The lack of the chain data economy is still a mystery

Xiao in the first half of July 15 economic data conference, the National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Laiyun pointed out that the two-quarter economy compared to the first quarter of the acceleration, still need to be specific estimates, difficult to give a conclusion. "Because the chain calculation is relatively complex.　　"he said. Earlier in the data conference last year, the former spokesman Li pointed out that the first quarter of 2010 is expected to release GDP (gross domestic product) chain data. This year's statistical work conference also raised this goal. But no quarterly Quarter-on-quarter figures were released in the first quarter and in the year.　　The National Bureau of Statistics is combining Nankai University to use models to measure GDP quarter-on-quarter data. The chain of GDP is an important index to determine whether the economy is speeding up. This lack of data, to the study of the current economic trend has increased the difficulty. Economic growth in the two quarter was 10.3% per cent, compared with 11.9% in the first quarter, according to data released 15th, but the decline was based on a faster-than-quarterly slowdown in the two quarter.　　So it is still hard to determine whether the economy is slowing down. One interesting figure is that electricity generation in the two quarter grew by 6.2% in the first quarter.　　Laiyun pointed out that some indicators run well, because the economic growth rate has a certain degree of decline, which is related to the cardinality. He pointed out that the current year-on-year growth of the fall, is the macro-control expected to achieve results. "In this case, to maintain the stability and continuity of policy, according to new circumstances, new problems, enhance the policy of pertinence, flexibility and predictability, grasp the intensity, rhythm and focus of macro-control." "Whether the two-quarter economic downturn is still a mystery" according to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics, the first half of the year, the number of industrial growth increased by 17.6% year-on-year, faster than 10.6%. In June, the growth rate of above-scale industry was only 13%.　　Many institutions therefore believe that year-on-year growth has begun to decline. The National Bureau of Statistics gave a two-quarter economic growth rate of 10.3%.　　Industrial Bank analyst Lu Commissar believes that, according to industry growth rate, if the industrial growth rate of above 12% or even below, then the economic growth rate will be less than 8%, which shows signs of rapid economic decline.　　The second quarter of economic growth fell, mainly due to the impact of the base last year and the results of some macro-control policies. It is reported that the 2009 economic trend is low after the high, after the first quarter adjusted, the initial verification of the quarterly GDP growth rate is 6.5%, two quarter to 8.1%. The rate of increase in industries above the scale of GDP is similar, with a 5.1% increase in the first quarter of the year and 9.1% in the two quarter.　　Last year's base from low to high, to pull down the two quarter of this year's economic growth, played a big role.　　However, the two quarter of the economy compared to the first quarter, whether the acceleration or deceleration, still inconclusive. Although electricity consumption in the first half of the year has slipped, it is strange that electricity and power generation are still on the rise, with electricity generation growing by 6.2% in the two quarter. WhileJune, the social power consumption 352 Billion-kilowatt, the year-on-year growth of 14.14%, the growth rate than May down 6.66%, the chain growth of 1.1%. The NBS monitoring also found that steel production increased by 12.8% in the two quarter from the first quarter. This is similar to the increase in the number of power generation.　　That could mean a two-quarter growth in the industry above the scale, which is faster than the first quarter. Laiyun, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that despite a certain pullback in the two-quarter economic growth, it was still running in the normal growth zone.　　GDP grew by 10.3% in the second quarter, which is still very high, almost in line with the two-quarter growth rate of the past decade, the average of 2000 and 2009. "A moderate decline in economic growth is conducive to preventing the economy from moving towards overheating, which is conducive to greater structural adjustment and change in the way of development."　　"he said. The second half of the adjustment to the stability of the main Laiyun pointed out that the first half of the Chinese economy has maintained a high growth, high employment, low inflation, such a good development trend.　　This lays a good foundation for achieving the expected goals for the whole year.　　Therefore, the second half of the year to adhere to the positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, according to the new situation, new issues to enhance the policy of pertinence and flexibility, grasp the intensity, rhythm and focus of macro-control.　　He said this was consistent with previous policy makers, but the first quarter of the "management of inflation expectations" as the main goal of macro-control, was "low inflation" in place of the argument.　　Laiyun that, from the economic operating environment, prices in general moderate controllable, basically stable.　　Consumer price index CPI rose 2.6% in the first half of the year, the growth rate is relatively moderate and stable. But he objected that prices were still being taken seriously. "May and June CPI chain of a certain degree of decline, price increases pressure eased, but can not be taken lightly, the second half of the economic operation is still full of uncertainty, the trend of prices are also some uncertainties." Therefore, we still have to pay attention to managing inflation expectations.　　Tang Jianwei, senior macro analyst at the Bank of Communications Finance Research Center, pointed out that the second half of the macro-policy in order to enhance the flexibility of policy and targeted, in view of the second half of the domestic price increase may significantly slow down, the need for higher interest rates significantly reduced, is expected to raise interest rate is not likely For this reason, the pressure to further increase the reserve ratio is significantly reduced in monetary policy. Regulation of liquidity is mainly open market operation, the second half of the reserve ratio to maintain a stable probability of greater.　　At the same time, economic growth is likely to slow in the second half of the year and, if necessary, credit line controls may be moderately relaxed to keep investment growth at a certain level. In terms of fiscal policy, stimulating consumption and promoting consumption escalation remain policy targets.　　At the same time, we should increase residents ' income and increase the contribution rate of service industry to economy. It is reported that in the first half of this year the share of the tertiary industry in GDP increased from 41.3% last year to 42.6% this year, while theThe second industry's share fell from 50.1% last year to 49.7%. Laiyun that the economic structure and quality of growth are improving.