Absrtact: Suppose a year 10 billion revenue, delay three month repayment, hand is 2.5 billion cash flow! The delay six month repayment, the hand is 5 billion! Suppose a crazy shop expands cash flow, 20 billion revenue a year, delays three month repayment, hand is 5 billion, delay six months,
Suppose 10 billion revenue a year, delay three months repayment, hand is 2.5 billion cash flow! Delay six months repayment, hand is 5 billion! Suppose Crazy open shop expand cash Flow, a year 20 billion revenue, delay three month repayment, hand is 5 billion, delay six months, is 10 billion!! Want to know how the Gome suning is developed, please follow the "internet some things" together please look down.
The secret of cash flow
Author: Deng Yuanjie
The article "Su Ning Electric Appliance Analysis" (article clicks "reads the original text") to write after the meaning still not to do! Because there is a problem I did not speak clearly, is the importance of cash flow! Added to the original text is not appropriate, so this article continues to say. I believe that through my vivid analysis, you will Su Ning, Gome, Beijing East has a three-point understanding! I am not bragging, my article is worth at least 10,000 yuan, because I have done business, know the key, and read the news every day only know that the guy loaded B completely different! No one can use such vivid language, Speak clearly about such an important issue!
Cash flow, do you know how important it is to do business?
I have said that, Gome, Suning (hereinafter referred to as the United States and Soviet Union) sell appliances at all do not make money, or only earn a little hard money. One might ask, "Why do they have to drive so many stores?" and a bargain sale? At this point, the journalist and the B will tell you that they want to expand their size, crush their rivals, and profit by their size. Now do not make money, less money does not matter ah, defeated the opponent, will not be able to earn a lot of money?
I tell you this: it's all nonsense! Their goal is to get cash flow!
Is cash flow so important? Yes, because America and Sue make money by cash flow for capital operations.
For example: If I give you 10,000 every day (notice is given every day), ask you to give me 10,000 after 3 months (note also every day), your cash flow is 3.65 million a year. Did you make money? But the smart point has been seen, your hands always have three months of money, that is, 900,000. Theoretically, the 900,000 is always on your hands, right? So, are you able to deposit a bank to earn interest? 900,000 Yuan you have a long term, the annual interest also has a good tens of thousands of? So as long as it works properly, the cash flow itself, can generate profits!
Is that simple?
U.S.-Soviet, assuming 10 billion revenue a year, delayed three months repayment, hand is 2.5 billion cash flow! Delay six months repayment, hand is 5 billion! Suppose Crazy open shop expand cash Flow, a year 20 billion revenue, delay three month repayment, hand is 5 billion, delay six months, is 10 billion!
Will the US and Sue take the money to deposit the bank? Hey, in the era of China's big economic development and big inflation before 2007, when the real estate prices are crazy, there is so much money not to do real estate, not to operate capital, is not a fool? Take a piece of ground to build a building, a few years later the price rose several times, you say how much money? Moreover, the US and the Soviet Union through the real estate and capital operation to make money, the bank will instead ask them to lend, they hold the bank's cheap money, can earn more money!
Therefore, the appliance chain, only the U.S. and Soviet access to cash flow means! Sell home appliances can only earn a little money, even if the loss is nothing, and in other places can earn much more profits! But the premise is: cash flow must be sufficient!
This is the fundamental reason why the US and the Soviet Union are opening their stores madly!
Therefore, the analysis of Suning (as well as the huge cash flow of the enterprise) of the stock price, absolutely can not only look at the appliance itself! Some agencies and the idiot, still in the analysis of Su Ning's sales, Maori what, and based on confidence, retail investors are also looking forward to the growth of Su Ning, in the knowledgeable look is simply ridiculous!
So what about us and Sue now?
We also have to flow from the cash to the hand: Gree, long before the goods, suning is not cheap, so suning is not willing to sell gree. Gome has fallen out with gree because of the price problem. Can 2000 years later, especially after 2005, Haier, Hisense, Skyworth, more and more home appliances manufacturers require the first paragraph after the goods, or up to one weeks, half a month to pay. So the US-Soviet cash flow is greatly reduced. For example, Suning and Gome 2011 years of sales are 110 billion yuan, if it is more than 10 years ago, the loose environment, can zhanya manufacturers three months or even six months of funds, the United States and Sue have 27.5 billion yuan or 55 billion yuan, but now can only occupy half a month, hand cash immediately into 4.6 billion!
From tens of billions of to 4.6 billion, how many shady projects, how much cash-hungry losses, will be exposed to cash flow? So when I heard that Suning had to borrow 8 billion after the additional 4.7 billion, I gasped. Suning constantly financing, is not loaded B people say "engage in E-commerce, expand logistics." Gome also in these days 50 percent selling land, Gome sold to the HNA Group, to get 5 billion yuan, far less than the 2009 10 billion yuan. It is clear that Gome is also short of cash flow to do so.
