The restrictive factors of new energy vehicles ' borrowing force breakthrough are still obvious

According to the latest data from the Ministry of Industry, October this year, China's new energy vehicles produced 5,685 vehicles, the year-on-year growth of nearly 24 times times. One of the pure electric passenger car production 2,294, year-on-year growth of nearly 10 times times, plug-in hybrid passenger car production 2,141; pure electric commercial vehicle production 475, year-on-year growth of nearly 36 times times, plug-in hybrid commercial vehicle production of 775 vehicles.

2014 1 ~ October, China's new energy vehicles cumulative production of 47,000 units, year-on-year growth of nearly 5 times times. One of the pure electric passenger car production 22200, an increase of 7 times times, plug-in hybrid passenger car production 11100, year-on-year growth of 20 times times, fuel cell passenger car production 4, pure electric commercial vehicle production 5,723, year-on-year growth of 133%, plug-in hybrid commercial vehicle production 7,972 vehicles, Rose 181%.

Behind the exploding data curve, the auto industry has realised that the year of new energy vehicles has been launched in 2014 with the power of policy. However, in the joy of Carnival, the development of the domestic new energy vehicle market remains a hidden concern. The blind construction caused by capacity expansion and the hollowing out of industry have become the focus of concern in the industry.

Rapid Market Expansion

Since September 16 last year, the Ministry of Industry and other four ministries and departments issued a joint "on the promotion of new energy vehicles to promote the implementation of the Notice" (hereinafter referred to as "notice"), the national new round of new Energy Vehicle promotion Plan officially launched. Subsequently, the relevant State departments have issued two batches of new energy vehicles to promote the application of the city list, into the pilot city reached 100.

Not only that, July 13, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and other five departments announced the "government agencies and public institutions to buy new energy vehicles Implementation Plan", August 6, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and other issued "on the exemption of new energy vehicles vehicle Purchase Tax bulletin"; List of new energy vehicle models exempted from vehicle purchase tax (first batch); October 29, the Ministry of Industry issued a "vehicle purchase tax exemption of new Energy Vehicle models directory (second batch)." Encouraging the introduction of the policy, means that China's new energy industry first in the policy level into the gold development period.

It is in this context that the subsidies for new energy vehicles in various places have been released. According to statistics, up to now, there are more than 30 provinces and cities of New Energy Vehicle Promotion program landing. Shanghai, the purchase of new energy vehicles, not only will enjoy the central, local and part of the county financial subsidies, will also be more than 70,000 yuan worth of free Shanghai card, Beijing is the case, the purchase of new energy vehicles, can obtain the license-free, while in Shenzhen, local subsidies and central subsidy for 1:1 of the situation. In addition, August 25, Xi ' an issued a package of preferential policies for new energy vehicles, in addition to the implementation of the 14 national requirements of the support policy, but also designated 18 policies and 3 safeguard measures; September 24, Taiyuan City launched new energy vehicles to promote the implementation of the program, on the basis of national and provincial subsidies, For the pure electric passenger car each additional subsidy 20,000 yuan, and fuel vehicles to swap pure electric vehicles will be awarded 3000 yuan again; October 9, the Hunan provincial government announced that, in addition to expanding the scope of subsidies, for the region also from the original Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan model urban agglomeration increased 11 city state subsidies; October 14, the Hangzhou municipal government network also announced the Hangzhou New energy vehicles to promote the application of financial assistance interim measures, the pure electric passenger car can receive 30,000 yuan subsidy, plug-in (including add program) hybrid vehicle grant 20,000 yuan.

With the introduction of the relevant dividend, the new energy vehicle market appears to explode, in addition to the above sales volume growth, in the implementation of subsidy policy in the cities and regions, a single area to promote the volume has also been good performance. In Shanghai, for example, data from the Shanghai Municipal Commission showed that last year to September this year, Shanghai has promoted a total of 4,246 new energy vehicles, including 3,089 private users, accounting for more than 70%, and foreign brand sales of about 2,500 vehicles, accounting for more than 50%. According to BYD data, its plug-in hybrid Model Qin September sales of 1702 vehicles, in Shanghai, the number of cards reached 1212 vehicles.

