The growth of consumption to stabilize the rise of investment rating stock comments

According to today's investment "online analyst" on more than 70 domestic brokerage Institute of more than 1800 analysts ' investment rating data statistics, this week the top 30 stocks of the investment rating, the industry distribution is more dispersed: the chemical performance eye-catching, 6 companies were selected, household consumer durables 3 companies selected, metal and mining,　　Electricity, real estate, software has 2 companies into the glare of this period we choose consumer goods industry to comment. The National Bureau of Statistics May 13 released data shows that April total retail sales of consumer goods 934.32 billion yuan, an increase of 14.8%, excluding the real increase in price factors 17%, compared with the March growth of 0.1% and 0.6% respectively.　　Real growth in consumption has stabilized, and nominal growth in the context of deflation to maintain stability is not easy. It is noteworthy that in Europe and the United States market demand has generally declined, some foreign trade enterprises began to seek to change the possibility of domestic trading, the Canton Fair will be arranged "China's export commodities and Hong Kong-funded enterprises product domestic docking fair."　　Although foreign trade enterprises in the price and variety of products in different from domestic products, but such changes and consumer policy, still increase the income of residents together to support the relatively stable consumption. Guotai that from the structure of wholesale and retail sales above the quota, since the 2009, the proportion of essential consumer goods such as food, clothing and daily necessities began to increase, compared with the decline in the proportion of household appliances, communication equipment, especially petroleum and its products. In the case of home appliances, although there is a policy of rural cooperation, but by the price of steel, copper and other factors, the growth rate than food, clothing and other decline faster; but in January-April The National commercial housing area increased by 18.6%, and with the advent of policy effects and early summer, the growth of home appliances is expected to gradually recover.　　In addition, the car consumption ratio began to rise and maintain a high growth rate, but also with the booming housing market echoes, so that people on the Chinese economy has been expected to rebound. CICC predicts that, as a result of the low cardinality effect of the earthquake of May last year, combined with the 51 holiday and holiday of the Dragon Boat Festival, the consumer market is expected to grow faster in April this year, and this month the April retail sales, consumer confidence and other indicators may still be slightly repeated, But it is expected to gradually stabilize the recovery.　　In the second half of the year, if the economy recovers on schedule, the consumer market growth is expected to accelerate in the second half, and the base is even lower, so growth will be more pronounced.　　This week we chose the consumer goods industry related three big Asia Technology (000910), the Jinfeng liquor Industry (600616), Hefei Sanyo (600983) to give the comment. ★★★★ Technology (000910) valuation advantages highlight MDF, wood flooring market in the macro-economic overall to good, real estate appears over expectations of warmer support, production and marketing gradually turn good. The company's future performance growth is clear, the valuation advantage is more obvious. The future growth of the company's performance, in addition to the industry boom, there are: 1, this year, the completion of the Holy Elephant Group 40 of the Equity acquisition, the company a fewThe decline of shareholder's equity; 2, Guangdong Zhaoqing and Heilongjiang wood industry a total of 420,000 cubic meters of MDF production capacity in the next two years to enter into production period, 3, the financial costs fall.　　Citic Securities believes that the current 18 times-fold level of PE valuation relative to the company's future performance growth, relatively underestimated the company's intrinsic value. 08 company in the cost rise, the demand drops the double pressure, the forest industry main business still is good, indicated that the company brand and the industrial chain superiority is more outstanding. With the cost of decline, the demand for stability, the 09 company's business is expected to maintain stability in the trend of growth, at the same time, taking into account the acquisition of the Holy Elephant group 40 per cent of the 09-year performance of the thickening, CICC raised the big Asia technology earnings forecast, the industry average PE 22 times times, taking into account the company's double leading industry status, give its 10%　　PE valuation (24 times times) premium, increase the investment rating to "buy", the target price of 12 yuan. The company's 2009-2011 earnings forecasts were 0.44, 0.55 and 0.80 respectively, with a corresponding dynamic earnings ratio of 21, 17 and 11 times, according to an online analyst today.　　