The mobile internet age is quite different from the PC Internet age

Three weeks ago, MA at the Chinese Entrepreneur Club's internal Salon said that the mobile internet age of the operating rules and the PC Internet era is completely different, Tencent without micro-letter, it could be a disaster ...

In my view, this is a widely accepted view of the industry, MA only said the first half: the mobile internet age of the operating rules and the PC Internet age is completely different. As for the second half, it remains to be seen, that is, even with the micro-letter, it does not mean that Tencent can escape the "subversion" of the disaster, or even, micro-letter itself also embedded a lot of disaster seeds.

Why? I'm trying to analyze it from two angles.

A, micro-letter is a ticket, but Tencent is an ark

Everyone knows, just as QQ has made the current Tencent, micro-letter has been placed in the same or even higher expectations, because the mobile Internet market prospects wider, imagine more space. However, as Ma said: The mobile internet age is completely different from the PC Internet age. So, the day growth in mobile phone micro-letter, can withstand the weight of Tencent?

In my opinion, the micro-letter which exists in the mobile Internet ecology is not superior to the QQ that exists in the PC Internet ecology in terms of stability (defensive) and extensibility (aggressiveness). If once QQ can become the flesh of Tencent, that today's micro-letter is at best a face of Tencent, even if it has unlimited imagination space.

First of all, micro-letter in essence is more suitable for the mobile phone side of an instant messaging tool, said explicit point, it is a short MMS upgrade version. It has a very streamlined interface, smooth interaction, easy-to-use features, but it is the main reason for its real success, but also because Tencent has no more than the user resources and operating resources. Plainly, it will only be Tencent's ability in the short term (perhaps a new social hegemon in the future).

So, even if Tencent has 10,000 internal differences, 10,000 unwilling, when the user unconsciously to the micro-letter as a more suitable for mobile phone side of the QQ (the original is also based on instant communication to conquer users), "the same root-fry" of the play must be staged. It is seen that the micro-letter in a short span of two years to gather 400 million users, but can never understand how the internal Tencent has paid the price.

The outside world also often ignores the fact that in the micro-letter installation volume soared to 400 million at the same time, the user did not give up their 15 years of QQ. Because, Tencent "one-stop life service" concept, has been through QQ intrusion Gui user's daily life (Tencent has also harvested for many years of high-speed financial growth).

When you observe every active micro-trust users behind, almost all hung a silent online qq, many people also hang Tencent Weibo. This is the cruelty of reality-the light is often in front of the not far, the foot also often leave endless stumbling.

Reviewing the transformation and adjustment of Tencent in the past two years, you will find that the logic behind it hides huge risks and vulnerabilities--micro-letter to QQ, not a great product within the metabolic escalation, but a great product that turned out to be a great product that defeated another momentary doze; is a Zhangxiaolong, Knock awake the short sleep of the Tencent people.

Isn't that good? Of course not! It is no exaggeration to say that the Tencent team before 2011 was a complete loser and a passive loser in the mobile Internet field. Really good results, Tencent has been relying on the core team QQ team-can be in the mobile Internet tide, complete self-improvement, self metabolism, self-improvement, this is not only the least risk, but also the transition is the most smooth, it does not need to redefine the vision, no need to redefine resources, no need to occupy the market, There is no need to go to a large area to polish the team ... Only need to "one-stop service" concept, continue to carry on the mobile phone side.

However, when the micro-letter with mobile internet tide, Tencent Wake, was himself startled. This point, from the MA that "when the giant fell down, the body is still warm" can be explained. Therefore, the slow-moving Tencent, desperate for micro-letter can take Tencent, the luxury warships into the mobile internet, the "Atlantic" to another new continent.

This is understandable, but the real worry is: After 5.0 version of the micro-letter has already exceeded the meaning of the ferry ticket, is speeding up by Tencent to create a luxury warship, from the public platform to the game, pay ... Tencent originally put on the core business model of QQ, almost all moved to micro-letter. Users are really willing to use a mobile phone although the function is super powerful, but the scene switch and page jump the same super complex app? Don't forget, this is not a PC, it's a mobile phone.

I do not know whether Zhangxiaolong also approved this strategy, I do not know whether the original QQ team is more loss of sense of direction. But I know that the root cause of the micro-letter won the user's favorite, but also in its excellent communication experience, and over the years through the QQ precipitation of other companies unparalleled user relationship resources. What about QQ? Whether it's a PC or a mobile phone, there's no "disruptive" feature that makes users scream.

In front of the micro-letter, also has not achieved absolute victory, after the upgrade of several versions, its core function is not a breakthrough, even compared to QQ, it is also weakened social, because in addition to shaking with the nearby people, users can not find other more valuable social sites, while the surrounding products are constantly to challenge the micro-letter, In addition to QQ complete product system and service value, I do not believe that the current micro-letter, is the user must not use. For most users, its essential meaning never goes beyond the more useful short MMS function.

