The electric business entered the "Great Leap Forward" era?

In the first week of the Spring Festival in 2013, Jingdong announced the completion of a "D-round financing of about 700 million dollars". Suning followed, issued a notice said Suning appliance changed its name to "Suningyun Group Co., Ltd.", and announced the "store business, retail service provider" of the so-called "cloud quotient" mode. In addition to the Spring Festival before the structure of Ali Ma has made a big change, we found: The beginning of the new Year, in the first round of market competition has yet to reveal the clue, the three countries have been eager to start determined, deploy.

The so-called "no move, grain and fodder first", whether Ali is aimed at creating a better enterprise structure of the changes, or Beijing-east to reserve more capital for a new round of financing, or Su Ning's vision to adjust to a more global scope, is undoubtedly for the upcoming more brutal competition to prepare.

The big three, along the way, seem to have left the traditional business and business models far behind. What can we see from the development data of their "pouring"?

10.2 billion, 30.9 billion, 100 billion, this is the media coverage of the Beijing-East for 3 years of growth data, so the perennial rely on venture capital transfusion of Jingdong can once again get the D-round financing. Perhaps in the future there will be e-round, F-round, for Beijing east such an "impossible to profit" business, this seemingly endless financing, or until the Beijing east to win the national goal, or until the east of Beijing to die.

Taobao more powerful! 400 billion, 650 billion, 1 trillion ..., it's "wealthy". But Taobao data must be added to a considerable proportion of the weight of shrinkage, because Taobao business model and Jingdong, Suning has a big difference. Although all are platforms, but Jingdong and Suning is the self platform, Taobao is just "rental shop" like a generalization platform.

Before the festival, Suning appliance in the January 16 announcement, said, "2012 E-commerce to achieve the main merchandise sales revenue of 15.216 billion yuan, not up to the previous set of 20 billion yuan sales target." Compared to the previous media coverage of Suning 2012 electric business target "30 billion", 20 billion seems to be considered "cautious". Because "from 2011 only for 5.2 billion yuan, the company still made good progress in E-commerce."

See the electricity quotient "Three Kingdoms" such data, do not know is should applaud for them, or worry.

Remember the history of China's great Leap forward? In 1957, steel production in the United States was 70 million tonnes. In the same year, China's steel production was 5.35 million tonnes, reaching a doubling of 11 million tonnes in 1958. "According to" this astonishing pace of development, China immediately set the next year (1959) of the steel production target to 30 million tons, and further plans to reach 60 million tonnes in 1960, 1962 to 80 million or even 120 million tons. This is a familiar story of the Great Leap Forward of "the English Premier League", with steel output doubling almost every year. The story to later is how, I think needless to say, even if it is 1957 to 1958 double, in fact, is also the result of the national mobilization, and thus the 10 billion working days of agricultural time, equivalent to 1/3 of the National Agricultural labor force, leading to a major decline in agricultural production. Even after realizing that these goals are "unrealistic and impossible", the 1959 target is still only about 20 million tonnes.

Like the Great Leap Forward in steel production and agricultural competition for the labor force, the electric business and the traditional commercial competition is always the same group of consumers, and the electric business in their own high-speed development behind the competition is with the future of limited consumption capacity. Regardless of the Beijing-east launched by the electric dealers "three kill", or make suning easy to buy fame "super 0 Yuan purchase", in my opinion is the market's serious overdraft, or say Zeize.

From my personal likes and dislikes on speaking, I do not like Jingdong, is a loyal customer of Suning. In the second half of last year, several "super 0 Yuan shopping" activities, from the air-conditioning, refrigerators and other large household appliances to the heater, electric kettle This type of small household electrical appliances, there are pressure cooker, induction cooker, soy milk machine these kitchen supplies, as well as oil, GPS, traffic recorder such as automotive supplies ... Useful things, useless things, have bought a lot, can even say mountains. Oil, estimated that the two cars in the home can be used to the year after, the book, can see 5 years later, as for the single shampoo, mouse, USB flash drive, is more to do not know what year and month. Therefore, it is very limited to look at the future development simply from the historical earnings and statistical data. Although from the economic "three carriage" comparison data, it seems that the consumption of fire has just been ignited by the electric dealer, but put into the local subdivision area, may soon be saturated. For example, everyone electrical appliances, saturation and how to do? If consumption habits do not change, new markets cannot be created. Take air-conditioning as an example, I bought a batch, the use of good, you can not tell me all throw away and buy again.

Electric Dealer "Three Kingdoms Kill" The result, has formed the consumer a custom: who discounts is formidable, I will buy who. Led to the current electricity business competition, excessive reliance on the price of power, to Jingdong and Suning, the fight is the capital strength behind. Jingdong dependence on the blood transfusion of venture capital, there is always a day of burning Ashes, Suning as a A-share listed companies, there are hundreds of millions of shareholders "backing", seems to be more rich, but always more than a long-term issue. Ma Yun, although set off 1111 and 1212 such a festival campaign, but if there is no business substantial price concessions, the performance I am afraid to be greatly discounted.

Therefore, the price war is not the sustainable development of the road, such as Beijing and east to rely on blood transfusion for survival and development is thirst, only to open up and create new areas of consumption is. As the founder of China's electricity business, MA Yun wins innovation. The biggest difficulty is the lack of credit system, he used Alipay to solve the problem perfectly.

I know a lot of electric businessmen are optimistic that the electricity dealers must replace the tradition, become the choice of consumers. In fact, if someone wants to ask, consumers prefer to buy things from the electric business channels, or choose the traditional channels. I think the answer will surprise both sides. Because from the human nature's point of view, people are naturally like to choose, the more likely to choose the more comfortable feeling. So when the traditional business as a habit exists in people's lives, the advent of electricity to people to open a new window, see more and more splendid world, so people are willing to accept. But if the caller is more aggressive than the traditional business, the consumer will read the benefits of traditional business and no one wants to be kidnapped by a choice.