The downside risk of China's economy decreases

P (gross domestic product) growth is a fairly good performance, but there seems to be no obvious reversal of the growing downward and rising price problems that have been worrying.　　Laiyun focused on these hotspots at the press conference. Further consolidation of the economy, the employment situation is better than expected in the first three quarters of this year, GDP growth of 11.9%, 10.3% and 9.6% respectively, the growth rate of quarterly decline how to treat?　　Especially how to evaluate the performance of the three quarter? Although GDP growth continued to decline in the three quarter, but laiyun that the decline has a stable situation, the current national economic performance of the overall judge still remain "in the direction of macro-control, the economic momentum to further consolidate." "Mainly reflected in: agricultural production situation is better, the initial harvest of food is expected to be harvested again, industrial production to maintain a relatively rapid growth, consumption, investment, import and export demand also maintain a relatively fast growth; the employment situation is better than expected; the income of the residents is steady and the prices are basically stable. In addition, the quality of economic growth is also relatively high, revenue, corporate profits are maintained faster growth.　　In 8 September, the manufacturing purchasing managers ' index rebounded for two consecutive months, giving people an upbeat message. The main reason for the growth rate drop is a higher base last year, but the three-quarter GDP growth rate of decline in the stability situation Laiyun the third quarter of the situation did a specific analysis. First, the decline in GDP growth was due to a higher base last year. Last year, China's GDP growth rate of 6.5%, two quarter is 8.1%, three quarter is 9.6%, the base of the elevation to a certain extent pulled down the year year-on-year growth. The three-quarter growth rate, though still falling, is narrowing.　　GDP growth in the second quarter fell 1.6% from the first quarter, while the three-quarter growth rate fell by only 0.7% in the second quarter. Second, the decline in economic growth is the government's initiative to take macro-control measures of the results. This year, in order to promote structural adjustment, local governments have increased energy conservation and emission reduction, some high energy-consuming industries, the increase in industrial value of the fall faster.　　For example, in the three quarter, the growth rate of industrial growth in the six high-energy industries was 10.5%, down from 15.1% in the second quarter. Laiyun that from the performance of the real economy, from the performance of the three major needs, the three quarter of the economic stability of the situation. The growth rate of the above-scale industries remained largely between 13% and 14% in the four months of June-September, and the growth rate had been converging for nearly three-year average growth. Investment, consumption, import and export, etc. also appear high stability of the trend. In the first three quarters, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society was 24%, only 1% lower than in the first half. The total retail sales growth rate of consumer goods has a smaller fluctuation, basically fluctuates around 18%, and the fluctuation in the first three quarters is not more than 1%.　　The year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports, although falling back faster, but this is mainly affected by the rising base last year. The September CPI climbed to new highs in 23 months, with food and housing prices rising most affected　　Following the August consumer price index (CPI) 22-month high, September CPI climbed to a new 23-month high, reaching 3.6%, the chain Rose 0.6%.　　This means that even after the 20th hike, the CPI is still higher than the 2.5% one-year deposit rate and the 3.25% per cent two-year deposit rate. From the factors affecting the prices of September and the new price factors, compared with the previous month, the former impact slightly decreased, and the latter impact slightly expanded. Since last year's CPI was low after the high, the impact of the September CPI inflation is 1.3%, accounting for the month's CPI year-on-year Rise of 36%.　　The new price factor accounted for 64% of the CPI gains in September. Laiyun explained that the impact of the new price factor mainly stems from the rise in food prices and residential prices, which contributed 90% to the CPI rise.　　Due to the adverse effects of natural conditions, the price of some agricultural products continued to rise in September, fresh food prices rose 18% year-on-year, poultry and its products prices rose 5.4% year-on-year, food prices rose 12.1%. According to the price trend of the last 3 months of this year, Shenglai's analysis is that both the factors that affect the price uplink, but also the pressure to affect the price downward. The upstream factor mainly comes from two aspects: first, the international commodity price, the recent depreciation of the dollar has stimulated the international commodity price to rise sharply, will produce certain import inflation pressure to the domestic; second, the labor cost rises to a certain extent, as well as the raw material price rise,　　If enterprises cannot use technological innovation to absorb this part of the cost pressure, then a part of the cost may be to the subsequent industry conduction. Despite the upward pressure on prices, there are several factors that are expected to complete the annual macro-control target to influence price downward. First, this year, initially expected to increase production of autumn grain, grain production to some extent to maintain the stability of food prices laid a solid foundation. Second, the vast majority of industrial products oversupply fundamentals have not changed.　　Third, the influence of the tail factor will continue to decline in the following months. Although prices are slightly higher than previously expected, Laiyun said that since the beginning of the year, international commodity prices have been high volatility, domestic natural disasters frequent, heavy, on agricultural products, food production, circulation has had a great impact. In this year's complex and severe environment at home and abroad, can achieve more than 10% of the growth of the national economy, prices to maintain the level of about 3% is very remarkable. Since this year, the other 3 countries with strong economic vitality, the economic growth rate is lower than China's, but the price level is higher than China. For example, Brazil's September CPI rose 4.7%, Russia's September CPI rose 7%, and India's August CPI rose 9.9%.　　This suggests that the measures taken by the country this year to manage inflation expectations are strong, effective and appropriate. "Preliminary judgment, despite price upward pressure, if the late inflation expectations of management, the completion of the annual macro-control expected goal is stillHope. "Laiyun said.