The dilemma between staying and retreating: "Sell May" spells again?

May 11, just enjoy the May beginning of the joy of China's stock market, a sudden adjustment baptism. On that day, the A-share market major index in a deep slump, the Shanghai 300 down 2.29%, Shen down 3.09%, the SME index fell 3.64%, the former red stock market suddenly plunged into the 凄惶 of flourishing leaves, while China Petroleum, Sinopec, China Unicom, China Aluminum and other large blue chips, such as the failure of the red chip　　But also aroused the panic of the market. A Beijing fund manager told reporters, "Today's high volume decline shows that the market panic is still very strong, the trend of the past two days on the impact of the stock market is crucial."　　"Sell in May" (sold in May) is known as the stock market survival wisdom, the 11th stock market plunge once again awakened the traditional memory of this investment maxim.　　Does the May selling strategy really have the magical effect of the past?　　Confused May days CIC Securities strategy researcher Liu Haobo, Cao She "optimistic and cautious anticipation will alternate dominate May" as the title of its May investment strategy Monthly Report, the Chinese stock market in May sharp turmoil should be the subject of its open warning. In the aforementioned monthly investment strategy report of May, Liu Haobo and Cao She to the point: judging from the two shocks of the stock index in late April, our view on "a significant reduction in the positive expectations of the previous two quarter" was validated. Based on our analytical framework for the two quarterly strategy report, we believe that the May market will enter a phase of optimistic anticipation and a cautious expectation of alternate dominance.　　And the running trend of the stock index will be from the concussion upward, the bottom gradually rise to a wide shock.　　The optimistic forecasts that the market still expects in May include a continued upturn in macroeconomic data, ample liquidity and a still-optimistic policy outlook; Possible prudential expectations include a possible spread of swine flu and its impact on the global economy, and a decline in earnings.　　Although the May benefit factor and the bad factor coexist, but the two-bit strategy researcher of the investment securities put their chips on the side of the balance.　　They argue that the positive effects of the March credit-forecast data on the market have gradually weakened, and that the April figures, even once again exceeding expectations, will be more of a prop to the stock index than a continuation of the higher-than-expected push.　　Of particular concern is the weakening of the policy orientations at the government level to do more. In addition, the uncertainty of economic fundamentals-the decline in earnings is expected to affect the continued rise of the stock market is an important factor. 2008 year 1602 companies to achieve a total of attributable to the parent company net profit of 816.18 billion yuan, compared to 2007 year of 985 billion yuan (adjusted) down 17.1%. In the first quarter of 2009 a total of 1602 companies to achieve the ownership of the parent company net profit of 202.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 26.3%. Although net profit this year 1 quarter quarter-on-quarter 2008The 4 quarter grew by more than 500% per cent, but it did not actually take into account the seasonal factors in earnings growth, starting in late May, when investors ' interest in profitability gradually increased: industrial profits will be announced at the end of May, and the comparison of data and market expectations will have a certain impact on the market. Judging from the current situation, corporate profitability is not optimistic.　　If the market entered the profit testing stage, the stock index will appear a large amplitude of the shock trend. The "May sell" curse. The research institute has counted the performance of the Hang Seng index in each month over the past 40 years and its probability of rising in that month. Hong Kong stocks have a higher chance of rising in the past 10 to 40 years each year in April, July, October to December. It was the highest rate of decline in May, at 70%, the highest probability in other months, and based on such statistical results, it was suggested that the sell in May strategy, which was sold in October for May, was actually quite effective in the last 40 years of the Hong Kong market,　　If you use this simple investment strategy, you can avoid a number of times in the history of more than 20% of the decline.　　Joint Securities Investment strategy researcher Dai, Zhu Junchun on a-share market over the past 18 years, the Shanghai Composite Index monthly ups and downs of statistical analysis shows that a-share market seems to have a stronger "Sell in might" characteristics.　　In the A-share market to sell at the end of May, bought at the end of October, "Sell in the May" strategy is very effective, whether from the past 6 years, 12, 18 statistics, the yield has exceeded the same market average yield more than one times. According to its empirical calculations, the assumption that investors at the end of 1990 to hold 100 yuan into the stock market, to take the end of May to sell, to buy at the end of October strategy, and the assumption that investors can find the perfect replication index of financial products, then by the end of March 2009, investors hold the value of the　　The yield was 3236.5%, while the Shanghai Composite Index's yield level was 1759.74% per cent. "While the investment strategy sold in May is not 100% effective, the sale in May will allow you to avoid many major market risks, such as the 5?30 in 2007 and the collapse of the market in 2008 from May," Dai said, when the reporter consulted on the current suitability for a May selling strategy. "Coincidentally, on Wall Street on the other side of the ocean, the recent controversy over whether to" sell in the May and go away "is also very popular.　　Some have argued that selling in May was not the bottom stage of a bear market, while others believed that selling in May was still valid under the risk of uncertainty in American politics. Unlike CIC, which has a different view of the domestic macro-economy, Dr. Gao Shanwen, chief economist at Shun Securities. He believes that despite the continued slide in China's economic growth in the 1 quarter of 2009, monthly data suggest that the economy may have bottomed out;It may be mainly with the enterprise sector large-scale inventory process of the basic end of the positive impact of fiscal stimulus gradually emerged, large-scale monetary stimulus in the case of increased risk appetite, as well as car, housing and other commodity sales of the overall warming and other factors related. Gao thinks it looks like the Chinese economy has gone through the "V" shape of the bottom and is moving into the "V" shape on the right side of the recovery process.　　On this basis, he expects China's growth rate to rise quarterly in the next few quarters, with China's GDP growth of about 6.9% per cent in the 2 quarter and a 4-quarter rise to more than 9%. In terms of inflation, major price indicators in the 1 quarter continued to fall sharply in the 3 quarter since last year, as demand continued to weaken.　　But given the changes in global and Chinese demand and global commodity movements, it is expected that the low point of this round of inflation would occur in the 2 quarter of this year, with CPI falling by about 8% per cent 1.3%,ppi. Although the current season has entered the early summer, but for the Chinese stock market is still a carries, is left behind or retreat? Will the cycle law of May ever again have a magical effect?