The question before the show: is the mobile communications Empire heading towards dusk?

First, the question before the Palestinian exhibition: is the Mobile communications Empire heading towards dusk?

Before going to Barcelona to participate in the 2015 World Mobile Communications Exhibition (hereinafter referred to as the Bar show), the heart has always had a doubt, that is the mobile communication really towards dusk?

One is the growing sadness of global operators, the stagnant growth of international mainstream operators and the rapid growth of Chinese operators.

Vodafone reported that, starting in the 1 quarter of 2014 (the last quarter of 12/13 's earnings), total operating income continued to decline until the last quarter of 2014, with year-on-year income falling 4.3% per cent.

China Unicom reported a total operating income of 288.6 billion yuan in 2014, down 5% from 2013. Although the earnings of the main business (communications services) revenue 248.4 billion yuan, compared with 2013 growth of 0.9%, relatively stable. But compared with the revenue growth of 13.6% in 2013, it fell from the sky to the ground.

The days of China's move are also not easy, with 2014 per cent of the total revenue from communications services down 1.5%. Profits fell 10.2% from a year earlier, with a three-quarter decline of 9.7% per cent, indicating a four-quarter profit decline.

One is the impact of mobile internet waves, the growth of traffic can only make up for voice, SMS decline (or even can not completely make up), the operator's pipeline trend is more obvious, see the direction of the future.

Perhaps for the developed countries in Europe and the United States, in the antitrust, split restructuring operators, market access and virtual operation of the background has been competitors everywhere, the pipeline has long been very serious. Even Japan's NTT DoCoMo, which has deeply influenced and led the development of the mobile internet industry, has been losing its way under the mobile Internet of Smart terminals. China Mobile has been learning to imitate DoCoMo, under the impact of various types of apps, all kinds of own value-added services are struggling to deal with.

Operator's cost rigidity, the income growth slows down or falls to the profit directly creates the huge pressure. Take China Mobile, for example, if revenues fall by 10%, directly leading to a drop in profits of nearly 60%. When the two-digit income increases, it is possible to spend a huge amount of money, and when income growth stagnates, cutting spending is an unavoidable option in order to ensure a smooth profit, which is why marketing costs fell by nearly 20% in 2014 and then continued to fall by 20% in 2015. International operators do the same, or do it more ruthlessly, such as reducing the scope of business, such as layoffs.

In this context, the operator-led bar show us what kind of enlightenment?

Second, the BA Zhan impression: Move for first place innovation frontier

From the publicity materials can be seen, the number of exhibitors and the number of enterprises in the annual high, 2011 years only 60,000 people, 2014 has reached 86,000 people, it is said that 2015 from China's manufacturers up to 150, the number of million, in addition to Huawei, ZTE, like Lenovo, Cool Pie, Native language and other manufacturers have used the opportunity to display their latest achievements.

From the scene of the hot atmosphere can also feel that for Europe, this is not just the mobile communications Congress, in fact, the European mobile communications and Internet Conference. In addition to operators, equipment vendors, terminals, SIM card manufacturers, such as traditional value chain participants, such as Intel, IBM, Microsoft, Vinware and other software and systems solutions vendors, as well as Google (European branch), Line (Europe and the United States Branch) and other Internet applications manufacturers, have joined the feast.

Whether it is the development of mobile wearable equipment, or the development of home internet and car networking, the mobile communication revolution is driving the world's major technological breakthroughs, standing in the global industrial comparison perspective, mobility is shaking the earth to change our lives, and from the consumer sector deeply into the industry. Starting with a mobile terminal at the end of 1981, it took almost 34 years to implement the mobile is Everyone in many parts of the country and to move quickly to the mobile is modifiable. According to the point of view of the interconnection of all things, the current connection to the Internet is less than 1% of all items, connectivity requirements still exist a huge gap.

China Mobile Shangdong has said in a public speech that a few years ago in the Ministry of Industry estimates, mobile communications led the industrial chain to GDP growth over the car. Similar estimates have been made abroad that the contribution of mobile communications to global GDP is rising. As in 2014, the mobile industry's contribution to global GDP was 4%, and 2015 would reach 4.2%.

Mobile first is the core idea that IBM is promoting, and it is the true portrayal of the development of the industry. From this point of view, as the theme of the exhibition, "The Edge of innovation," as a catalyst for mobile technology, mobile communications business in any case can not use the word "Twilight" to evaluate.

So why is it that operators around the world are having a hard time?

Third, the operator's problem: The business IP and the choice of connectivity to create a de facto fierce competition

What do mobile operators do? What should I do? This question has not been asked in the past. Because it clearly contains the following content. Licensed operating licences, engineered organizational structures, retail/distribution channels, billing engines, customer service, branding, wholesale transactions (settlement transactions between operators), and of course, operators explore new areas such as advertising, digital content, Internet of things, etc.

But if you ask a typical user operator what it is, he will quickly give a fundamental answer. A carrier is a company that offers a paid wireless connection.