Second, it is better to accelerate the mobile Internet of core business than to micro-credit the core business

Almost all of the competition is derived from within the industry, and almost all monopolies are also developed from conquering an industry. This is the market law, especially in the mobile internet age, the product upgrade and the need for the promotion of cross-impact, the industry become infinitely vertical, demand and services become infinitely subdivided.

Who is the biggest challenge to this trend? The biggest challenge for giant companies. They seem to be the most indestructible, but they are also the most vulnerable. Because, the ultimate solution of the giant enterprise is mostly platform, and the biggest hidden danger of the platform, is its product standardization, and gradually away from the line subdivide and changeful user demand. This is the scene described by Kelly: it seems that the Giants occupy the center of the user, in fact, subversion and innovation are always on the verge of happening.

So, when more and more voices are defined as a platform, we might as well reflect on whether Tencent is ready enough users to pick up the necessary products on the mobile side.

Micro-letter is now relatively clear several major business is: Public account platform, payment and games. First, the micro-trust platform is moving towards a lightweight distribution platform, but from the experience of some webapp products, it does not produce much real value, especially if the user experience of the same product embedded in other applications is difficult to maintain. Again, micro-letter games, there are data, micro-letter opened the game since the cumulative download more than 500 million, very impressive, but back to each user and each product itself, you will find that the micro-credit game scalability and the user's stickiness is very limited. Of course, this is just a small test to the ability of Tencent game team, this piece is now the most reason to be bullish. Tencent President Lau also recently publicly admitted that the game business has relied on micro-mail boarding.

Instead, I'm not as bullish on micro-credit as most voices are, and many of the comments are highlighting the advantages of micro-credit payments and predicting that micro-credit payments will go beyond Alipay. In my opinion, the challenge of micro-credit payment in the short term is far greater than the game. The game can be a self-contained system, but the payment will require an absolute scenario to support the electrical quotient.

I believe most users can feel the convenience of credit card binding, but that's not the key, because there are so many apps that can bind credit cards, and how many people are willing to tie their credit cards to a micro-signal if the security of the mobile Internet is still a big risk? Micro-mail (Tencent) itself is currently not available for sale (micro-expression or anything).

At present, the largest payment trading scene in China occurs in the field of electric commerce (O2O field is also growing faster), the largest number of users and trading volume is Alipay, and Alipay relative to the micro-letter payment, the biggest advantage is the security (guarantee), followed by the mobile end of the user's real payment scene mostly occurred in the electric business platform. If Tencent has its own electric-business system, it will be very impressive. Now Ali has been defensive and cut off the micro-letter excuses. The damage to micro-credit payments is great. Even if there is a huge increase in O2O transactions under the future line, micro-credit payments are not the only platform that users can choose from. Because payment is ultimately determined by commodity trading behavior. And Tencent in the field of electrical business, always do a bad job.

Similarly, this problem extends to Ali, the most important thing is not the payment system itself, but whether the continued creation of user satisfaction of the transaction reason and trading scene, payment is only the end of the whole set of actions, not in itself worth looting.

So, for Tencent, instead of tying its main business to micro-letters, it is better to speed up other core business types of mobile Internet, so that other types of business keep up with the micro-letter footsteps. In the mobile phone around the micro-letter this entrance, the formation of "one super strong" product matrix, the real mobile phone side to complete its "one-Stop Life service" transition, rather than all the treasure is on the micro-letter.

A micro-letter can not afford Tencent has the business model of the heavy, also can not complete QQ in the same period to complete the revenue mission; Secondly, the PC Internet will not only disappear, but also play a huge role in the short term, from PCs to mobile phones, Tencent needs to improve its business continuity, Allows users of different business types to be able to complete different usage scenarios within a large Tencent. The traditional enterprise more sought after the concept of O2O for Tencent, such as the PC Internet giants, should do a good job of p2m, that is, from personal computer to mobile phone seamless docking.

This is exactly what I mentioned earlier in the future competition trends and industrial upgrading direction-more and more subdivided, more and more vertical, so that more teams to participate in different projects, from different angles to the user's depth of appeal and industry trends. At this point, Tencent really should learn Baidu in the mobile phone side of the exploration.

Having said so much, we still need to go back to the original point and think about the following three questions: What is a micro-letter? What is Tencent? If there is no micro-letter, Tencent in the mobile internet field is what? I believe the discerning person cares more about the answer to the third question. To tell the truth, Tencent's answer on the third question is not excellent. When we carefully study Tencent in the field of mobile Internet exploration and development, a number of some a handsome cover hundred ugly.

All in all, micro-letter as a Super app, its prospects are completely predictable, but the premise is correct positioning and reasonable rhythm. At present, the industry is called the first mobile Internet ticket of the micro-letter, although it has helped Tencent smooth sailing, but the main types of business in the mobile Internet in the field of commercial exploration, Tencent is also a bit flashy, coupled with the general treacherous, such as the competitors, or cautious.

Otherwise, no one can guarantee that it will not become the mobile Internet in the field of the Titanic.