The robot industry is a bubble: part of the project only for the circle of national money

In a suit, leather shoes polished shiny, just retired soon Suchong once as Shanghai Pass Automation Technology Development Co., Ltd. chairman, he spoke words to speed, but forceful. I do not know when the more than 40-year-old robot industry veteran, more and more is not affected by this hot industry "to see."

January 15, the 2015 China Servo and motion control industrial Robot Entrepreneur Summit Forum, the first appearance of the Suchong, a stage to the participants poured a basin of cold water: China's robot market is like fishing catch shrimp, you are not ready, fishing came, simply can't catch up.

More people disagree. They prefer to believe that as long as you plunge into this industry, there is a chance to share a piece, because from the data, everything is so beautiful: In the past 5 years, the Chinese robot market with an average annual growth rate of 36%, 2013 year sales climbed to 36560 units, the year-on-year growth of 60%, become the world's first robot power, It is also the fastest growing market for robots in the world.

The more "prosperity", the more scared. Suchong in the "First financial daily" reporter interviewed, said, if the industry does not have a sober understanding, may jump into a dead one, "the robot to develop, the key is the application, technical application matching did not keep up, created to sell to whom?" ”

Crazy Robot

"The situation now is that neither the government nor the enterprise seems to be in a position to keep up with robots," he said. Referring to the current robotics industry, a representative of the conference said to our correspondent.

Harbin Institute of Technology (hereinafter called "hit"), the Deputy director of Robotics Li Ruifeng, is in this upsurge. Recently, almost every day to receive business representatives from across the country and research institutions, a dial, so that he did not have time to rest. These enterprises look forward to, through and hit the "Climbing relationship", can be launched as soon as possible robot project.

Let the outside world rely on, it is hit in the robot research and development field leading position. Last November, Heilongjiang Province began to draft robot industry development planning, with hit, Vire and other institutions of higher learning based in Harbin, will be expected to become an important domestic robot industry base.

January 6, hit robot group opened in Harbin. The industrial group, established by hit, Heilongjiang provincial government and Harbin Municipal government, will provide unique technology, core parts, leading products and complete industry technology solutions in the future in the direction of industrial robots and other nine industries.

Similar actions are being carried out in other provinces.

Hkust Intelligence (300222.SZ) January 7 external Disclosure, the company's wholly-owned subsidiary Yong electromechanical plans to own funds in Hefei to invest in the establishment of Hefei robotics company, registered capital of 10 million. This is in response to Hefei vigorously support the industrial layout of the robot industry, the company is ready to use with the Chinese University of Science and Technology, Hefei University of cooperation, to seize the opportunity to seize the robot industry.

2014 by the industry known as "the first year of robotics," the annual lively, enterprises through different ways to enter the robot industry is almost crazy. According to incomplete statistics, as at the end of 2014, more than 70 listed companies to acquire or invest in robotics, intelligent automation projects, and the number of Chinese robot-related enterprises even more than 4,000.

"Robots are too hot, especially since last September, as there were national robotics forums for 3 weeks in a row last December, and the relevant seminars were not counted," he said. said the representative of the participating enterprises.

Feng Jinzhong, general manager of China Transmission network, said the rise in human costs was the fundamental factor in the demand for robots.

"2000 ~2012 years, the domestic manufacturing workers wage composite growth rate of 13.6%, and nearly three years, the trend of accelerated increase in the eastern provinces, such as Guangdong, Zhejiang and other manufacturing-intensive areas is the phenomenon of labor shortage." This is similar to the 60-80 years in Japan in the last century, they launched a robot in the middle of the 70 to replace the artificial upsurge. ”

In Li Ruifeng's view, robots instead of artificial, mainly solve three levels of problems, that is, people do not (special robot), people do not good (cars and other high-end areas) and people do not want to do (domestic general manufacturing), "Now to the people do not want to dry stage, need to use a large number of robots."

Huge domestic manufacturing capacity, strong automation needs, will continue to promote the robot industry continued to hot. According to Li Ruifeng estimate, by 2020, the domestic robot system integration market will reach 200 billion yuan, of which the general manufacturing 140 billion yuan, the auto industry 60 billion yuan, the next 5 years, the general manufacturing automation demand will grow rapidly, market demand will obviously surpass the auto industry, market size will reach 70%.

Go into the wrong area?

In Suchong's view, the weight of the robot industry's cake is clearly exaggerated.

"It looks like this cake is big, but in fact the robot is only suitable for special areas, such as high-risk, highly polluting operations and heavy lifting," he said. ”

It is understood that China's current robotics industry, is under the government-driven, such as to accelerate the popularization of industrial robots, some local governments to the manufacturing enterprises to apply industrial robots and smart equipment are subsidized. Taking Liuzhou in Guangxi Province as an example, a preliminary plan for the development and purchase of robots can be subsidized by 20%~30% per set of investment.

Suchong said that the Chinese robot level is still in the initial stage of the prototype. "It's not that you can't do it, but you know where it's going to be, not every field has to replace people with robots." ”

"People do not have the high precision of the robot, but there is adaptability, in some areas, so that robots can be very complex, to add a lot of sensors, measuring strength, only the information is large enough to digital, but many areas of application, can not be mathematical modeling." A foreign robot equipment provider to explain to our correspondent.

For example, engaged in angel yeast production, if the use of high-precision temperature control, but to make the yeast quality is not high, because it is life, must be controlled by people to complete.

What worries Suchong is not just the "substitution" of robots, but how they are applied.

"The real gap at home and abroad is not in the robot ontology, the robot, this is only completed One-third not to, there are a lot of application development did not do, and the different industries of the special technology is different." Take welding as an example, there are welding, arc welding several, each processing parts are different, each technology application matching has not followed? ”

But the reality is that the current domestic robot, may not be able to put into use, "like a toy, form is a robot, but the production line technology has not been resolved, end users still have stability problems, and now made the robot, 100 units have 100 appearance, how to achieve stability?" ”

Suchong suggests that governments and businesses should devote their energy to supporting applications, rather than doing so much for corporate subsidies.

Chao (alias) is another person who remains sober. Years of experience as a foreign robot company, let him see the development of the domestic robot industry "loophole": many enterprises on the robot project, in fact, in disguise to circle the country's money, these people will not put their minds on industrial development.

"The robotics industry is very hot, but the real robots are not many, many of them are robots, and most of them are not robots." "Siasun Robot Automation Co., Ltd. Central Research Institute Dean Xu Fang to this reporter introduced."

He found that a large part of the enterprise into the robot industry is running the state subsidies, the reality is that Zhejiang "machine substitution" plan for two or three years but difficult to fall; Foxconn's million-robot program is hard to do because the technology is not enough to support it.

"Now, everybody is still robbing window period." State subsidies are certainly not open-ended. Chao said, now the robot industry has begun to walk into the old road of wind power, photovoltaic and so on, "enterprises operating without profit, if there is no sustained funding, the state subsidy alone, it is impossible to survive." Now the prototype of the enterprise has not finished, including the wind, PE is still in a set of money, such as overdraft is very bad, these people will be withdrawn.

What worries Suchong most is that the big opportunity for the robotics industry may turn into an industrial bubble.

(Responsible editor: Mengyishan)