Currently, a total of 5 analysts followed, 1 people suggested "strong buy", 4 people suggested "buy", a comprehensive rating factor of 1.80. ★★★ Golden Maple Wine Industry (600616) sound development of the company's current sales regional strategy to Shanghai-oriented, Shanghai should be said to be the commanding heights of Chinese rice wine, high-end rice wine consumption is also more, but also to establish a high-end brand of the important market, and from the current stage of cost input and the corresponding benefits obtained, the Shanghai region is also the highest. The city outside the hope that Jiang, Zhejiang as a breakthrough, the national market to open up the difficulty, the cost is relatively high, need to do their own, the overall strategy of persuasion near attack distant broadcast "strategy.　　At present, the company in Fujian province sowing a little effect, a small number of sales. For the expo to be held in Shanghai next year, the company said it is actively preparing, hoping to take this opportunity to enhance the company's brand image, while relying on the increase in the number of Shanghai to expand Sales, the company does not carry out the relevant substantive work, but proposed a number of points, such as whether the use of Shanghai Joint Pavilion to display some products　　Some high-end products will be made into gift wine.　　Guotai estimated that 2009, 2010 of sales can also have a faster growth, the first to more optimistic attitude to see the Expo brought about by the increase in sales, is expected to sell prices will not rise, maintain 2009 years EPS0.63 Yuan, consider the World Expo factors adjusted 2010 EPS to 0.76 Yuan, maintain a "cautious overweight" rating. The company's 2009-2011 earnings forecasts were 0.59, 0.68 and 0.78 respectively, with a corresponding dynamic earnings ratio of 28, 24 and 21 times, according to an online analyst today.　　At present, a total of 13 analyst tracking, 1 people suggested "strong buy", 9 people suggested "buy", 3 people suggested "wait-and-see", Comprehensive rating factor 2.15. ★★★★★ Hefei Sanyo (600983) policy spring up new opportunities　　The drive of company change is not simply from the company level, but the representative of a mode of the reform of the state-owned enterprise in Hefei, namely "target responsibility system" management. While promoting the reform of state-owned enterprises, Hefei spares no effort to make the central household appliance industry cluster. In addition to supporting the company to the washing machine business bigger and stronger, the government that should actively make up for the current Hefei home appliance industry matching short board.　　In this context, the company's washing machine motor as a key to support and encourage the project aroused our concern. With the support of the Government, the company intends to build tens of thousands of units of the scale of the motor manufacturing base. Technical support mainly from Japan Sanyo, especially the inverter motor, the current core technology and production capacity is mainly concentrated in the hands of Japanese and Korean brands, the company will be Japan Sanyo technology and the Chinese market, the development prospects can be.　　The motor confession can reduce the cost, improve the competitiveness of the products, and become the new income and profit growth point. New development: Export and water purification equipment. Washing machine export business has made a breakthrough, after 08 years of bedding and preparation work, 09 will achieve better development.　　The Water equipment project has also become the reserve product of subsequent exerting force, although it is difficult to contribute more obvious income and profit in the short term, but the prospect is broad. We see the company's broader growth space, taking into account the motor project, export expansion of income and profit contribution, increase earnings forecasts, 09-11-year earnings per share of 0.55 yuan, 0.90 yuan and 1.31 yuan, to increase the rating to "overweight", 6-12 months target price of 18 yuan,　　The corresponding 08 and 09 PE were 33 times times and 20 times times respectively. The company's 2009-2011 earnings forecasts were 0.49, 0.65 and 0.79 respectively, with a corresponding dynamic earnings ratio of 27, 21 and 17 times, according to an online analyst today. At present, a total of 9 analyst tracking, 1 people suggested "strong buy", 6 people suggested "buy", 2 people suggested "wait-and-see", Comprehensive rating factor 2.11. (Invest Today)