The housing market is not a good time to buy a house

Summary: Whether the house is a fan or Shark's fin, there will be a very different answer for people who are ready to buy a house and have bought a house.　　From left to right is: Peking University public Economic Research Center researcher Han Shitong, Zhongshan University International Business Department director Wang, Guangdong Zhongyuan Real Estate Project department general manager Huang. Whether a house is a fan or Shark's fin is a very different answer for people who are ready to buy a house and have bought a house. Within six months, some rigid demand in the domestic housing market began to be released, spurred by a surge in housing policy and credit. The housing market from the freezing point to heating up, the twinkling of an eye began to hot.　　The unrest in the housing market has left many buyers in the middle of a dilemma. At the Sunday China-Great Lingnan Church, sponsored by the Southern Metropolis Daily, sponsored by Merchants Bank, the "Golden Sunflower South Capital Forum", Wang, director of the International Business Department of Sun Yat-sen University, Han Shitong, researcher of the Center for Public Economic Research　　Guangdong Zhongyuan Real Estate project general manager Huang Three research Guangzhou real estate personage explains the trend of Guangzhou property this year, and forecasts the opportunity and risk that the real estate of Guangzhou will face in the second half. The housing market is warmer than recovery. According to the official data, the first 5 months of this year, the Guangzhou property market overall price stability, one-hand commodity residential trading volume of 3.1787 million square meters, an increase of 81.5%. From April onwards, one or two hand market activity level increased further. From the average price, the urban central city of Guangzhou, the increase in housing prices is more obvious.　　Second-hand commodity residential transactions volume of 2.829 million square meters, an increase of 56.7% per cent, May second-hand goods home turnover rose to 834,200 square meters, not only since 2008 second-hand monthly turnover more than first hand, but also set a second-hand monthly turnover since 2006 new highs. Han Shitong that, from the overall judgment can see the first half of this year, the rise in house prices, the trend of soaring. Prices have been rising, especially in the heartland, but not yet back to 2007 levels. "The housing market has really warmed up, but I don't accept the housing recovery or accept the reversal of the market," he said. The housing recovery comes from three factors: the state bailout policy, the rigid demand is partially released by the policy impact, and the developers have since last year been actively selling at reasonable prices to inventory.　　"Han Shitong said. Wang A comparison of consumer confidence indices and price indices in the US and China, which can largely foresee the economy (especially asset price movements). From the index, there was no evidence of a fundamental rebound in the two indices in both China and the United States.　　Meanwhile, unemployment has risen to its highs since April 2007, and there are no signs of a recovery in the economy. Wang through empirical research, concluded that the real estate market, although there are signs of rebound, but mainly by liquidity support, not the real economic recovery caused. "We know that with the development of the real economy, the expansion of the virtual economy will come back sooner or later. Han Shitong also agrees with Wang's statement. "There is no fundamental reversal of cyclical change in the short term," he said. Now that we have so many politicalStrategy, the equivalent of a patient with a cardiac tonic appeared very good phenomenon. Turnover and house prices have shown signs of warming and have come to a certain extent.　　"The bailout policy is too much for the government's rescue is the main reason for the housing market to rebound, but the housing prices still high, the government should bail out?" Han Shitong said: "I am more supportive and agree with the government bailout, because I think the real estate is a bit like a lake after the earthquake." The economic, export and stock markets of the 2008 were a mess, and if the only housing market that could survive collapsed, we could declare a recession and an economic crisis. The original construction Bank has been simulated test, house prices down 30% no problem, the deal shrank a little, and panic. Now the whole government relies on real estate very high, so the rescue is necessary. "But now the situation is that the government bailout policy is too good, the policy is more favorable than the industry's expectations." "The government will release two of mortgages and set interest rates free, which is tantamount to encouraging the tenants to buy." There are also 5 trillion new loans in the first 5 months, which clearly will have an important impact on the stock market and the housing market in the second half.　　"Han Shitong thinks. Wang through a series of theoretical and empirical analysis, the real impact on China's housing prices three main factors are per capita disposable income level, consumer price index, land price. If the government wants to curb house prices, the most effective way to control the price of land and inflation, and the most effective way to boost the housing market is to raise the income of residents. The Government's policy of boosting the real estate industry since June 2008 is mainly based on interest rate and tax system.　　And from the policy of stimulating domestic demand in China, there is no evidence that the residents ' disposable income is increasing. Housing market long-term bearish does not suggest the current second half of the property market and trend, Han Shitong that the two possibilities are relatively large, one is to maintain stability, house prices have been a certain degree of control, and turnover to maintain the rise and stability, which is more idealistic. But it now seems more difficult, as house prices have already gained momentum.　　The other is the housing market housing prices rise, deal big fall situation, house prices soaring, resulting in shrinking transactions. Inflation expectations are now pushing up housing and equities. But Wang said that through the CPI analysis, China's price level is still falling, and now each month compared with the same period, China's CPI will decline a situation, these months are the case, so the government has adopted a lot of stimulus policies.　　Various economic data suggest that recession and deflation are undeniable realities, overcapacity and falling prices. Let's say that if deflation were to happen before, what would inflation do? Han Shitong said: "Cash is more valuable than real estate, we throw money into the stock market, the property market, how much cash do you have?" You worry that depreciation will buy stocks and property, that a lot of money will be concentrated in the hands of government and banking institutions, and that the real spending power on the market and the impetus for the stock market are getting smaller. Although the depreciation of cash is inevitable, but whether at this time should be dumped? What if there are 3-5 years of deflation? The Asian financial Wind aloneViolence is from 1998 to 2005, this deflationary effect is very serious, down 8 times, at that time, we get the money is very valuable, but we have no money in hand, the stock does not sell out, the house is not sold, how do you sell it? Han Shitong thinks, now many people choose to buy shares and buy a house, a few choose to hold the currency to buy, wait and see, Cash is king. Truth and truth will be in the hands of a few.　　