The end of Moore's law is an opportunity for cloud computing

[Guide] The end of Moore's law marks the arrival of a new era, the era of cloud computing. With the development of Moore's Law, the improvement of terminal performance will be limited by the improvement of chip performance. The development of terminal performance will lag far behind the user's business experience.

"The number of transistors that can be accommodated on an IC will double by about every 18 months, and the performance will increase by one and cost unchanged," said Gordon Moore, Intel co-founder of the 1965 gifted electronic technology expert. This is the famous Moore's law. It led the electronic information industry since the development of more than half a century, creating the myth of IT industry, but also to the success of the peak of Intel! But unfortunately, after nearly more than 50 years of rapid development, Moore's law is coming to an end! At the 2009 International Conference on Physical design, Karl Anderson, an IBM Fellow, pointed out that Moore's law would soon be history. He argues that the semiconductor industry, like the previous train, car and aviation industries, is already quite mature and that the pace of continuous innovation is slowly slowing. As the size and cost of semiconductor devices decline exponentially, Moore's law will enter the musty of history. Anderson said the most cutting-edge chips, such as multi-core microprocessors, could also grow exponentially. However, more designers have found that day-to-day applications do not require the latest physical design. So Moore's law will soon be ineffective. Today, only high-end chip makers can afford the high cost of developing and designing next-generation chips, let alone manufacturing them.

Although Justin Juttler, Intel's chief technology officer and Director of Enterprise technology, is adamant that Moore's law will not fail, Intel will be able to double the chips on the next generation of processors over the next decade years. But I think that the reduction of electronic devices will eventually have a limit, and the closer to this limit, the higher the cost of investment, as Carl Anderson said, the semiconductor industry has also been quite mature, the pace of continuous innovation is slowly slowing down, Moore's law ultimately is doomed to escape the doom.

The end of Moore's law marks the advent of a new era, the era of cloud computing. With the development of Moore's Law, the improvement of terminal performance will be limited by the improvement of chip performance. The development speed of terminal performance will lag far behind the user's requirement for business experience. This contradiction will bring unprecedented development opportunity for cloud computing, because cloud computing can solve this problem very well. Cloud computing is a core idea is to improve the "cloud" processing capacity to reduce the user terminal processing burden, and ultimately to simplify the user terminal to a simple input, and can enjoy the "cloud" of the powerful computing power. As Google and its cloud wisdom puts it: "This new ambitious strategy is aimed at distributing powerful, imaginative computing power into the hands of everyone." "The idea of a cloud-free terminal will change the way the whole industry thinks, because this idea is completely free of Moore's Law!"

Then, cloud computing is how to improve the "cloud" performance, to ensure that the terminal processing capacity? And how can the powerful computing power be distributed in the hands of the people?

This is about the definition of cloud computing. In the author's opinion, Cloud computing (Cloud Computing) is grid computing (grids Computing), distributed Computing (distributed Computing), parallel Computing (Parallel Computing), Utility computing (Utility Computing) networked storage (receptacle Storage Technologies), Virtualization (virtualization), load-balancing (load Balance) and other traditional computer technology and network technologies. It aims to integrate a number of relatively low cost computing entities into a perfect system with powerful computing power through the network, and to distribute this powerful computing power to end users with the help of advanced business models such as SaaS, PaaS, IaaS, MSP, and so on.

In this definition, we can clearly see that the "cloud" performance is not by reducing the volume of electronic devices to achieve, but by expanding the "cloud" scale to achieve. The more computing entities are integrated into the cloud computing system, the more powerful the system will be. Instead of relying solely on the power of a single entity, it improves overall performance by clustering. This is a completely different way of thinking than Moore's law. In addition, the way users get computing power is simple and more flexible. With advanced business models such as SaaS, PaaS, IaaS, MSP, and so on, users can enjoy the cloud computing function on demand and pay for the features they use. This approach promises to make ICT services a basic consumer of electricity in people's lives.

According to the latest report published by IDC in November 2009, the growth trend of cloud computing services will be very strong in 5 years, with an average annual increase of 26%, which is 6 times times the growth rate of traditional IT industry. By 2013, Cloud computing services will reach 10% of overall IT spending, with annual earnings of as much as $44.2 billion trillion. The next four years, China's cloud computing will generate 1.1 trillion yuan market.

In the next few years, cloud computing is a way of thinking that permeates every aspect of people's lives. It will change people's demand for the end of the concept, and even the entire industrial structure will be adjusted. At the end of Moore's law, cloud computing gives us a glimpse of the light ahead. Also look forward to cloud computing in the future can give us more surprises!

Original source from "Bit net", reprint please keep the original link: http://datacenter.chinabyte.com/91/11815091.shtml

(Responsible editor: Lu Guang)