The city dream rate of Huayi Brothers

The author of the old Cold/Wen Hua Brothers (300027, shares bar) (300027). SZ) is a film and television production, distribution, hospital line and film City as one of the integrated private entertainment Group, the share price has risen more than 300% this year, in the run-up to the stock price, the company's major shareholders and other senior executives through the two-tier market has been reducing jiliuyongtui. Because of the possession of the technology (300315, shares bar) (300315.　　SZ) float nearly 2 billion yuan, but reduce the interest of the money was immediately Huayi brothers spend out.　　Capital market created by the city dream rate, given to the big shareholder is true gold and silver, and waiting for small shareholders can only be a dream wake up. Executive Jiliuyongtui over the past 5 years, Huayi Brothers ' income growth rate has reached 42%, slightly higher than the domestic total box office 39% and domestic film box office 36% of the composite growth rate.　　But the compound growth rate of 5 years is only 33%, which is obviously lower than the growth rate of income.　　Although revenues and profits have grown faster, Huayi Brothers ' Roe has only been 13% for nearly two years, and is not high in a-shares. September 2, Huayi Brothers issued a notice, to buy Zhang state-controlled Zhejiang Chang 70% of the stake, a cost of 252 million yuan. Zhejiang Chang May 2013 just set up, the book net worth of only 10 million yuan, but Huayi acquisition of the valuation reached 360 million yuan, a premium of 35 times times. One of the Ka-wood culture held in Zhejiang Province, 10% of the shares of the stock with cash of 36 million yuan to pay; Zhang Guoli listened control of the Hong-li-holding of the constant rise of the star in Zhejiang 60%　　The equity equivalent of 216 million yuan, divided into two parts of the payment, part of the cash 64 million yuan, another part of 152 million yuan, then asked Zhang Guoli listened to buy Huayi major shareholder Wang Zhongjun, Wang Zhonglei hold the stake, according to the prevailing market prices can buy 3 million shares.　　This plan is in fact the big shareholder reduce 3 million shares or 152 million yuan, Zhang Guoli received 64 million cash and 3 million shares of Huayi, and listed companies are paid 252 million yuan, buy the next national 5 years franchise. The company issued a new announcement on September 10, as the market questioned the large shareholder's joint interests with Zhang State.　　It is proposed that the 152 million yuan received by Zhang State be used to increase the shares of Huayi in the level two market, while the Wang Zhongjun brothers timing themselves to reduce their shares, and the relationship between buying and reducing stocks will be separated, but the actual result is not quite the same. Prior to this, Huayi Brothers had frequent reduction of executives, since 2013 has accumulated 760 million yuan, plus the proposed reduction of 152 million yuan, the total amount of more than 900 million yuan.　　Its large shareholder Wang Zhongjun, Wang Zhonglei Brother's shareholding ratio has dropped to 31.6% (not calculated to reduce the 152 million yuan), the proportion of control has been at a low level. Bad operating cash flow Huayi Brothers 2013.5 Annual report shows net profit of 402 million yuan, but nearly 80% from the sale of palm Technology's equity earnings. At present, the company still holds 42.41 million shares of technology, the current market value of nearly 1.6 billion yuan。 The company should receive the sum of advance and the total amount of inventory of 2 billion yuan, deducted from the receipt of the difference and 2012 years of income, the cash cycle of nearly a year, which led to its operating cash flow is very bad.　　In the past 5 years Huayi's operating cash flow accumulated negative 440 million yuan, the free cash flow accumulation is negative 800 million yuan, calculates the equity investment expense, its IPO raise capital 1.2 billion yuan already exhausted. July 24, Huayi Brothers announced 15 times times the net assets Premium acquisition of the Silverside Technology 50.88% stake, Do the price 672 million yuan (PE about 12 times times, because this year is expected to increase the profit of 9 times times, otherwise is 100 times times PE), of which 224 million to the original shareholder of Silverside Technology to pay 7.61 million shares, and 448 million yuan to pay in cash.　　At the same time, the specific investors targeted additional 8.45 million shares, 224 million yuan to raise funds as silverside future development supporting funds. Plus the September 2 announcement of the proposed acquisition of Zhang Guoli listened Li Chang will also cost 252 million yuan, so that the company's six months of reimbursement on the 900 million yuan in cash will be left.　　According to this trend, it is estimated that the company will continue to reduce the interest in the technology, on the one hand, to prepare for the 2014 refinancing. And the company's current market value of up to 34 billion yuan, PE more than 60 times times, PB more than 10 times times. 2012 China-made film total box office only 8.3 billion yuan, if the production of the issuer of 40%, that is 3.3 billion yuan, according to Huayi's 20% sales net interest rate to calculate the profit can reach 660 million yuan.　　If the 30 times times PE calculation, then Huayi Brothers only use 20 billion yuan, will be able to buy the entire domestic film industry, the remaining 14 billion yuan can also buy all the Chinese TV dramas.　　The quantity Whippany analysis of the cinema Huayi Brothers is the main business of the upstream production side, and closely related to the downstream, hospital Line Cinema profit status? Take 2012 years of data as an example, the calculation of attendance is: assuming that each screen has 120 seats, a daily row 6, the average fare of 36 yuan (2011, the median price of 36 yuan, 2012 36.4 yuan, the average in the first half of 2013). Then 2012 national cinemas full Income for "(9286+13118)/2" x120x6x36=2.9 billion, and 2012 daily actual box office income of 17.07 billion yuan/day 366 days = 47 million yuan/days, so, 2012 attendance for 0.47/2.9 =　　16.1%.　　The assumption of an average of 120 seats per screen and 6 games per day is relatively conservative, so actual attendance may be lower. We will make a simple "volume-profit" model for the cinema, assuming: 1. Two or three-line city location of the General theater, single seat fixed assets, decoration and other initial investment costs 10,000 yuan, a cinema by 5 yuan screen 600 seats counted, the total investment of 6 million yuan. According to 5 years amortization, 100,000 yuan per month; 2. Rental of electricity and water and low consumption of 100,000 yuan per month; 3. Wages and other monthly 10$1-3 Total, with a basic fixed expenditure of about $300,000; 4. The average fare of 36 yuan, plus 10% of the sales and advertising revenue, by the price of 40 yuan; 5. Assuming the fare gross profit margin 50% (assuming the studios and the hospital lines are 50%, the tax and Development fund 8.3%, the producer and the distribution of 41.7%); 6.　　