Why the rich are few, because the rich are reverse thinking, reverse operation. And Wang said that from the current point of view, from a longer period of time to look forward to the next 5-7 years of house price trend, it will be slowly downward trend. Wang's view is relatively pessimistic. But he added that a bubble in the relative price of a property could be blown up if the country continued to carry out a large monetary easing. "We think the long-term price will go down, do not rule out a short-term rebound in the possibility."　　Wang concludes.　　Interaction: From a macro-economic point of view, do you think the future will be deflation before inflation is followed, then how long will deflation last? Han Xi: If according to the historical economic cycle of the law, the real estate cycle is about 10 years. From 1998 to 2008, Hong Kong after the Asian financial turmoil experienced a cycle from recession to depression to recovery to prosperity. If history repeats itself, then we will also experience such an approximate cyclical cycle. Now, the correction of the whole property price has lasted about a year or so, but a series of macro policies may suspend or prevent the economy from entering recession and depression in the short term, but will it bring the economy directly into the inflation state?　　To see how long the effect of macro-control will last, if the economy can not rely on regulatory recovery, the government will continue to play macro-control card. We also need to think about whether we can break the rules of economic operation by human factors. After artificial inflation, it is possible to enter a relatively long downward cycle.　　At that time, house prices may be a continuous process of negative decline. Q: 2007 The market popular word, "we can not run Liu Xiang, but to win the CPI." "Now, the world is in big went money machine, the future inflation may be very ferocious." So the answer now is to buy a house.　　Besides, how should we deal with this expectation? Han Xi: If inflation is in sight, buying shares and buying houses are a tool to fight inflation. But is inflation really coming so soon? Government investment and bank lending are not allowed to enter the stock market or the housing market by legal means. Unless policies such as tax cuts are adopted, a long process is needed for 4 trillion of the effect to be passed on to consumers. Investment-led overcapacity needs to be digested by the eventual need for growth, and demand is not up now.　　and is the price of buying a flat or buying a stock slightly higher? If the stock market and housing peak are 6,000 points, then the stock market is now halfway up, the property market is relatively higher, similar to the stock market 4000 to 5,000 point position. While the risk of future inflation needs to be considered, it cannot be overlooked that prices may fall further. If the housing marketAnd the pullback is down to 1000, and your assets may shrink even more. And will inflation lead to a currency devaluation that quickly?　　At least there is no sign of such ferocious inflation? The real estate investment operation proposal avoids the average force real estate investment includes residential, commercial and office buildings, and returns can be achieved by one-time selling or rental income. Investment in this area is actually a "personalized" solution, and everyone's portfolio may be different. Whether it's a wholesale market or a store that buys a commercial center, it can be a huge payoff, but it's good for different types of investors. 500,000 and 10 million of the money invested in real estate can be profitable, but the way and direction of investment is different.　　In addition, the return period of real estate investment may be more than 10 years, the process of different types of property price fluctuations and income of the graphics are not the same.　　So investors need to keep in mind, do not average force, no primary and secondary, should choose the most suitable for their own investment methods. The cheapest is not necessarily the best investment Huang pointed out that in the actual operation, he found that many investors easily fall into the "price advantage" of the misunderstanding. "Don't think the cheapest is the best investment," Huang said. In commercial property and shop investment, investors tend to think that the cheaper the rents or prices of shops, the better, but the opposite is true. Investors should look at the profitability rather than the absolute rent and the price of the commercial real estate investment, before the investment should assess the location of the property and appreciation potential, the average monthly business volume of shops and so on. "We see in the nine and Beijing roads in these areas, shop rents are very good, but there are many people to rent, and even paved the rents, prices have been rising, and some suburban areas can not do, that is the truth." The yield factor is more important than the price or rent factor. "Fixed rate of return: Residential than commercial stability" from a fixed rate of return, housing is now more stable than office buildings and shops. Huang said that, assuming rents as the main form of return, the current residential fixed rate of return of about 3%-4%, and business in 6%-8%. This level is significantly lower than it was five or six years ago.　　The rate of return on housing, although very low, is relatively small, and the risks of office and shop investment are relatively high by the economic crisis. "There are still a lot of uncertainties in the environment, and now some office rents are still on the decline." "Huang reminds property investors who expect fixed returns through rental income to pay attention to this risk."　　So how should they choose to enter the market when they are living with their own needs? Do not have to think too much about home prices Huang said there is no need to consider the housing price factor. "At present, more than 8,000 of the average price of southern sandy area, including more than 3,000 yuan prices, including the Pearl River New town more than 30,000 yuan price, for the home buyers do not have much reference value." "He said in the short term, June-August real estate turnover will fall, then the price will be reversed with the volume, so the price will be adjusted in August-September."But for the Huang investor, he thinks it's time to hit the right house. "The short-term dislocation of the situation can not be reversed, many central areas of housing prices do not fall too much space." "Huang, for example," the supply of Panyu and Huadou area is abundant, but many of their own needs are to Yuexiu, Tianhe and other areas of the house. There are no signs of change in the short term, so the trend of long-term housing prices is still rising, but the process is repeatedly fluctuating. Huang says that since housing is not normally sold for 3-5 years, the longer-term price of the property cannot be judged.　　So buyers should be shot when the shot. This period of co-ordination: Chei Yanxia