The confusion of Internet Main Street: Entrepreneur's "prostitution age"

Ali investment Sina Weibo, Qihoo 360 chairman Zhou said "Wolf came" to become a reality.

For entrepreneurs, this is not the best of times, nor the worst of times, this is the "age of prostitution."

As early as 2000, Paul Krugman predicted at the end of the preface to the Rules of information: A word, farewell to the little boy in the garage, to usher in a new railroad tycoon, by the way, in court.

The rules of information is a book written by economics professor Carl Chapillo and Hall Varian, analyzing the economic laws of the information age (or the internet age). The book's view is that the information economy (or the Internet economy) is new, but the law of the information economy is old, the development of the industry is also old.

Professor Zeng, once a professor at the Cheung Kong Business School, strongly recommended the book to his students when he taught the EMBA program. Zeng's comment is: This book is more authentic than Kelly. Soon after, Zeng joined the Ali Group.

Contrary to Carl Chapillo and Hall Varian, Kelly in the new rules of the New Economy (310358, fund bar) that "the Internet industry is a new industry, the old experience does not adapt to the industry, there are new economic laws." Some of the features of this new industry are: opportunities are limitless and opportunities are always for entrepreneurs, not bosses.

Over the past 20 years, Kelly's views have apparently been touted by more practitioners, sparking the passion of countless entrepreneurs and becoming one of the driving forces behind the dotcom boom. 20 years on, things are changing, and old, outdated economic laws are taking effect.

Ali Group acquired Sina Weibo, which is the product of this background.

Qihoo 360 Chairman Zhou has been talking about a "big guy came" story: After the tab, China's internet industry no big guy. The fact is that, Shanda, Renren, Youku and other companies have been expected to be "internet new big guy", now look, the new big guy did not become the real old man.

As for Sina, NetEase, search tradition three big portals, then miss the opportunity that becomes big guy.

The development of the traditional company (or industry) follows the "s curve", that is, the various parts of the curve are divided into "early acceptance period, interruption period, bowling trough period, whirlwind period, Main Street period" five periods.

Early adopters can be called enthusiasts: the public is not interested, and product developers do not even know where consumers are, in a few enthusiasts, or professional circles of word-of-mouth spread. There is an intermittent period between early admission period and profitable customer, this period is called interruption period, many products, technology die in this stage, did not win the market, not for ordinary consumers know.

Web1.0, Web2.0, mobile internet three times entrepreneurial tide, many startups died in the interruption period.

Bowling trough period refers to the manufacturer began to target a specific user phase, to find an accurate positioning, and then chase. The whirlwind period is the time when the product market expands rapidly. If it is a company (or product), from the executive to the staff are very crazy, almost "walk with wind"; If the industry, there are a lot of star companies appear.

Main Street is the product is already full street, just like today's apple.

What part of the S curve is the internet today? Personally I think it's almost the main street period.

From the advent of the 1960 's Internet technology to the beginning of the early 1990 Internet technology began civil, is the Internet technology early acceptance and intermittent period, Web1.0 is bowling trough period, Web2.0, mobile Internet is a whirlwind period. In the mobile internet era, the internet will be ubiquitous, driven by cloud computing and large data.

What needs to be stated is that this distinct division of time boundaries is not rigorous, only for the narrative convenience.

Maybe we still think "smart phone" is a genius idea today, in fact, as early as 1996, the Internet just the beginning of civil, progressive Network,third Planer Publishing and vocal TV and other small companies to make a CT1 (meaning that computer + Telephone all-in-one).

As a matter of fact, most of the Internet applications and services we enjoy today already have products (or embryonic services) in the "Bowling trough", and then enter the whirlwind or main street period after the mature market elements such as technology, commerce and users.

On the product (or service) alone, the Internet has many products (or services in the early stage of acceptance), there is a lot of imagination.

On the Internet industry, innovative technology (mainly communication technology, computing), including microprocessor technology, network technology, storage technology, graphics and image processing technology, data mining technology, software technology, in the past 30 years is only the accumulation of quantitative change, has lost the space of revolution.

The problem that Intel faces, the "Moore's Law Failure", is the mapping of this phenomenon.

An industry is driven by technological innovation during the early stage of acceptance, interruption and bowling, while the whirlwind period requires the accumulation of brands, channels, users and market shares, while the main street period is dominated by capital mergers and acquisitions.

In this era, it is difficult for startups to tell big stories, and the best way is to find a product or service that is in the "early stage of acceptance, interruption," to develop and wait for the big guy to buy.

You want to be a big guy, unless you are a Zhou, Zhou is the general people learn not to do, also do not come.

In short, this is not the golden age of Internet entrepreneurs, is the age of prostitution.

Two days ago, I met a social app, raised a teenager for a year, spent more than 2 million, and was a mess. "I have a classmate who opens a restaurant and has made a fortune," he concludes with emotion.

For example, in the smartphone sector, Apple, the technology-led company, has lost momentum and imagination after a technology-led period of acceptance, interruption, and bowling. By now (the Main Street stage), Ios:android has changed 1:8.

The big guy's here! Here's what Paul Krugman said: "Farewell to the cottage when the kid, welcome the old Internet tycoon and, go to the mother of the law." Because, the law in this new industry still can't keep up with the situation.