The internet has created its own unique economic cycle

"The internet is the first human to initiate, participate in, and end the stock market bubble of technology, the Internet has created their own unique economic cycle, big, big fall, back to normal orbit, cycle." "The above statement can be seen as the best summary of the 2000 global dotcom bubble." Now, China's internet companies, which hatch after the first dotcom bubble, are heading for the top, while they are worrying that they will fall after the big one.

The so-called internet bubble, is too much money to chase a company or project, and then create a huge value space, and find a more rich fool to pick up. For this "drumming" game, the domestic surging IPO boom is like an increasingly dense drum, although the drums have not stopped, the signs of the dotcom bubble has been revealed.

Bubble sign a No bad money

Pay attention to the side, people are not difficult to find, bus and subway flashed Chen Yao's figure, that is net ads; CCTV 315 Party before the heavy advertising comes from the handle network, where the customer sincerity product small test to create a prestigious "where the object" ... These ads are expensive, of which net for the hit ads to invest 400 million yuan, and where the passenger network is expected to 2011 years of advertising costs will reach 10 digits, that is, 1 billion yuan.

Senior sales of a large portal website revealed to reporters that even if the cost of advertising on their website has increased by 30%, the electric Business enterprise in this year's advertising investment is still called "crazy", in the advertisement burning money is not only last year more popular SNS, video sites, etc., this year, in addition to the first group purchase site, mother and child , shoes, 3 C, books, home and other categories of the website also compete to get the money into the advertising campaign.

In fact, billion-level advertising in the domestic internet industry has not been a big deal, to have a certain well-known group of Groupon Network for example, it is reported that its plan to hit 550 million yuan for advertising promotion, and its competitors glutinous rice network and the United States Group Network is planned to invest 200 million and 130 million dozen ads.

According to a reporter to get a copy of E-commerce advertising main analysis of the data show that from the cost of advertising in January this year, in the consumer Web site, the annual growth of 400% of the clothing category site "where the customer net" up to 100 million yuan, luggage category Web site "wheat Bag" 45.7 million yuan, food category website "I buy a net" 41.12 million Yuan, Creative Life Class website "Fun Play Net" for 18.67 million yuan ... It seems that the 1 billion plan is not a slogan, but the real silver bomb offensive.

In 2011 E-commerce Annual meeting, full network CEO Feng slightly humorous words through a hint of helplessness, "group buying industry because of the entry of capital to produce a great change." The first big change is that we are very impetuous, at the same time also very nervous, sleep is because of capital; second, to get the capital of the site are no longer profitable, we last year in July was very healthy, there is profit earned, KBCP cast after us, said the profit first do not consider, first think scale. So, we quickly put the scale to the end of the year will be nearly 25 of the size of the city. Feng said: "At present, advertising costs accounted for 30% of the full operating costs." ”

Bubble indication two financing gives IPO price

Obviously, the Chukin of the Internet enterprise comes from venture capital VC's backing. From 2011 onwards, tens of millions of dollars in the level of financing no longer become news, Lok Amoy Nets, 24 votes, poly, such as large and small sites have claimed to have won the Tens venture. Among them, the video site PPLive only a few minutes "elevator time" won the soft silver 250 million dollar story, has long been uploaded in the news media as a tale--in fact, pplive only in Alexa ranked more than 50, but also face Youku, potatoes, thunder and other strong opponents, hard to say the future geometry. Still, PPLive is now valued at $700 million trillion.

Financing is bigger is Jingdong mall, according to its C-round financing estimates, the investor DST to Jingdong Mall invested 500 million U.S. dollars, only to exchange for 5% of the shares, that is, Jingdong Mall current valuation reached 10 billion U.S. dollars. For VC, if invest 100,000 yuan in the first round of investment in Jingdong, the valuation now will exceed 100 million yuan.

In addition to large Internet companies, VC burning money is not eccentric, even the less qualified small Internet companies are now very popular. A vertical E-commerce site has just been online, financing plans have surfaced, its founder to reporters, their first round of financing the goal of about 100 million yuan. "This year, the enthusiasm of the power companies has continued to increase, investment volume can be said to a level, if the first round of financing in the last year is expected to be about 50 million yuan." ”

And another apparel E-commerce site recently announced to get tens of millions of dollars in the wind, and in the last year when the reporter interviewed him, the number of their daily orders only about hundreds of, when less than even dozens of single, looks just like a three-stream E-commerce site level.

A partner at an investment agency told reporters that I have been involved in the Internet investment, then the amount of investment in the million-dollar level, and now a leap of billion: "Take the recent public comment network in the financing with Shiyan IPO, it can be said that the investor gave the IPO price." ”

Liu Xingliang, a leading internet critic, told reporters that he had also listened to friends of investment organizations who had wanted to invest 1 million of dollars in a website, but found it needed 10 million dollars to operate and had to put the matter on hold, and many domestic internet companies are indeed overvalued.