The constraints remain apparent

The overall trend is good, but it does not mean that new energy vehicles are fully accepted by consumers. In fact, in a sense, Shanghai in the new energy vehicles to promote the effect of obvious, to a large extent due to its perfect subsidy policy. According to the Shanghai subsidy policy, the maximum subsidy for the purchase of pure electric vehicles can reach 40,000 yuan, and the subsidy of plug-in hybrid model is 30,000 yuan. At the same time, in areas including Jiading, Minhang and Pudong, the regional policy will give new energy vehicles 15,000 yuan ~2 million of subsidies. In addition, the most important is the free Shanghai licensing, for example, Jianghuai and IEV4 in Shanghai after deducting subsidies for the price of only 74,800 yuan, and this price is still less than a price of a Shanghai card.

Therefore, in the view of the industry, if there is no additional conditions to join, the promotion of new energy vehicles will be caught in the difficulties. The main reasons include the following aspects, the first is the high cost, such as BYD E6 can enjoy 114,000 yuan subsidy, remove the subsidy after the price of 140,000 ~25 million, the A00 grade pure electric vehicles E50 subsidies after the price of more than 120,000 yuan, the same level of fuel vehicle prices, still lack of competitive advantage. In addition, in the sales performance of the new energy vehicles, in addition to the electric bus, the more mainstream is plug-in hybrid rather than pure electric vehicles, it shows that the new energy vehicles to the infrastructure dependence remains unresolved.

Some industry insiders say now the subsidy policy can only be short-term effect, should fundamentally solve the new energy vehicle technology upgrading and ancillary facilities construction problems, and further break the local protection of the market segmentation, so that new energy vehicles have a good technology, better than the traditional fuel vehicle performance, and charging piles and other ancillary facilities to keep pace with , consumers without worries, new energy vehicles will naturally be recognized.

Multiple worries in the industry

Although the factors restricting the new energy vehicles are still very obvious, in the face of the temptation of government incentives, car companies are also speeding up the introduction of new cars and expansion of capacity. According to the reporter of the first financial daily, in the first batch of new energy vehicles to be exempted from the purchase tax list, the number of passenger cars is only 17, but with the second batch of new energy-free vehicles released from the list, this figure rose to 28, including Beijing Automobile, Beijing Hyundai, North Automobile Futian, Dongfeng, Dongfeng Yue up to Asia, Brilliance BMW and many other models are shortlisted. At the same time, car companies on the new energy vehicle sales of high expectations are also growing. Not long ago, Chery Motor released its pure electric vehicle Chery EQ, and said that by 2020, its sales will reach 100,000 vehicles, including some low-speed electric vehicle manufacturers, are also beginning to joint ventures in the production of pure electric vehicles.

Capacity to leapfrog not only the entire vehicle production enterprises, it is understood that the new energy vehicle industry chain also appeared a large investment situation, especially in the new Energy car battery field, the previous focus on 3C and electronic products, battery manufacturers have made a statement will produce automotive power batteries.

While it is not a bad thing to expect an increase in the upstream and downstream investment in the new energy vehicle-driven industrial chain, it appears to the industry that the large expansion of capacity while the acceptance has not been improved will most likely result in overcapacity, resulting in a waste of resources. This has been a cautionary tale in the previous micro-vehicle market. In addition, in the new Energy vehicle manufacturing and research and development, compared with foreign countries, there is still a large gap, such as the core technology in the power battery and the lack of parts of the core parts of the manufacturing, are currently facing the new energy automotive industry problems.

To this end, China Automotive Industry Association, executive vice President Dongyan worried that the investment of new Energy automobile and its related industry chain is more difficult than the traditional automobile industry, enterprises and local governments should be cautious, should consider from the whole, avoid duplication of construction, at the same time from the management, environmental protection and other aspects of strict control, improve the new Energy vehicle technology access threshold, Eliminate the occurrence of overcapacity.