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Industry General Writing/Zhanghuiyu "financial weekly"
Professional Support/Rong (600100, share) chairman, Ken (Gobi investment partner), Yi (China Mobile Internet Industry Alliance Secretary-General), Lin Yu (Chairman and co-CEO of NetQin)
With the change of modern living habits and consumption entertainment, the information technology industry is also changing drastically. The industry is changing, opportunity and risk are the same.
Most people in the industry believe that mobile internet, cloud computing and IoT are the current trends in information technology development, the relevant segments of the company will have opportunities, and some companies are facing industry development.
Internal positive, external grim
In the view of Lin Yu, chairman of NetQin, from the inside of China, both industry and country, the importance of information technology has formed a consensus. At the national level, the new generation of information technology is explicitly included in the national seven strategic emerging industry planning, is the future of China's key development of supporting industries, industry level, more and more traditional IT companies have been or are about to transition to the upstream of the industrial chain. These factors will certainly promote the development of China's information technology.
Yi, secretary general of China Mobile Internet Industry Alliance, believes that urbanization will lead to investment in domestic demand, and informatization has become an important support for the urbanization of new towns. "After the infrastructure has been done, it is found that apps are valuable, and no infrastructure is a cloud," he stressed. "Gobi investment partner Ken and Yi's views coincide, and when the infrastructure is paved, the accuracy of the analysis data will increase."
There are slightly different views on policy promotion.
In Lin Yu's view, the development policy of the information technology industry in the 2013 will further strengthen the regulatory function. "Recently, there has been news that the Ministry of Industry may implement app filing system, which means that with the rapid development of mobile phone applications, the app industry, which previously drifted outside the supervision of the Ministry, has attracted the attention of government authorities." This may be a signal, through standardized operation to promote the orderly development of the entire industry. ”
Ken said that government policy support will help a lot in the long run, but in terms of business behaviour, the effect will not be significant in the short term.
Rong, chairman of the same party shares, said that the national authorities have launched a number of Twelve-Five planning documents, subdivided into various sectors of the information industry. However, the information industry is a fully competitive industry, the characteristics of its competition depends on innovation and talent, simple policy support does not work.
"Industry policy is more in the application of efforts, that is, through the government to expand the application of new technologies in the industry, such as the national promotion of Identity card IC card is an obvious example, the mandatory card replacement card also led to the development of integrated circuit IC industry, which is the government-driven, Also such as the recently opened things networking conference and so on. "he said.
Overall, the 2013 China's internal information technology development industry is facing great opportunities, the external environment is still a grim situation.
In Lin Yu's view, the source of global information technology innovation will remain the United States for a short time. Decades of development, so that the United States to the basic information technology control is very high, this is China's information technology can not cross the threshold. From this point of view, the future development of our information technology, we have to catch up with the "backward starting line", and may encounter the "patent trap" at any time.
Mobile Internet, cloud computing is a big trend
Internet of things, relative lag of large data
The development of the whole information technology industry, mobile Internet, cloud computing, IoT and large data is recognized as the development trend of industry.
Rong said that the current global IT industry is in a period of drastic change, showing the characteristics of consumption, mobility, cloud computing and service.
"Simply put, it products are more likely to consume from pricing and application, terminals tend to move more, get rid of fixed PCs and Wired, cloud computing provides more IT resources, virtual storage space, and service is to achieve on-demand services, pay on demand." This trend of development, so that the development of the industry to see more and more clear. ”
"It is now in the mobile internet era, and some research institutes believe that mobile Internet is the fifth technology development cycle following mainframes, small machines, PCs, and traditional internet." Mobile Internet development is faster than the traditional internet, its larger scale and is gradually infiltrating into people's lives, meaning that the mobile internet industry will reshape the global IT industry competition pattern. Mobile Internet has three elements, namely mobile network, mobile terminal and application service, in which mobile internet also involves big data, cloud computing, terminal includes mobile phone and tablet computer this piece, and application service is more extensive, can be said to be all aspects. In other words, this trend has revealed new and greater opportunities for information industry, including hardware, software, content, and services. ”
The concept of mobile Internet emerged from the United States, 2009 gradually came to China, 2011 reached the peak, Yi that 2012 gradually trend of rational return.
"This part of the controversy is very large, some people think nothing, is not the original Internet terminal board?" Finally found that the mobile Internet media is not Sina, social networks are not used by us Tencent, but the search engine some differences, has changed. From the desktop to the phone, there is a big change, one is the chip, the other is the operating system, because the operating system can be bundled with the operation of the engine. Yi told reporters.
