The CICC report said November CPI rose to 4.8% after the first quarter of next year

On the evening of November 25, CICC released its macroeconomic report today, saying that despite the recent rise in prices beyond expectations, the overall moderate inflation is expected next year, CPI inflation in November may rise to about 4.8%, next year will fall after 1 quarters, 2 times in the next six months to raise interest rates slightly. The CICC report predicts that inflation is still likely to be high in the next few months, mainly reflecting demand pressures and the inertia momentum of rising agricultural prices, with CPI inflation expected to rise to around 4.8% in November, although December will rebound in the 1 quarter due to a possible pullback in the base effect,　　may be to 4.5-5.0%.　　Comparing the current round of inflation with the two inflation cycles of the past 10 years (2003/04 and 2007/08), the report said that inflation was judged to fall after 1 quarters next year. Policy-control measures have recently been introduced, focusing mainly on quantitative tools for interbank liquidity management and control of credit growth, in part to increase capital inflows. For the future policy trend, CICC maintained 2011-year M2 growth target of about 16%, the next six months there are 2 small interest rate points.　　CICC expects 2011 monetary conditions to be tighter than 2010, but not too tight. CICC raised its 2010 growth forecast modestly, from 10% to 10.2%, reflecting strong growth since the 3rd quarter. The impact of policy regulation on growth will gradually show up in the second half of 2011, while reducing the quarter-on-quarter growth in the 3rd and 4 quarters of 2011 to 8.5% (earlier forecasts are around 9%), compared with more than 9% in the year.　　As a result of a 4-quarter base increase in 2010, the forecast for 2011 annual growth of 9.3% was maintained. With inflation still high in the short term, CICC is expected to raise its average inflation forecast to 4.3% next year. Demand pressures (output gaps) will gradually slow in 2011, with inflation expected to fall below 4% per cent by the end of 2011, when it is projected to be low by the year before. (Yuanping from Beijing)