The housing market cools and beware of hot money pouring in

Yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics issued 70 cities nationwide housing index. Figures show that October, the national housing Sales price index rose 8.6% in the same period last year, the chain September rose 0.2%. Among them, the new residential price index year-on-year, the chain Rose 10.6%, 0.3% respectively, second-hand housing price index year-on-year, the chain Rose 5.9%, 0.1% respectively. The city, the October housing Sales price Index year-on-year, the chain Rose 7.2%, 0.1% respectively. Among them, new house, second-hand housing rose 9.4%, 3.7% respectively, the chain are flat. "Under the two regulation background, the national property market in the next six months will be significantly cooled," said Yang Hongxu, Minister of comprehensive research at Shanghai Yi Ju. "Regulation of the next year or a negative growth in spite of the national housing prices are still rising, but it is worth mentioning that in October, 70 large and medium-sized housing sales prices year-on-year increase than September 0.5%, the quarter-on-quarter increase than September down 0.3%.　　Among them, the new residential sales price year-on-year increase was reduced by 0.7%, second-hand housing sales price year-on-year increase of 0.3%, the quarter-on-quarter increase than September 0.4%. Zhong Wenhui, deputy director of research at Tianjin branch of China Index Institute, said that the actual effect of the two regulation on the market was much more obvious than the data display. "In the real estate market, there is a lag in the data from transactions to registrations, which generally reflect a 1-2-week delay in the data." "Zhong Wenhui revealed that the current national hundred city for sale prices are relatively stable, discounted price increases significantly. "The decline in market volume in the first week of November was clear, indicating that two controls were tougher than previous measures." "Yang Hongxu said:" In the new wave of regulation, November price chain growth will appear a micro-negative. We still believe that the four quarter and the first quarter of next year prices will be consolidation or a small decline in the main tone. House prices are expected to rise by about 6% per cent this year and may show negative growth in the two quarter. "The housing market has not harmed the economy before some industry insiders said that property regulation may have a negative impact on economic growth, the state measures will be concerned." However, the data show that January-October the National Real estate development investment of 3.807 trillion yuan, an increase of 36.5%, the increase is 0.1% higher than January-September, which is the first rise after 4 consecutive months of decline. Since last June, real estate development investment has maintained a high level of operation, significantly more than the entire social fixed asset investment growth, the role of promoting the national economy is clear, the state temporarily do not worry about regulating the property market negative impact on the economy.　　Yang Hongxu said that October China's real estate development investment of 455.8 billion yuan, an increase of 37%. Yang Hongxu predicted that the next few months will be affected by stringent regulatory policies, investment in developers to gradually cool down, real estate development investment year-on-year increase will be transferred to the downward trajectory, but because the scale of affordable housing investment is still large, the expected increase in the decline in the space is not big. January-October This year, China's commodity residential investment 2.6683 trillionYuan, an increase of 33.8%, accounting for real estate development investment in the proportion of 70.1%. The proportion of individual loans for housing enterprises was reduced by 1-10 months, and the real estate development enterprises were 5.6923 trillion yuan in this year, with an increase of 32%, a decrease of 0.5% in January-September and a decline of 8 consecutive months.　　Among them, domestic loan 1.0443 trillion yuan, growth 26.3%, use foreign capital 53.9 billion yuan, increase 43.3%, self-financing 2.1553 trillion yuan, increase 50.7%, other capital 2.4387 trillion yuan, increase 21%. From the development of the sources of financing of enterprises, the impact of the credit crunch this year, the proportion of domestic loans in the source of funds continued to decline, from January-February 23.77% to October 18.4%;　　In addition, after the implementation of the New Deal two, personal mortgage loans accounted for 5 consecutive months a small decline. It is particularly noteworthy that in the current year, the real estate enterprises in the source of funds, the January-October increase in the use of foreign investment up to 43.3%, the increase is much higher than the first three quarters 26% and January-August 23.9% growth. October one months increased foreign capital as high as 8.7 billion yuan, accounting for the first 10 months of the total use of foreign capital of more than 16%. Yang Hongxu said: "In the housing enterprise funds face the overall tightening trend, should be wary of hot money into the property market, pushing up asset prices." ”