift glasses, wear Oculus Rift glasses, 360 degrees immersed in medicine, games, undersea exploration, space exploration will bring subversion. Doctor put on Google Glass, remote diagnostics. Our lives have ubiquitous screens, buildings, screens on the back of the plane, and even bending and turning, and there will be more screens in the future. A person has three or four screens above, this is a multi screen era. In E-books, the tradition is tablet, but if the screen can be bent, it can also be leafed like a paper book. There is even a screen-free display: It appears on Windows and windshields. We are screen people (arranges of the screens): no longer surrounded by books and text, but surrounded by screens.

Eight 3D printing: 3D Improved very quickly, it is in the subversion of manufacturing, not only make giant machines, there are gadgets. Shapes that cannot be completed by manufacturing can be completed. Large industrial products can be printed. The 3D printer can even print itself. The hardware equals the software, and the material can run like the software. China will be the leader in 3D printing. It is a disruptive technology to solve the manufacturing problem.

Nine. Artificial intelligence (artificial smartness), I do not have to FDI, because we need more intelligent than intelligence. We have an increasingly intelligent intelligence system, such as Siri, driverless cars and unmanned aerial vehicles, which are better able to use these machines than humans. It is not a conscious and emotional creature, but a very intelligent and sensitive machine that can do two things at the same time, smarter than human beings. This intelligent service for the cloud, you can buy this intelligence, from the cloud to get, do not need to make their own. The point is, what will you do with it when you buy it? Can be translated, can play games and so on. This will create a network effect, the more people with AI, the smarter, the smarter, the more convenient.

10. Electronic currency: Past money as a value, now, money as a communication tool: sharing, cooperation, tracking, dissemination, annotation, identification. Bitcoin is a cryptographic currency that enables Peer-to-peer network lending platforms. E-Wallet shows more money as a communication tool

Eleven. Cyber security: Opportunities are also threats, such as Facebook's real name, iphone fingerprint authentication, the country's cyber war, smartphone malware, and so on.

12. Public: is a way of market research, as well as equity, the company can be raised by consumers.

What is the future of mobile phone? It is smaller, more intimate, in clothes, in the body. The future is unbelievable and must always be believed to be impossible, and the greatest product of the 20 years has not yet been invented. So, you're not too late.