Each screen every day row 6, that is 3,600 seats a day, 108,000 seats per month, excluding equipment failure and maintenance, monthly according to 100,000 seats calculated, full month is 4 million yuan.　　Then: 1. Capital preservation Sales Shadow votes =300000/(40x50%) = 15,000 seats; Capital preservation sales are 300,000/50%=60 million; 2. Capital Preservation Attendance = 15,000 seat/100,000 = 15%; 3. Excess of the capital preservation amount, beyond the portion of 50% is the income tax before the profit. Judging from the amount of the Single Act, the peak of 1.63 million yuan in 2010, the decline in the past two years, shows that the growth of new cinemas faster than the number of visitors and box-office growth. This has led to a significant drop in attendance over the past two years, close to 15% of the capital preservation Point.　　Also that is, the theater's profitability is significantly reduced, the overall has fallen to the break-even line level, the situation is not optimistic. The location of the theater and internal management of the attendance has an impact, but decided to the main factors of attendance, one is the date and time, such as the holiday is significantly higher than the working day, night and day difference is very large; the second is the quality of the film, a good piece of votes difficult to find, and For example, 2012 domestic 745 story, screening 227, import film 76, the total screening of 303 films. 17.07 billion yuan in the total box office, the top 5 of the film is 4.46 billion yuan, accounting for 26%, the top 20 of the film total 9.81 billion yuan, accounting for 57%.　　Less than 2% of the film accounted for 26% of the total box office, less than 7% of the number of films accounted for more than half of the box office.　　Therefore, to improve the profit of cinemas, the key is to increase attendance, to increase attendance, the key is to increase the number of days of work day and improve the quality of film production. At present, the average fare for Chinese cinemas is about 36 yuan, which seems to be cheaper than the average U.S. ticket price of about 49 yuan (8 US dollars), but the dollar's GDP per capita is more than 8 times times that of China, so in terms of individual consumption capacity, China's fares are actually 6 times times that of the United States.　　On the one hand, the vast majority of people want to see the film in the average two years to enter the cinema, on the other hand, 85% of the theater seats are vacant for a long time, this is a very abnormal state. If the price can be drastically reduced, then attendance is expected to be a certain increase, and related to the sale of goods and advertising revenue can also increase. In the movie theater income and the profit invariable premise, can satisfy the masses of people's view shadow demand.　　But in any case, the theater's profitability is difficult to improve significantly. In the last three years, newly opened theaters, due to poor geographical location and increased competition, as well as the process of early market cultivation, so overallCertainly less than 15% of the capital preservation attendance, guaranteed losses, some mismanagement of the theater, even cash flow can not be made positive.　　What, conversely, is the case with the producers and distributors upstream? Film Production business model is not ideal for a film and television works, from the early stage of the filming to the post-production, all the costs must be advanced by the producer, the film released before the issuer to do the promotion, and the sale of the collection to wait until the play after the box office, this time span of more than a year,　　This leads to a strain on the producers ' capital chain. And, the final sale of film and television is a very uncertain thing, the income can not be predicted, the cost is already in the first set, so from a profit point of view there is a great risk.　　Some of the most famous film companies in the United States, because of a big investment in a film but ultimately not box-office, which led to the entire company into trouble, and even the final takeover has happened many times, the less well-known small companies are not to mention. Domestic film situation is also not optimistic, 2012 altogether produced 745 story, can show 227, accounted for 30%, the box office over billion only 21, accounted for less than 3%, of which over 200 million yuan box office only 6 department. The 100 million-dollar box office, the studios divided into less than 40 million yuan, excluding writers, producers, directors, actors and other kinds of shooting costs, how much profit?　　And the remaining 97%, which is less than 100 million of the 724 movie? From the perspective of enterprise competitiveness, the production side of the downstream box office income can not be determined, and competition between peers, if the import of the introduction of a complete release, domestic film market share will be significantly reduced.　　And the producers of the upstream directors and actors have no pricing ability, the audience is the actor and director, not the production side, in the long run, the producer is basically to work for actors and directors, which is similar to sports, the club has few money, the stars are sky-high income. Some people think that the 2012 China Film Total box office only 17 billion yuan (equivalent to the U.S. dollar 2.7 billion), and the U.S. box office is 4 times Times China, up to 10.8 billion U.S. dollars, indicating that there is still a large space for growth.　　If a head count, the United States per capita annual movie box office 34 U.S. dollars, is the Chinese per capita 2 U.S. dollars 17 times times, the space is bigger. But the author thinks, uses the GDP as the weighting to compare will be objective some, after all, consumes has the capability. Since U.S. GDP is close to twice times China's, the total box office in China is actually only 1 time times the size of growth. In other words, the Chinese film industry's high growth era is about to pass, and into the slow growth of maturity.　　So, 30 times times the aforementioned PE divided by 2, there are still 15 times times the PE. It is also said that China's domestic films can be exported like American films, the space is very large.　　Film belongs to the cultural and creative industries, is the embodiment of values, China is afraid for the time being difficult to export value to the United States it? The author is the chief analyst of three Chuan earnings Research Institute