Yi that the mobile internet inherits part of the desktop Internet, but there are some innovations. "The essential difference between mobile Internet and desktop Internet is that the desktop Internet is more computing, searching, entertaining and consuming." and the mobile Internet or the intelligent mobile terminals in each of us can produce data, in a sense, it is the provider of the entire content, which is very significant. ”
"But mobile internet is a yaoyinzi, itself can not cure, it must be combined with some herbs to become a variety of medicine, I now see is the technology of the Internet of things, cloud computing and large data processing technology, combined, can play a huge role." ”
The other three interviewees expressed the same view that the relevance and integration of information technology will become more and more high.
"The Internet of Things is not going to be a separate industry, cloud computing and mobile networks will be able to accelerate the rise of IoT, and the development of IoT may lag behind." "Ken said.
Infrastructure, mobile terminals
Information security as a new growth point
Mobile Internet, cloud computing, IoT of things and big data as one of the major development directions of the industry, some relevant subdivision industries will benefit.
In Ken's view, infrastructure and mobile terminals will be the main growth point of the 2013, especially hardware devices.
On the infrastructure, subdivided into industry-related companies, Ken that different types of chip companies will have many opportunities, including to do the core of the calculation chip, or some of the vertical type of application chips.
"In addition to cloud computing, a lot of virtualization software and hardware are combined, the trend of software + hardware may be a relatively large domestic opportunities." Now, many foreign manufacturers are also doing. But we think the Chinese market is more special, perhaps many organizations or customers will not choose foreign equipment. Domestic companies will have a better chance of development. ”
Another industry and the company's growth point, Ken that on the mobile terminal.
"From the mobile terminal development changes, the volume has been very large, at the same time the price of the terminal is also falling, may bring a more obvious trend of terminal replacement." In addition, the original non-intelligent machine, the more traditional characteristics of the model may slowly be replaced, mobile terminals may also be a relatively large opportunity. ”
From the subdivision industry, Ken that the main view of mobile applications, a larger opportunity is the application of basic tools in the next year will have a big development, such as mobile phone photos, information inquiries. In addition to the application of biased tools, comparative basic class applications, the second category is game class, pure entertainment applications.
Infrastructure and mobile applications as the growth point of the industry, but still face some challenges.
"Demand must exist, mainly in the business model." Advertising mode can make money, but it is only the channel, the core value is not obvious. In addition to the advertising model, how to create a better profit model is very important, especially for a certain size of the company is a relatively large challenge. Second, the product homogenization and sales back to the issue. "Ken said.
"In addition, foreign manufacturers, although the high price of products, service is not very perfect." But when the domestic market is big enough, they will also make adjustments, foreign companies in the technical and empirical still have a lot of advantages, at this time the domestic companies should adjust, is a problem. ”
Lin Yu that, along with the mobile Internet development, the information security problem will become increasingly prominent.
He said that in the mobile security industry, the overall growth of the market in 2013 is still huge. Saino in the third quarter of 2012, Mobile Security Report, 2012 Q3, China's mobile phone security market number of registered users reached 167 million, this number accounted for a billion of of China's mobile phone users 20% less than.
In the industry growth point, he is optimistic about image search, mobile payment, desktop and enterprise mobile security management.
Electronic business, traditional software to meet the challenge
The new pattern accelerates the shape
Under the competition pattern of industry, some industry companies may encounter risks when some subdivision industries usher in development opportunities.
Yi said, "the company that did not keep up with will certainly have a problem." Baidu did not keep up with the mobile Internet, its revenue mainly rely on desktop Internet auction rankings, so many years, not much change. When more and more people are accustomed to searching on mobile phones, conundrum. And Tencent turned very fast. In addition, operators will face greater pressure, but there is no way in the system. ”
Ken also mentioned the problem of operators, "more and more intelligent terminals, network operators on the mobile terminal control will be less and less, lower value-added, less bargaining power, and gradually be replaced by third-party platforms such as Android." It turned out to be a big challenge for the vendors who provide the services and content that are close to the operators. ”
In addition to operators, Ken also said that the current potentially riskier sectors include e-commerce, traditional software and terminal vendors.
"E-commerce will be more challenging next year." This investment too much, the user's consumption habits become not particularly good, everyone on the internet is particularly sensitive to prices. ”
"In addition, the traditional software industry is facing greater challenges." The industry two years before the heat, but with cloud computing, many small and medium-sized enterprises may directly use the service on the platform, is no longer a software manufacturer's customers. In the future, with the enterprise infrastructure, whether software developers or software users, will slowly go to the lower cost of the platform. ”
There is also, with the advent of mobile terminals, the production of non-intelligent machines more enterprises is a huge challenge. "Nokia and Motorola already have this problem. Chinese manufacturers, although relatively small, but like Millet and 360 are in the mobile phone. ”
In this respect, Rong concludes that the old monopoly pattern and market environment will be broken, the new pattern and market is forming.
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