The next 20 years is the real estate golden age

Yang Lingqiang by reporter from Suzhou

"Crowdfunding is only possible to solve the buyers on the house size, price demand expectations, commodity trading behavior, the integrity of the transaction, the mutual trust of the transaction can not be resolved." This is the Excel Group CEO Zhang Yuan in the "Daily Economic News" Hosted by the Fourth Annual Meeting on Value Real Estate, whether the new Internet model represented by crowdfunding will undermine the public response to the real estate industry.

This view has been recognized by many participants. Although real estate Internet business - community value-added services, is becoming a new blue-sky for the next step in the development of the industry, Tang Xuebin, president of Color Life Services Group, said that it is completely impossible to justify the development cost of a house by charging value-added service fees .

The next 20 years is the real estate golden age

Before this annual meeting, the industry has been worried about the future development space of the real estate industry. A study by Southwestern University of Finance and Economics showed that in the recent three years, the urban household ownership rate has risen sharply from 84.8% in August 2011 to 89% in March 2014, far exceeding that of the United States, Japan, etc. In developed countries, there has been an oversupply of housing market. At present, 24.6% of households have rigid demand, while 13.1% of households have demand for improvement. But the real ability to buy a house, only 18% to 39% of them.

In the first half of this year, the less optimistic performance of the real estate market also aggravated the industry's pessimistic mood.

However, in the eyes of Fan Gang, a famous economist and director of the Institute of National Economy, China's real estate industry still has opportunities for rapid growth.

He said that current housing consumption is still at a very low level. Although the rate of housing ownership in China is indeed high, after all, population migration and urbanization continue. The consumption in China has just begun and the market still has great potential. According to the potential, China's economic growth has been at least 60 years old. To complete the process of industrialization, the process of urbanization has to be completed in 20 to 30 years and has great potential. Of course, the potential to complete the mining is another question.

This view has been the new city holding Ouyang Jie, senior vice president of recognition. In his opinion, due to the rigid demand brought about by the urban reform and the marriage, as well as the large number of non-household population who have not settled down in the cities, the current new housing market will continue to develop for another 20 years without any problems.

Aisin Liu Ai-ming, president of the Group said that although previously the media has always believed that the real estate "Golden Year" has ended, but he did not agree with this view.

Liu Aiming that the end is a fool can make money "idiot era", the next 20 years is the golden age of the development of the industry. As long as you can achieve a high degree of professional knowledge, the real estate industry in the future is still a low probability of loss of the industry.

In addition to the development of commercial real estate, industrial real estate is also an opportunity for future development. Industry-driven will be a mainstream of urban renewal. Only in this way can people balance work and life in one place.

"Real estate is the best, do not run the wind cold again, no matter how to blow do not run, real estate 20 years of gold is the next 20 years." New Gull peng group vice president Li Zhanhong said.

Internet temporarily difficult to subvert the real estate

It is undeniable that the development opportunities in the field of residential real estate have indeed been less and less. Despite the unprecedented opportunities for developers outside of residential real estate, the huge demand is still potential at the moment, and it takes time to truly translate into purchasing power.

This has been recognized by many real estate entrepreneurs. Li Zhanhong pointed out that the real estate industry in the next 20 years is still the best one. However, he put forward "15 no longer" at the venue. One of them is "no longer a single business model. In the future, relying on the development of a single business model will make the business dilemma." "

A report from Southern Metropolis Daily said that when Van Yu, president of Vanke, took his staff to Xiaomi to learn from the company, Lei Jun, Chairman of Xiaomi Technology, directly asked: "Why can not your house sell at half the price?" Lei Jun's reason Yes, with the Internet thinking of "millet mode" to build a house: a group of want to buy a house but also too expensive people to form a partnership to raise money to buy land; according to customer base of housing needs, select a good apartment layout and public comments for comments ; Construction outsourcing to construction enterprises; the land price and reinforced cement and taxes as the sum of house prices, there is no intermediate cost, the price will naturally be reduced. Lei Jun, who is outside the real estate industry, bluntly said that if it realizes real estate in millet mode, it may only take a year or two to achieve 50% market share.

Cai Xuemei, vice president of Shimao Group, has also proposed the use of cloud service platform to collect customer data, and then based on the data of these customers to develop real estate projects.

Safe Good Network CEO Zhuangnuo at this annual meeting to accept the "Daily Economic News" interview with an interview revealed that the safe good Housing Network has launched a similar type of housing crowdfunding similar financial products, the annualized return rate can be To 14%, its biggest role is to lock the purchasing power of those who intend to buyers and demand for developers to achieve production and sales, to ensure that developers can well plan capital investment and recovery cycle, to help companies reduce financial costs. He disclosed that there have been Vanke real estate companies and other well-being of good housing network on a similar house crowdfunding project in-depth negotiations to explore the real estate sales and production of the path.

However, this will theoretically help developers greatly reduce the cost of capital and financial risk approach, the current completion of the real landing, there are many difficulties. As Zhang Yuan said, crowdfunding can not solve the transaction, as well as mutual trust between the parties to the transaction.

Since the current laws and regulations do not support the custom deposit before the manufacturing deposit, developers can not be charged before the construction of the intention of the customer any margin, once the house customization, home buyers who can not fulfill the purchase, all real estate development risks will still be transferred to the development Business body. This makes it difficult to gain widespread use in practice by relying solely on third-party financial institutions to collect buyers' information about assets and demand.

In addition, buyers have a wide range of needs, but also difficult to get uniform satisfaction, which is one of the difficulties of housing crowdfunding mode. Buyers will require more personalized housing development, which developers, it is also a very difficult problem to solve.

However, this does not mean that real estate companies will not be able to use Internet tools to boost their profitability in the short term. At this year's Annual Meeting of Value Real Estate, many real estate companies have already come up with the idea of ​​using Internet to develop community services and increase profitability.

Liu Aiming said that if the future is still only located in the developer, the road will become narrower and narrower, because urban development is no longer based on incremental operations will become very important, the future developers may be converted into operators and service providers. As a result, he positioned Horizons as a "3D City Operator" and a "Holographic Life Service Provider" to provide more value-added services to homebuyers and tenants.

Based on the same perspective, the Company launched "E + Services," a service that includes financial services, commercial property services, business support services and asset management, turning the real estate into a platform from a mere house.

On the basis of this, Ouyang Jie goes further and proposes O2O for community service. He believes that in the past ten years, developers have sold most of the assets have been left, the largest remaining resource is the owner, he is very optimistic about the opportunities in this market.

However, this does not mean that new services can become a major source of revenue for developers in the short term.

Ouyang Jie said that most Internet companies are the first lap flow and then profit, Tencent is a lot of people in the circle after a long time before making a profit. For developers, it takes a long time to convert popularity into sales revenue.

In this context, the concept of "free housing" similar to that proposed by Pan Jun may only be open to the air. Tang Xuebin believes that "free housing" is impossible, because some people's lifetime income may not be enough to buy a house. Although the president of Blu-ray real estate product planning center Gao Changjing did not deny the possibility of a free house in the future, he believes it will take at least 5 years to enter this stage.