For the better part of the past, competition has been largely confined to the members of the GSMA Association. According to GSMA's statistics, around 800 major mobile telecommunications operators worldwide, according to the population distribution of about 10 million people a carrier. This is a fairytale industrial environment, according to the operator's mergers and acquisitions trend, the number is falling, the number of people covered by each operator is still growing.

However, when we move the provider of wireless connections away from the operator, we find that the operators are not the only ones who can provide wireless connectivity.

First, the virtual operator's access to accelerate the market competition, for customers to connect the choice of services more, and the whole business operation makes the original fixed-line broadband operators ambitious into the mobile business. Second, the OTT IP connection mode will be a per-minute billing mode into a byte billing, based on the added value of bytes is gone. Finally, the future of the competition really sharp is the various types of WiFi service providers, WiFi priority has been increasingly embraced by large players, as Google in the U.S. wireless communications market, on the one hand with two operators to wholesale traffic, on the one hand with its own free WiFi combined. Domestic Huawei a mobile phone 2014 years free to use the operator WIFI1000 million hours is a similar way.

These free WiFi providers do not have the traditional network, investment, business baggage, fully complementary to their current business, the connection as a means of communication with the end user, and the relationship between users than the operator to do better. And because it is free and can be connected when needed, it can be tolerated even if there are flaws in range selection or rate.

Pipeline (business IP) and the diversity of pipeline selection (the diversity of connectivity choices) are the root cause of the operators ' predicament.

Iv. the outlet of the operators

Operators are struggling to find a third curve to cope with the decline in the value of plumbing. However, as an Internet player, the huge investment risk may be more difficult to bear than the existing institutional mechanism. In exploring the third curve, operators need to focus on ensuring their core competencies are not violated, such as the absolute advantages of connectivity, such as the use of SIM cards and the ability to open them. These core competencies are the key to determining the future success or failure of the operator.

(i) Ensuring absolute dominance in the area of connectivity

Here are two meanings, one is to use more convenient connection, and the other is to lower the cost of connection. There is no doubt that the boutique 4G network can provide a higher bandwidth and wider coverage of the wireless connection service, while the unit data flow cost is cheaper. It is estimated that the 2014 unit flow cost is probably three years ago 1/3 (the rate of decline is greater), or lower.

The operator's multiple networks have not become the advantage of the connection, but become a disadvantage. The frequent interoperation of multiple networks affects the customer's business experience, and the network usage is uneven, which brings waste of resources. For example, China Mobile, the four-net (2G 3G 4G WIFI) will coexist for a long time, if the integration experience can not be achieved, it will bring experience problems, while causing waste of resources. For example, China Mobile's WLAN and Unicom, Telecom 3G Network, basically become the victim of 4G.

It should be said that in the integration of fees and certification, operators do a lot of work, with the Chinese mobile cmcc-web and CMCC client separate authentication, is to facilitate the end user access to the WLAN via the client an improvement. If China Mobile is able to achieve the rate of convergence (a form of integration) of WLAN 4G (or other networks) implemented by customers in WLAN areas, it is clearly more likely to promote the use of idle WLAN networks, rather than the current, wholesale sales to Huawei and Ping An with a wide range of user groups.

In addition to the integration of the network, reduce the roaming settlement fee is the operator to establish connectivity advantages. Mobile users roaming to Spain, roaming charges for each 3mb/6 yuan (RMB), such a tariff structure to force customers, or reduce the use of traffic, or handle a local card (I personally handled a local orange SIM card, dedicated to the Internet terminal). As the Vodafone board Chairman said in his speech, innovation should focus on the needs of customers, such as the general need for customers "affordable roaming", and "EU Roam like Home" as an example, other countries users roaming to Europe from € 3 MB into 3 euros/ Days (including short MMS and data flow). Clearly this is a fee scheme to promote roaming, although there is room for further adjustment. Adjusting roaming settlements is a powerful weapon for operators to enhance their competitiveness with other connectivity options, such as WiFi.

For car networking applications, flexible billing has become a universal demand, in fact, for many wearable equipment applications exist. is a joint venture car company in the car network in charge of communication, the other side mentioned a core demand, for the medium and low car, do not need a depot in advance for users to buy a few years of traffic packets, and then loaded in the price, free to provide users. They want the customer's own traffic part (the lowest level of the vehicle and the manufacturers of information communication), according to the user paid the logic of the operation, that is, reduce sales price, in the use of the associated driver's mobile phone number for certification billing.

In fact, this is a simple flexible billing requirements, but also a typical application scenario for the separation of fees and charges, but not all operators can quickly achieve.

Perhaps, not waiting for operators to be ready, after the show, for the depot, the more preferred to write SIM card solutions. That is, the depot does not have to determine which operator (SIM card) in advance, but to select a universal writable SIM card, customers use the time (via Bluetooth) to associate their mobile phone, and with the help of mobile communication channel (traffic), remote write SIM card. This may be the ultimate solution to lower cost prices and increase user coverage (without limiting which operators).

