The second half of the bond issue will significantly speed up the fiscal deficit or break the budget

The Treasury issued its Treasury bond issuance plan for the third quarter of 2009 yesterday. According to the announcement, the Treasury will issue 24 bonds in the third quarter of this year, flat in the second quarter. But it is noteworthy that the surge in the second quarter of discounted government debt will be reduced in the three quarter, while the key period of the issuance of Treasury bonds than the size of the plan at the beginning of the increase.　　Market participants pointed out that this can be seen as a financial deficit may be a breakthrough in the budget signal, the second half of the debt in the issuance of the speed or circulation will be significantly accelerated. The announcement showed that the 24 bonds included 3-month (voucher) savings bonds, which were distributed in the 3 months of the third quarter respectively. and the accounting-type interest-bearing bond plan issue 12, compared to the second quarter increase 2 period, the period from 1 to 20 years, the tender date is basically in Wednesday.　　In addition, in the second quarter of the high-frequency issuance of bookkeeping discount government debt, the planned issue period from the two quarter of the 11 period to 9 period, the tender date is Friday. In contrast to the announcement of Treasury bonds announced earlier this year, the latest issue of the third-quarter Treasury bond issuance program in the key period of 3 more than the beginning of the year, respectively, 5-year increase of 2, 7-year increase of 1. In accordance with the average distribution size of $20.03 trillion per dollar, the issue is increased by 60.09 trillion yuan.　　At the same time, the issue of long-term Treasury bonds in the next three months to maintain a higher level of 2-3. Market analysts said that due to the expiration of the year, and from historical data, the annual issuance period of not more than 5 period, only the second quarter of this year has issued 11, combined with the third-quarter plan to issue 9, the first three quarters discount bonds will issue 20 period, The reduction in the third quarter discount bond issuance has limited impact on the market. On the contrary, the issue of key-term bonds is worth the market attention.　　Guotai, a fixed-income analyst, Lin Chaohui, said that while the increase in the size of government debt is within the budget, it could be seen as a sign that the fiscal deficit is likely to break through the budget this year. At the beginning of the year, China's central budget deficit of 750 billion yuan, plus the Ministry of Finance agency issued 200 billion yuan local government debt, the national budget deficit of 950 billion yuan. According to this figure, many institutions forecast, including local government debt 200 billion of the size of the issue, this year's national debt issuance will be more than 1.5 trillion yuan.　　If the fiscal deficit exceeds that level throughout the year, it would mean a corresponding increase in the size of the bond issue to fill the gap. For the ensuing pressure on the bond supply, the Shanghai stock Market index of the 9th consecutive trading day fell yesterday, reflecting a certain cautious mentality. But a big-line trader interviewed by reporters still expressed a more optimistic attitude. He pointed out that the market for this year's increase in the supply of Treasury bonds early expectations, the majority of institutions now calculate the second half of the first half of the Treasury bond issuance will be twice times, or even more, the third quarter of the key period of debt issuance confirmed this expectation, but most of the view that the Fund should At present, although the new IPO in the short term focus on capital,But a series of moves from the central bank's open market last week showed that the central bank is likely to continue to escort the market in order to maintain moderate liquidity. Moreover, the reserve ratio also has a big reduction in space, the central bank can be out of the "card" there are many.