Gome and Su Ning, have a large number of value has been greatly reduced property projects. 2007, China's overall economy is good, the United States and Soviet Union after all years of accumulation, rely on laurels and bank loans, can continue to maintain. But in recent years China's economic situation has not improved, the bank also control more and more tightly, the U.S. and Soviet Union will increasingly lack of money. Now you know how serious their situation is?
Well, then analyze the current operating environment of the United States and Soviet Union to see how their future:
The United States and Soviet Union has not been able to take the past that crazy Zhanya cash, crazy open Shop to expand cash flow, and then take cash flow rampant capital operation of the business model. First, the method of payment leads to a sharp decrease in cash flow. Second, the store has been enough, and E-commerce has developed. Jing Dong Impact, both the U.S. and Soviet profits, but also cash flow! Third, the U.S. and Soviet limited cash flow can not have so many good projects in the past, because of China's overall economic slowdown, commercial real estate situation is grim, so the United States and sue how much profit? Last but not least, the chain was able to earn a little money, Now in the impact of E-commerce must be losing money, and the more compensation. But the hot yam is not good to dump, close a shop is equivalent to cut a piece of meat ah, all aspects must lose money!
In short: The cash flow is much more tense, the profit greatly reduces even loses, this is the situation which the US and the Soviet Union currently faces. Rely on E-commerce, only temporary access to cash flow, and in the short term can not make money!
As a result, the good days of the past extensive of America and Soviet Union have gone completely. Their situation is rather difficult. In order to make up for cash flow, can only expand sales online (this is also the general direction of social development). So the traditional appliance enterprises and Beijing East, in order to rob the current is very important to them cash flow, just fight so Huan! I even suspect that Suning's past years have been false in order to expand its profits, thereby expanding its market capitalisation, as market capitalisation has expanded to continue financing, capital operations and real estate, thus continuing a "virtuous circle". But now everyone has a few years of tight days, and seems to have no head, then the past who made the biggest, now the hole will be exposed faster!
Do you understand? Only people like me who have done business, understand the importance of cash flow, and have xianxin willing to write out the people, can be vivid to tell you these reasons! Anyone who has done business knows what I mean, and what I say is not a profound thing. It's just that I've done it, and the guy who only does B doesn't do it, so he can only hide his ignorance by loading B.
In theory, as long as there is cash flow, the loss is not OK! For example, a company's cash flow of 10 billion a year, the loss of 10 million each year. Then it works for hundreds of years are no problem, because 10 years only 100 million, 100 years only lose 1 billion, as long as the cash flow, a little extension days or a few months repayment, who knows it is to pay AH. So how much is the cash flow? If you have a cash flow, you can be patient and wait for the fortune, and the enterprise without cash flow, will immediately die!
With this theory, I will analyze the Jing-dong. As long as the Beijing-East cash flow expansion, a year to lose some money is what? He can rely on cash flow for a long time to support! Therefore, the total analysis of the brain remnant of the profit, thought that the Guixing hundreds of millions of per annum, cannot melt the capital will not continue, fantasy it in a few years closed. I am not a fan of Beijing East, I only from the cash flow analysis: If the annual revenue of Jingdong expansion (more than 50%, the current goal is very easy), then the hands of the cash can be fully dealt with losses and deferred repayment! For example, suppose Jingdong 36 billion revenue this year, lose 2 billion, postpone repayment one months, Then Beijing east to the end of the hands of the money instead of more than 1 billion! (3 billion Accounts payable, minus 2 billion losses). Suppose that next year, Beijing's Dongying 54 billion, and a loss of 2 billion, but at the end of the hand will only be reduced by 500 million (4.5 billion accounts payable, minus 2 billion losses, and then pay the last year left 3 billion accounts payable). So as long as the Beijing-east revenue more and more, and the loss is not a big increase, jingdong hand of money enough for many years.
Therefore, the Beijing-east, Su Ning, the United States of the war, on the surface is the market share of the war, the profit of the war, but from a financial point of view, the more urgent reason is the Battle of cash flow! whose cash flow was knocked down, and who's underwear was immediately stripped down! Now who is the most urgent? is obviously Su Mei, hehe. All cut meat to sell land, continuous financing, cash flow can not hurry? So Su-Mei can only rely on the Bully Jing East attracted attention, and Jingdong, of course, to rise to fight back.
So on the surface, the electric business battle seems like a farce. But insiders understand the truth. Liu very understand, Jindong, Huang Guangyu, also very understand. However, do not understand the load B, the broad masses of Su Ning's retail investors are still not understand. They thought Liu was bluffing, coward. But the real bluff, Coward, is Su ning.
Lack of cash flow, like close combat was caught in the second. You don't want to get caught in the dick, do you? Then be sure to keep your cash flow. Otherwise, there will be no strength to come out, also can not last long ah, hehe.