The consolidation industry is stabilizing but not warming

CICC issued a report that, from April data, the consolidation market, although stable, but in the short term it is difficult to get out of the trough.　　Analysts believe that, in terms of demand, as China's exports have only stopped a sharp decline, and the trend has taken time to improve, the consolidation industry, closely linked to China's exports and demand in Europe and the US, will not see any signs of improvement in the short term. From the supply side, although the ship owners idle about 11% of the capacity, and the recent increase in the number of ship dismantling, the delivery of new shipbuilding orders also have the possibility of a delay, which will help to some extent to alleviate the boat cargo less status. But scrapping, capacity-containment and scrapping new ship deliveries are not enough to reverse the oversupply of the industry. First, as there are many consortia and state-backed owners, it is unlikely to be as large as the dry bulk ship east, according to analysts calculated that even if 50% of the new shipbuilding orders are not delivered on time, 2009-2010 expansion will be as high as 7%, and second, even if a lot of losses,　　At present, the proportion of ship scrapping is only 1.9%, and the annual proportion of ship dismantling is only 15%, capacity expansion speed can be close to 0, as the age is newer, the proportion of ship-breaking can not rise to such a high level; third, if there are signs of rebound in tariffs, idle capacity will be released, which will still put pressure on the resumption of tariffs. Because of the high growth in capacity expansion, global consolidation trade even a slight recovery is difficult to digest more than 10% of the current supply growth, so analysts believe that 09 may not be the bottom of the industry, the 2010 oversupply of the phenomenon still exists, freight rates still difficult to continue to rise. Demand for consolidation in 09 is expected to slow from 4.5% in 08 to 2.9%, while capacity-supply growth remains at a 13.5% per cent high. Supply growth is 16% higher than demand, and the gap is larger than in 08. Demand is expected to recover slightly in 2010, but the oversupply is still evident. (Cong)