The rapid decline in M1 growth suggests that economic activity is weakening

>>> Click to view SINA Financial macro Data Center ⊙ reporter Miaoyan 0 Editor Heng Road, 11th, the central bank released data shows that July currency liquidity situation has eased, the overall monetary growth continues to slow. Among them, the broad currency (M2) growth rate fell to 17.6%, the lowest value in 19 months. The figure is very close to the 17% growth target set at the start of the year, and the fastest 3-quarter M2 is expected to be ahead of schedule at the start of the year. At the same time, the narrow currency (M1) growth rate fell to 22.9%, also created 13 months since the lowest value.　　The inverted scissors of M1 and M2 narrowed to 5.3%, the lowest value for a month since this year. The rapid decline in M1 growth suggests that economic dynamism is weakening to some extent. In addition, the month of enterprise deposits also appeared a sharp decline in trend. The data showed that the increase in deposits in July had fallen to $160.9 billion, the lowest value since October 2007. Among them, the enterprise deposit drops 184.5 billion yuan.　　After comparing the data of recent years, the reporter found that July is often the lowest point of the growth of the enterprise deposits in the year, the highest points of the financial deposit, which may be related to the enterprises ' concentrated tax and so on, not the enterprise will use the funds to expand production, nor can it explain the vigor of the Recently, some research institutions believe that the renminbi revaluation expectations have shifted. The flow of funds in recent months has indeed been similar. Foreign-exchange loans were reduced by $5.6 billion trillion in July, influenced by weaker-than-expected renminbi appreciation. This is the largest one-month decline since January 2009. Meanwhile, it has been negative for the 3rd consecutive month since May this year.　　July foreign exchange deposits also reduced by 1.6 billion dollars. Previous sources said that the July foreign exchange accounted for the size of 5, 6 two months to a certain degree of increase. Guotai macro analyst Hu pointed out that the July trade surplus growth is relatively fast, which may be the cause of the increase in foreign exchange accounts.　　According to Guotai analysts, the higher trade surplus in the second half will be sustained, which will also be an important factor in supporting the future growth of foreign exchange accounts. As a result, while the money supply has fallen steadily, the size of the foreign Exchange account will not reproduce the big increase at the beginning of the year, but the future liquidity situation will not be too tight because foreign exchange accounts can increase the money supply through the monetary multiplier effect. However, some research institutes have proposed a possible downward adjustment in the reserve requirement ratio in the year.