The second quarter of important economic data will be announced this week the recovery is expected to be established

Xiangjian Bonsecours Experts believe that the current fiscal policy and monetary policy is not likely to turn left or right to go?　　On the one hand, macro-economy is in a key period of stabilization, on the other hand, asset price soaring and inflation risk emerge, macro-control again face dilemma.　　This week, the National Bureau of Statistics will disclose the two-quarter GDP growth and CPI and other important data, and the State Council, the NPC Financial Committee will convene a half year of economic situation analysis meeting.　　Some experts believe that the current fiscal policy and monetary policy shift is unlikely, but structural adjustment policies should be adopted to guard against inflation expectations and soaring asset prices, in a situation where recovery fundamentals remain shaky.　　The rebound continued in the second quarter thanks to strong domestic consumption and investment demand, with industry insiders thinking the two-quarter growth rate will continue to rebound on a quarterly basis. Yu Bin, Minister of Macroeconomics at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said in an interview with CBN reporters that from the current situation, the trend of economic recovery is becoming clearer, laying a good foundation for achieving 8% growth in the whole year, which is expected to increase GDP by about 2% in the two quarter, which is about 8%,　　GDP growth will reach more than 7% in the first half. Yu Bin said that 4 trillion of investment led to rapid expansion of domestic demand to compensate for the decline in external demand is the most central factor of economic recovery.　　Previously popular private investment has rebounded better than expected, especially in the real estate and auto industry production and investment growth trend is good.　　CITIC Investment analyst Xiamingren to CBN reporters, from May power generation, PMI and other data to judge, the two-quarter GDP is expected to be a big increase, to 7.7%.　　Notably, exports, which had fallen sharply in the troika of investment and consumption exports, have also narrowed.　　Data from the general administration of Customs on the afternoon of July 10 showed that China's import and export value of 182.57 billion U.S. dollars in June, down 17.7% year-on-year, of which exports fell 21.4% Year-on-year, imports fell 13.2%. Compared with May, the total value of imports and exports narrowed by 8.2%, export narrowed by 5% and imports narrowed by 12%.　　Decreased by 7%, 0.5% and 14.8%, respectively, from the cumulative decline of January-May.　　Xiamingren that the first half of the economic growth is mainly driven by investment and consumption, May consumption and investment are relatively high position, the June investment and consumption is expected to again become the support of economic growth, although the June release of import and export data is still hovering in the lower, but the decline has improved.　　Yu Bin also believes that, although our exports have been greatly affected by the economic crisis, but there are two points to note: First, the decline in the amount of physical exports is lower than the value of the decline, that is, the export capacity of enterprises to be protected; second, the main international market share does not fall, which will be very important for the future recovery of foreign trade.　　The other side of the coin that warms the uncertainty is that the recovery base is still shaky. General State CouncilWen Jiabao 7th and 9th held a symposium, said that the economic recovery must see the foundation is not stable, external demand for a serious contraction of the situation is still continuing, some industries, some enterprises production and operation is still more difficult. Yu Bin that, on the one hand, the rapid rebound after a sharp economic decline, many industries and enterprises are not in place to adjust.　　On the other hand, the rebound in production and investment is mainly concentrated in the government's large-scale stimulus-related industries, the international market is still relatively depressed, export-oriented regions and enterprises, the pace of recovery is relatively slow and other issues are more prominent. Yu Bin said the two adjustments had taken 6 and 7 years respectively, and the economy peaked in the two quarter of 2007, and it took more than a year for the economy to rebound.　　Mainly because this policy is very strong, executive force and targeted, so the adjustment is not sufficient.　　Xiamingren also believes that high investment in the future will face some negative impact, first of all, the investment is mainly in the non-economic sector, in theory, the investment efficiency is relatively low; second, China has been faced with a more severe overcapacity problem, and as the investment accelerates, the problem will become more and more serious.　　Galaxy Securities macroeconomic analyst Jing Daming to CBN reporters that the current emergence of real estate prices and stocks and other asset prices will directly affect urban consumption, not conducive to economic recovery.　　Haitong Securities Institute issued a report that the domestic demand in the end demand is not fully warmed and private investment has not been fully activated, the foundation of economic recovery is not stable.　　In addition, the external demand has not yet stabilized, the external economy is also a lot of uncertainty, even if we forecast the latest economic stability in the third quarter of this year, but the external need to return to pre-crisis levels still need a considerable amount of time.　　Monetary policy fine-tuning path selection 8 months later, the central bank restarted a one-year vote on July 8, seen as a symbol of the central bank's initial fine-tuning of loose monetary policy. The central bank's move is backed by a record $7.36 trillion trillion in new loans in the first half of the year.　　Increased by more than 200% over the same period last year.　　Many economists have warned, and economist Shen that in the next 12 months, if quarterly GDP is double-digit growth and liquidity continues to be loose, the likelihood of a monthly CPI rise of more than 5% next year is high. Yu Bin also believes that a massive credit investment could push up inflation expectations, while stimulating asset prices, such as stock prices and real estate prices, would lead to a massive return of money from the real economy to equities and housing, which would be detrimental to economic recovery.　　Once asset bubbles are formed, future economic risks will be great. In addition, from domestic inflationary pressure, although the money supply has grown rapidly this year, but because of the economic downturn, a large number of overcapacity, so that the speed of circulation is relatively slow, so the economy did not quickly show inflationary pressure. However, as the economy picks up, the turnover speed of the goods will be speeded up, the speed of money circulation will accelerate, and the price of primary products will riseBig inflationary pressures.　　Yu Bin that economic easing and inflationary pressures have led to a narrowing of policy margins and space, but it is most important that policies remain continuous and sustainable. Haitong Securities report that the economic rebound in the year is basically established, but the existing growth-guaranteed stimulus policy will not exit.　　If the second-quarter figures show a sharp pick-up in the quarter-on-quarter period, which is more than 7.1% per cent year-on-year for GDP growth, the likelihood of a gradual fine-tuning of the quantitative instruments of monetary policy will increase. Haitong Securities report that, starting from the three quarter, monetary policy will fine-tune, to four quarters, the speed of credit will be significantly slowed down. However, the benchmark interest rate and reserve requirement ratio of deposit and loan will remain unchanged.