The policy of exerting force May PMI Keep walking cattle

With the employee index back below 50%, the optimism about the country's economic prospects is rising as employment becomes the biggest worry for economic recovery.　　The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation announced yesterday that the May manufacturing Purchasing Managers ' Index (PMI), which was jointly compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics, was 53.1%, the third consecutive month exceeding 50% of the "Bear Line".　　Although the figure dropped 0.4% from April, ending a 5-month rally, many economists believe the latest figures are significantly better than expected. CLSA, released on the same day, rose to 51.2% in May, the second consecutive month above 50%.　　Many of the indicators, including cost pressures overseas, narrowed down to a minimum of this recession. PMI as an economic first indicator, if less than 50% indicates the economic recession.　　The index, which has continued to rebound since last December, is one of the most closely watched economic indicators as it accurately predicts a rebound in the economy this year. An upbeat one. Data from China's Logistics and Procurement Federation showed that May PMI fell 0.4% from April.　　But in the opinion of many academics, this month's data are actually quite strong if seasonal factors are deducted.　　According to the information provided by the Societe Generale Capital Operations Centre, the PMI in May was significantly lower than in April due to seasonal factors, even after the cancellation of the 51 holiday, which showed a similar pattern in 2008 years. "According to recorded data, the average of May PMI's fall from April was 4% per cent." But in May this year the data fell only 0.4% from April.　　"Industrial Bank Capital Operations Center research director Lu County said."　　and a number of international investment banks, including Merrill Lynch, said in a midday report yesterday that the data were better than their forecasts this month, indicating a strong rebound in China's economy. What is available is that, also yesterday, CLSA, the International investment Bank, released its own PMI data.　　In May, the Lyon PMI was 51.2%, the second consecutive month higher than 50%, and continued to rise by 1.1% over April. In contrast to the official data survey sample for the large and medium enterprises, CLSA mainly investigates SMEs.　　As a result, the strength of the two data has been seen by many academics as the best proof of China's strong economic rebound. In fact, there was a reversal of the two PMI indices in March, while the CLSA PMI continued to fall below the cut-off point of 50, while the official PMI index continued to climb since last November.　　This once sparked a market challenge.　　Overall, compared to April, the May official PMI index of the various indices did not rise and fall, but the CLSA PMI output and New Order sub-item index is rising. "For the first time, PMI has a solid indication that the policy pull is really working." The export order index, though still below the 50 line, has rebounded to its highest level in 10 months.　　"Fishwick, head of the Securities and Economic Research department in Lyon," commented. CICC macrosThe economic research team released the report that the sub-industry, driven by the stability of the external environment, MAY Export-related industry orders significantly rebound, including apparel, furniture, electronics and communications equipment.　　In addition, steel, cement, petrochemical and other benefits from infrastructure projects investment and price rebound, orders remain high. The continued rise in the price of raw materials, which forms the index of the official PMI data, has fallen back from last month, with the exception of the new export Order index, the finished stock index and the purchase price index.　　But as the PMI figures show, most of these sub-items have only been slightly changed, with no more than 0.5% per cent falling. "I am particularly concerned about buying price indices.　　Citigroup China macroeconomic analyst Pengcheng told the Morning Post reporter. Official figures show that the price index was 53.1% this month, up 1.8% from last month and a six-month rally.　　Pengcheng that the rise in the price of raw materials could almost be seen as a necessary condition for a recovery in economic activity, since only companies tightening production activities will keep raw material prices firm. It is particularly noteworthy that the biggest "bad news" in this month's data is the number of jobs.　　The data fell to 49.9% from 50.3% last month and fell below the 50% line again.　　This may be because many of the companies that benefit from the stimulus plan are not actually confident enough to make them cautious about hiring, Pengcheng said.　　The road to recovery is long but the markets still have different voices. "We have to warn readers not to take the risk of going to the other extreme and interpret the data as a clear signal of strong growth."　　Goldman Sachs indicative in a report released yesterday.　　According to Goldman Sachs, the PMI data alone may not be enough to make a strong judgment on the growth of short-term activity, as there was a marked inconsistency between PMI and industrial value-added data in April.　　At the time, PMI rose for five consecutive months, while industrial growth rose from 8.3% in March to 7.3% per cent.　　Perhaps another more obvious corroboration is that power demand in 1-May was down about 4% per cent from the same period last year, said Zhang, director of the National Energy Agency, at a State Department press conference yesterday.　　While the authorities interpret the decline in electricity demand as an adjustment to industrial structure, many academics have always believed that it is hard to imagine a strong recovery if demand for electricity has been falling. "The trend is good, but not yet detached from the U-shaped bottom run, can only be said to fall back to stability." Reuters quoted an official's latest comment yesterday as saying.