(b) running the final SIM card position

Many years ago, mobile phone number became the exclusive position of the operator, we relish the phone number is the mailbox number (139 mailbox), mobile phone number is the chat number (fly a letter), unfortunately, the operator created the opportunity, but did not hold the position. Mobile phone number has been used in all of the app and mailbox, although not unique, but it is a key customer identity related identification signs. Because based on the mobile phone's SMS verification can be more convenient and quick to associate the phone number with the registered account, and as long as the app is sticky enough, the customer actively input mobile phone number and can not become the threshold of application. Now the position is moved to the SIM card. This is the most important carrier that the operator contacts with the customer, and also is the entity.

Although China Mobile provides the NFC SIM card, and provides the bus subway and other card functions on the SIM card, it also gradually integrates some applications of the PU issue joint card. But the overall size of the business has not been a rapid breakthrough, and has not risen to the height of corporate strategy to treat.

In this keynote, Digital identity (Digital identity authentication) has become an important topic. Surveys show that each intelligent terminal installs 26 apps, averaging at least 6-8 password per user. The numerous login log out becomes the application obstacle, finally for the convenience of the user, some applications are gradually simplified, such as simplifying to a gesture, or always online (no login). This damages both safety and battery.

Although domestic Internet applications (such as QQ and Weibo), through open user authentication, will be able to extend the ability to sign in to other apps, but still can not solve many areas (especially with payment-related) multiple password multi-user phenomenon. For the user, eventually all applications share a password, or dynamic SMS password authentication. Dynamic SMS passwords for Android terminals, nor is it absolutely safe, because any installed app program, have the ability to replace customers receive and send text messages. When more and more important applications are carried on the mobile phone, convenience and security become unavoidable dilemma.

Unified in a widely used Internet account, or eye movement recognition (eyeprint) or facial scanning can be a security option for authentication. However, from the ease of application and accessibility, SIM card certification may be a priority option. Users only need to remember the SIM card password on the line, in the app application, select SIM card authentication, the system allows users to enter the SIM card password, the user's mobile phone number (or related identity) automatically sent to the app, do not need to fill in all kinds of registration materials. Internet applications welcome rather than repel, and they are concerned about how many users can support such authentication methods. Program implementation needs the support of the terminal and SIM card vendors, the technical conditions are more mature, for operators, this is a strategic determination problem.

Outflows has always been an important issue for operators, operators have always attributed the problem to the marketing strategy, because the marketing strategy is closely related to the big One (transition short-term incentive), but the problem of big out of the hands of no strategy. Increasing the function and application of SIM card is the basic way to solve the big problem.

(iii) Open and operational capacity

The so-called ability, should be software, virtualization business or function. Do operators provide end-to-end application solutions, or do they provide only capabilities? European and American operators are affected by antitrust and virtual operator competition, and rarely take full control of the value chain and provide end-to-end solutions. Therefore, the ability to open to the European and American operators, has long been a common strategic move.

Operators in Asia, such as China Mobile, Japan DoCoMo and South Korea, tend to provide end-to-end solutions. For the personal business, reading, games, music and other digital content application is the carrier forward billing ability in the value chain extension, for the group business, End-to-end ICT projects and applications is the communication capability in the value chain extension.

The former operator's position is "editor, distributor", in fact, is a distribution channel, it is relatively easy to do. The latter, the carrier's status is "integrator", because the operator does not have strong it capabilities, usually need third-party it integration company support, so for the group business of ICT projects, operators are basically a loss to make a yell. Operator Group business income mainly from "Green Line, IDC, voice and SMS", ICT income accounted for perhaps less than 10%.

At home, Unicom and China Telecom have gone further in their ability to open up. One of the IT vendors in the exhibition on the ability to open platform application is the case of Unicom. For example, the biggest source of income is the "app billing ability." "App Billing Ability" is open generation billing, users in the use of app need to pay, you can choose to "use carrier mobile phone number", after the selection through dynamic SMS password verification, the completion of the payment process. Second, the use of more ability "template SMS" (also known as fixed format and content SMS, application can only adjust individual parameters) and "url long address conversion" (Sina Weibo on the Web page link address is actually the converted short address).

Large data opening is another form of ability to open, but also through the API interface for data query and real-time call. China Telecom Axis Star "number status query" is one of the simple data capacity open. The central bank's January 2015 licensing test will greatly promote the data opening and cooperation among the various systems, and the operators ' data opening cooperation is also the focus of the parties.

Let professional people do professional things to the customer and the market has a positive effect, the operator open capacity will undoubtedly become a trend, because the open ability helps distinguish business responsibility boundaries, reduce complaints, easy to manage, and help third party flexible innovation, these are the end to end solutions are missing. Opening and operating capacity is the focus of future operators ' innovation and the future of income generation.