The economic turning point hits the caller will face the big turbulence

See a lot of bad news, in fact, and the electrical business has nothing to do, just today a friend said I have been an expert in electrical business, everywhere still talk about me, let my sense of responsibility arises, in this year January Lunar New year ago, I wrote two articles, one is "2012 Electric business Change and opportunity" 2012, a lot of things will have a end, read back, a lot of things are indeed expected to be good, and the extent of the crisis is probably beyond the optimistic imagination.

Now there are a few data, let me first say, the first set of economic inflection point of data "1, the previous April state-owned enterprises profit Year-on-year decline 8.6%,http://www.aliyun.com/zixun/aggregation/32902.html" > Operating income growth of 12.4% 2, April Import and Export 2.7%, of which exports only 4.9%; 3, electricity consumption increased by 3.7%, showing industrial power is not strong; 4, social consumer goods year-on-year growth of 14.1%, down about 4%; 5, April revenue year-on-year growth of 6.9%, in recent years the first fall in two digits; 6, Consumer brands and retail-related listed companies reported poor earnings ", the second group, the central bank announced a reduction in reserve ratio, debt prices jumped, foreign exchange accounted for a sharp decline in April 2012 is negative 60.5 billion yuan. In the past three years, the average monthly increment of foreign exchange accounted for 223.3 billion yuan. April foreign exchange accounted for the first negative growth this year, 2011 years of the Four seasons, China's foreign exchange accounted for three consecutive months of decline. The third group, the BRIC stock market plunged, and the United States, China is the least, because last year has experienced a sharp decline. The fourth group, iron ore and electric coal has begun to fall, commodities, such as crude oil, copper, etc. have even fallen three weeks, gold and silver have plunged, the current short-term stabilisation. The fifth group, cotton prices fell from the high point, according to its relationship with inflation, this round of inflation should be over, followed by the fear of deflation.

The above economic data, basically is seen in recent days, many people may not understand what is the matter, although I am not an economist, but probably still know what things. Presumably, this round of growth is probably over, and it will be a crisis. The decrease in foreign-exchange accounts bodes well for the expected decline in the renminbi's appreciation, while a sharp drop in commodities and rising debt are a harbinger of the dollar's rise.

Recently, the electricity business is not very peaceful, a large number of operators of the vertical business of the negative news, or even a sharp drop in traffic. Many Taobao sellers reflect a sharp decline in turnover, but their store rankings have been upgraded, the whole thing is very strange. Some people put forward the "long skirt theory", saying that if most women start wearing long skirts, meaning that there is no extra money to buy stockings to match, and actually everywhere has begun to fashion long skirts. This is similar to eggs, are price-sensitive products, once the price rises, egg sales will be the first significant decline, because people will first reduce the consumption of non-essential goods. The same conclusion from countless angles is that the inflection point is coming.

Inflation, soaring prices, does not affect growth, price soaring 10%, in the original transaction volume unchanged, in fact, or increase the turnover of 10%, the rapid growth of the electric business is closely related to the rapid growth of the economy, and the soaring prices, but also greatly increased the choice of cheaper electric power products. And once the economy turns into austerity, even if prices fall, purchasing power will fall even more, because there is a shortage of money, which is just the opposite of inflation. And once you can't grow, you know what it means to grow a living electric dealer. But the more serious problem now is that it will affect Taobao's operations for the first time, and the days of the business will be even sadder.

Before the expected situation has appeared, promotion costs, flow costs of the high, so that the electrical products, especially Taobao products, the price advantage gradually reduced, and the tax and cottage these two swords, still hanging in the seller's head, at any time may be chopped down. Taobao's own corruption has increased the cost, and its sweeping reforms, change the structure, change the rules, in fact, realized the bath water and the child together to fall off the effect, perhaps Taobao think they are very large, loss of some sellers nothing, there are more willing to throw money sellers can suck blood, but as the economic situation changes, this situation, There will be a dramatic transition. And for all the different kinds of business-to-consumer that have been on the up and down, the time has finally come.

The phenomenon is probably the case, no more talking, and then talk about possible ways.

Despite the long-term devaluation of the currency, the current economic situation, cash is king or an iron rule. Because the economic situation inflection point brought about by the decline in consumption, so that promotional costs will continue to increase, the effect will continue to decline, this is not a technical problem, but a big environmental problem. It is wrong to make all the expansion and investment now, and from the information available, I have predicted a large round of inventory in the year before, is actually moving forward, and some sites have a feeling of dumping, product prices are much lower than last year (clothing category), and now this practice is the most sensible, a large number of inventory back to cash , reduce operating costs, is the most sensible choice, and now the force of investment, will eventually outweigh the gains.

The decline of foreign exchange accounts will bring about a substantial depreciation of assets, the so-called housing prices, will be in this round, ushered in a real decline, you can pay close attention to the price of gold and exchange rate, this is a vane. After the sharp decline in assets, we will have a golden investment opportunity, and the reality is that the opportunity is to be held in the cash, rather than the holding of assets.

However, the first quarter of the BoE has achieved high growth, in this case, the extrusion effect will be very obvious, customers will focus on the leading electric dealers to ensure that the value of their own consumption, because of hobbies, fun and other shopping will be less and more, and higher quality requirements, for the leader this is a good news, Other small business The inexplicable flow of the cliff fell in fact is not inexplicable, but this circle of people, rarely can be raised to the level of the overall economic environment.

A new round of shuffling has begun, who survives, is the next 10 years of industry leader.