Bubble signs three innovation scarcity and cottage proliferation

"Presumably now is the most exciting time for Chinese internet companies, before there are Youku, 360 and other enterprises of the successful listing, after VC venture capital a lot of money to hit." Huang, who works on Wall Street, told reporters that for a while, Chinese Internet companies had indeed become the talk of his and his peers. Huang said that he and many American peers believe that, although more and more Chinese companies are beginning to look forward to listing in the U.S., VC is more than happy, but almost every Chinese internet companies can find a model of American companies, "Youku" is China's YouTube, diamond birds are imitating ' Blue Nile ', ' When ' The Amazon model approaches, even the upcoming ' Renren ' is also known as China's Facebook ... Chinese Internet companies still seem to lack innovation. ”

In the late 90, while the first internet bubble formed, the market in that era was full of longing for ideas and innovation, and now people are only concerned about the market and the huge user base. When asked if there is an internet bubble in the domestic industry, the answer to Shong, the founding partner of IDG Capital, is that there is no bubble, "there are now 400 million netizens, the foundation is completely different." ”

The lack of innovation derived from the group purchase Site "Thousand Regiment War" like embarrassment, well-known industry personage Xiang (micro bo) has smiled, China's Internet serious lack of innovation, even should be good at improving, breakthrough Sichuan cuisine learning.

The same bad situation in the domestic online gaming industry, which has nurtured a grand, nine cities and other Nasdaq listed companies, "national industry" is experiencing a slowdown in the crisis. "2010 China online game Market Annual Report" shows that the industry is expected to rely on innovation to reverse the decline, but did not chengxiang online games industry Shanzhai Rampage, the big guys are copying each other, and even their own phenomenon of plagiarism occurs frequently. Innovative driving force is insufficient, homogeneity and plagiarism serious, is leading to nearly 70% online gaming enterprises face death.

Liu Xingliang said: "The last time the internet bubble in the United States, this round is likely to start from China!" Those in their own area of the top of the site should be less affected, compared to the bottom of the site will not be too much volatility, the most likely to be attacked by the internet bubble should be just listed or intermediate links of the site. I think the impact will be significant next year. ”

• Expert Opinion ·

Steve Blank: "Ugly daughter-in-law" always wants to see her in-laws.

Steve Blank, an influential figure in Silicon Valley's entrepreneurial world, is the founder of 8 startups and teaches entrepreneurship at UC Berkeley, Stanford and Columbia's business school, the author of the history of Silicon Valley. He received an interview with the IT Times reporter for the topic of the dotcom bubble.

It times: Chinese companies continue to be IPOs in the US, are they overvalued?

Steve Blank: It's hard to make a judgment of all things in the short term certainly, but not for long. The latest market-driven IPO bubble has never been seen in business history, with billions of of users generating huge revenues and profits, and internet companies ' growth will be staggering. The company's late valuations are booming, and it's getting harder to recruit talent in Silicon Valley, with new offerings continuing and bubbles showing. Investors are so imaginative about the size of the Chinese market that when most Chinese start surfing the internet, using tablets and mobile phones, they can start counting, but it may be a little early.

It times: What is the current internet situation similar to 1995~2000?

When Steve blank:1995~2000, people thought it was just ". com". Netscape began to convince underwriters that as long as the public was happy to snap up stocks, they would be able to make huge profits from the inflated valuations-thus starting a 5-year bubble. Netscape IPO became the entrepreneurial script, then the mantra is "gets", replicable method is "brand, hype, turnover or listing."

With unprecedented internet opportunities in the 2011, companies like Facebook and Zynga will create greater value than any other company in the past. Unlike in the past, today's internet startups can do "agile development", which means they can develop their first product in a few weeks, and tens of thousands of dollars of investments come from friends or family. As I mentioned in the four-step epiphany, the generation of business models has become a new standard.

It times: When will the dotcom bubble burst? How does it break?

Steve Blank: Unlike the last bubble, the first wave of the bubble will be the IPO of Facebook, Zynga and other star companies to showcase their real revenues, profits and huge customer base. Like all bubbles, these companies will attract the continued attention of the Fund, and the IPO pipeline will be rapidly reduced, and then the bubble will burst. It's hard to say the exact time, but if the bubble started a year ago, maybe 5 years from now, 2014 or 2015 will break.

It times: Do you think China's internet companies have enough innovation?

Steve Blank: The Rise of China as an economy is breathtaking. Just as the United States overtook Britain at the beginning of the 20th century, China in 21st century was on the road to overtaking America. As in the United States of America, the early days tended to imitate rather than innovate. But this is only a stage, not a permanent state.

It times: A recent Chinese video website similar to YouTube pplive 250 million of dollars in venture capital, do you think this investment is too much?

Steve Blank: I don't know pplive, but 250 million dollars looks like a lot of start-up money. I believe that this money should not appear on the front end of the enterprise development, but should be at the back end to help expand the scale.