The general seismic intensity is not exaggerated in imagination

After Chrysler filed for bankruptcy a few weeks ago, the US general also filed for bankruptcy protection on June 1, making the original financial crisis a lot more onerous.　　Many people worry about how much the impact of GM's bankruptcy will be. Although some people predict the worst, Goldman's Gaohua analysis may be reassuring. It argues that U.S. auto production fell by only about 3% after GM and Chrysler collapsed. By contrast, unemployment is even more severe, with 400,000 more unemployed in the next 1.5.　　But the addition of the two will only make G DP a small decline of about 0.2%, the impact is very limited.　　US auto output loss of about 300,000 vehicles the conclusion, Goldman Sachs Gaohua explains, is largely because there is no good reason to believe that demand for cars will be adversely affected by the bankruptcy event. In its view, bankruptcy is unlikely to lead to a sharp decline in car sales, although the possibility of a very short period of time, but this is only a temporary phenomenon. Most consumers who consider buying GM or Chrysler may end up buying. There are also some consumers who may delay their car-buying plans, and workers who are unemployed by GM and Chrysler are more likely to shelve their purchases for a long time.　　However, this part of the workforce is only a tiny fraction of the total labour force, and thus has a very limited impact on car sales. Since the demand for U.S. cars is not changing much, the collapse of the two companies will only lead to a drop in U.S.-made car sales. How much is it down? According to Goldman Sachs Gaohua, 80%-85% of the cars produced by American auto companies are produced domestically, while 60% of the components from multinational manufacturers are produced locally.　　In this context, only a transfer from a bankrupt company to a multinational manufacturer would lead to a fall in U.S. car production, which would be only 25% per cent of the transfer volume. Assuming that as the economy stabilises, sales climbed to about 10 million next year, while GM and Chrysler were not bankrupt, accounting for 30% of the sales. As a result of filing for bankruptcy protection, 50% of their sales will be preempted by other companies, 50% of which are divided by Ford and multinational manufacturers in proportion to 20/80.　　The direct loss of U.S. output, then, is equivalent to 300,000 vehicles (= 10 million x0.3x0.5x0.2), which is equivalent to 3% of the car output, or only about 0.05% of the US G D P ($ 25,000 per car, 14 trillion U.S. dollars in economic size).　　The unemployment problem caused by the bankruptcy of 400,000 people, not millions of, is bigger than that of car sales, but it is not as serious as some people have predicted, Gaohua Goldman Sachs. Unemployment is unavoidable. GM has drawn up a rough guide to the seriousness of the unemployment problem and submitted it to the U.S. government at the end of April. The plan predicts that by 2011, GM will reduce its own staff by about 27,000, and the number of layoffs will increase by 120,000 by the end of 2010, when some 2,400 outlets are closed. The number of direct layoffs in Chrysler is 10,000.Nearly 40,000 employees will be out of work after closing 789 outlets at the end of each year.　　In this way, the total number of layoffs in two companies is close to 200,000. Also, suppliers are likely to use the business adjustment opportunity to lay off staff. According to Gaohua, an auto analyst at Goldman Sachs, the number of layoffs may not be less than that of GM and Chrysler. As a result, the number of unemployed people who filed for bankruptcy protection by GM and Chrysler could be up to 400,000.　　As for some projections of unemployment of millions of people, Goldman Sachs Gaohua absurd, because it is equivalent to the entire auto industry unemployment. Overall, Goldman Sachs Gaohua that the impact of the bankruptcy incident on the actual G D P in the United States is extremely limited. As mentioned above, the direct effect of the change of automobile output on G D P is about 0.05%. In terms of unemployment, the average annual income of industrial workers in auto and auto parts is about $50,000 trillion, multiplied by the new 400,000 unemployed at the end of 2010, with an income loss of about $20 billion trillion, accounting for about 0.13% of G D p.　　The cumulative effect of the 0.2% of about G D P ——— is almost negligible in any case, especially in the current transition period of the American economy. Newspaper reporter Sinling