The combination of beer industry and three major leading or "left"

Every reporter Mao Jinnan researcher believes that after the integration of China's beer industry, quality Beer Company's profitability will be greatly improved, green beer, snowflakes and yanjing is most likely to become the future integration after the "left."　　2008, although the beer industry in the integration period, but still give investors a satisfactory performance answer, the two leading Qingdao beer (600600, closing price of 24.73 yuan), yanjing beer (000729, closing price of 13.82 Yuan) in 2008 earnings respectively increased by 25.34% and 12.6%. After entering the 2009, the pace of the integration of the beer industry has obviously accelerated. Carlsberg was let Sichuan Blue Sword Investment Management Co., Ltd. held a 41% stake in the Blue sword wine, possession of 89.93% of the Blue Sword wine, thereby indirectly holding hops (600090, closing price of 10.19 Yuan) 29.9987% of the shares, become the first major shareholders of hops.　　May 7, "Fujian's richest man", Xinhua group Chairman Chen Fashu and the British Bo company Circle affiliated company A-bjade signed an agreement with 235 million U.S. dollars to let Tsingtao beer 7.01% of the H shares. Foreign investment in China's beer companies in a retreat, reflecting the current situation of the beer industry: huge potential, but the integration of the road is still long.　　The researchers believe that after the integration of the Chinese beer industry, the profitability of quality beer companies will be greatly improved, green beer, snowflakes and yanjing is most likely to become the future integration of the "left."　　Overall profitability data show that 2008 China's beer sales have been ranked first in the world for seven consecutive years, but the overall profit margin of China's beer industry is not high. At present, China's beer brand has more than 1500, but in addition to Qingdao, Yanjing, Zhujiang, Venus, Harbin, Huiquan and other brands, most brands are low-grade regional brands. According to the China Wine Industry Association statistics show that 45% of China's beer industry in the margin of loss or micro-deficit, about 32% of the Enterprise capital preservation, only less than 20% of the enterprise development Good, profit space is larger. Even the industry's best beer company, its profitability and high-end liquor companies have a significant gap.　　According to the annual report, 2008 Qingdao Beer Gross profit margin of 31.8%, yanjing beer for 37.46%, compared to Luzhou, Guizhou Maotai and other high-grade liquor as high as 60% of the gross margin, significantly inferior. "Domestic beer ton of wine profitability is only one-tenth of foreign countries, mainly because of the industrial upgrading is not enough, too fierce competition and marketing costs too high." The number of foreign beer companies is small, with a few brands, and China has hundreds of.　　Guo Hai Securities food and beverage industry researcher Liu Jinxian said. After several years of industry competition and integration, China's beer has been the formation of Huarun, ABI, green Beer, yanjing, heavy beer, Venus, Pearl Beer, Carlsberg and other domestic and foreign brands have advantages of regional, in the rest of the provinces checks and balances the pattern. "The future space is unimaginable, the ' left ' is king!" Pearl River, Kim Wei Beer has been lost, the second line factory life is not easy, a gleam of green beer, snowflakes, through the volumeand cost advantages of leading, the future of a large number of two or three-line beer company is bound to be a leading company to integrate.　　Liujin Shanghai is optimistic about the future of China's beer industry integration. In addition, the growth of domestic beer consumption will further improve the overall profitability of the industry. Founder Securities Food and beverage industry researcher Chen Guangyao pointed out that China's beer consumption increase mainly from middle-income and low-income groups, income elasticity is not significant.　　In developed countries, the consumption of beer and soft drinks is basically flat, according to the current state of speculation, China's per capita beer consumption has increased significantly, is expected in the next few years from the current 30 litres/people rise to 40~50.　　Researchers pay close attention to beer stocks recently, more and more researchers focused on beer stocks. "Now the beer market is very large, has been similar to liquor, the market is also recognized the prospects of good." Liu Jinxian told reporters.　　Liu Jinxian that there are many rumors about the adverse factors in the liquor industry, such as the decline in demand, the new consumption tax, the impact on high-end liquor is very large, and summer, the beer industry is about to enter the peak season, combined with the cost of barley fell by half, helping the beer company to enhance profitability, beer industry this year Chen Guangyao that the mass consumption of beer in the economic downturn has a certain degree of consumption rigidity, in the 1997 ~2002 year of the economic cycle has also maintained sales growth, the global financial crisis will not cause sharp fluctuations in beer consumption.　　The 2009 urbanization process and increase of residents ' income are facing the pressure of slowing down, but considering the low base of cool summer in 2008, the probability of the anomalous weather in 2009 is very small, even the hot summer, which will benefit the beer season sales. Chen Guangyao that 2009 beer market sales growth will maintain single-digit growth, the growth rate should be 6%~8%.　　He is optimistic about Tsingtao beer, yanjing beer, whirlpool beer (600573, closing price of 7.74 yuan) and hops. Liu Jinxian said that Tsingtao Brewery and China Resources Venture (00291,HK) are very investment-worthy companies and are expected to win in the future integration of the Chinese beer industry.　　At present, Qingdao beer 2009 years of performance forecast calculation, a-share valuation is still more than 30 times times, H-shares are valued at more than 20 times times.　　Liu Jinxian believes that beer stocks are real consumer stocks, coupled with the future integration of China's beer industry, quality Beer Company's profitability will be greatly improved, green beer, snowflakes and yanjing is most likely to become the future integration of the "remnant." Interview Tang June: the fastest three years of the beer industry to complete the integration of Xinhua group 235 million U.S. dollars to buy Tsingtao beer 7.01%h shares, shaking the Chinese beer industry.　　Recently, the acquisition of the "trader"-Xinhua group president and CEO Tang June accepted the "Daily Economic News" (hereinafter called NBD) interview.　　NBD: Why the choice of Tsingtao beer, is the fancy beer industry, or the company? Tang June: Although we value the company, but the industry is also very important。　　Beer is a good industry, beer is related to people's livelihood, has a core competitiveness of the industry, and we found that although overseas beer companies into China for 10 years, but the brand can exceed the local beer, such as Tsingtao Beer has not.　　NBD: How long does it take to integrate the beer industry? What is the trend of consolidation today? Tang June: 3 years to 5 years. The beer brand is very important, the beer industry's additional cost is the high cost of sales, if not to do marketing, beer is not sold.　　If it is a small business, the outside of the beer business once in, will lead to a serious squeeze on profits, as well as the merger of large beer companies.　　NBD: Now the industry is very concerned about the ownership of Tsingtao Beer, what will be the next move?　　Tang June: In the company marketing, we will not have the action, but in the business philosophy, we hope to intervene to help Qingdao beer to upgrade.　　NBD: Why not buy Tsingtao beer from the two-tier market? In the future, if the acquisition, will be from the two-tier market direct acquisition? Tang June: If the two-tier market to buy 7% of the shares, the cost will be very high, and the price will go up, and once someone is buying it, prices rise faster, so we prefer to do bulk trading.　　In the future, our acquisitions will not be purchased from the two tier market, only in the form of bulk trading.　　Reproduced in the media, excerpts of the works published in this newspaper, please indicate from the "daily economic news" and the author's name. Per subscribe telephone Beijing: 010-65072776 Shanghai: 021-61213899 shenzhen: 0755-33203568成: 028-86516389 028-86740011