The "chaos" tactic will still dominate the market

The author in last week's article once pointed out that 2,600 point should not "fear high" to a certain extent is a pseudo proposition, because "fear of heights" or not depends entirely on the point, mainly depends on the "situation", also depends on the market there is no money that is worth buying the variety.　　This week, the market to create a new year high, the big pattern is still a shock city, hot spots in the rotation, although still "leading a day or two", but believe that the "chaos" pattern in the short term will not change fundamentally. One of the most obvious changes on the plate this week is the apparent start of a strong market share from coal, real estate, to banks, steel, and then to petrochemical double-hung, although its stage of increase appears to be no subject-matter stocks so conspicuous, but the formation of a strong pattern so that many market participants again came to the "style conversion success" conclusion, Large-cap stocks, which are significantly below the market average, will have the impulse to "fix valuations upward" and then infer that the index will enter the main wave. If this conclusion is set up, once the big market weights collective dance, then imagine how the index?　　The impact of 3,000 points should be a cinch, but it may not be. What is the concept of "style conversion"? I am afraid this is a question of "the beholder, the benevolent". Is it defined by the size of the dish? or by the industry weight to divide? Or is there any "subject matter" to identify? Careful observation can be found that, as of this Thursday, the industry Index of Mining (coal), real Estate Index in the year's rise has exceeded 85%, can you say that their gains are small? The doubling of shares in the plate is everywhere, I am afraid it is difficult to "only small stocks, subject shares rose much" conclusion. So what's a "style shift"? I think, at least because PetroChina rose a day, the bank shares on the thought is "style conversion", in fact, a lot of the rising trend of the stock market has been maintained, but has not been more attention, "style conversion" to a certain extent is also a " Pseudo proposition. "　　This week the strength of large stocks only further strengthen the overall market of the strong pattern, or large stocks also obviously joined the "hot rotation" of the camp. Then will the accession of large-cap stocks lead to changes in capital flows?　　In other words, will it cause the recurrence of the "28" or even "19" phenomenon? Although some economic data on the chain, but the chain data itself "ups and downs" characteristics and lower cardinal reasons, is destined to the next stage of the chain growth will be significantly lower, the overall economic stability can not be equated with the reversal, hovering at the bottom of the possibility of a long time can not be ruled out.　　In this case, the hope that the fundamental drive of the big rally is still unrealistic, that is to say, the stock market in the bull market to lead the status of the probability is still very small, the active basis at this stage is "liquidity" and the size of the "valuation" bias between the stock. "Liquidity" is still an indisputable fact, so the current "valuation" bias between large market stocks and small plate stocks is not a small space, if the small stocks maintain the value unchanged, then the marketCan the expected rise in the stock is not very substantial? Investors need to be reminded that a considerable portion of the large market stocks can be "valued", such as banks, steel, coal and so on, and they have been "valuation system" support or repression, beyond the valuation of the backbone of too much, whether in the center or above, will be at a certain point of time to trigger "return."　　But a lot of so-called "subject stock", you can not give them valuation, capital is also a fancy this feature, in the capital to promote the market, the vitality of such stocks is very tenacious, but not individual phenomenon. If we accept that the current market is in the "liquidity" sufficient premise of the money to promote the market, is a "bubble" process, then the disk to give you the feeling will be "chaos", the funds will still be in different groups to maneuver.　　If you must find "style conversion" of the boundary point, must use the valuation system to each plate or even each stock to locate, must find the strict investment logic, the result must be wasted, or even outweigh the gains. "Chaos" word tactic since will also be the use of money non-stop, then investors should try to "win in chaos", the key is to throw away the index, grasp a stock, do not need to demand is large stocks or subject stocks, only to obtain stage income can be. (Author email: wlwlo@163.com)