The shipping industry will lag behind the economic recovery

Lu Ying BDI (Baltic Dry Bulk Index) recently stood at 2,600 points, hitting a new high in the year. Does the BDI strike herald a rebound in the shipping industry bottoming out?　　Can the export industry dispel and stimulate the shipping industry to continue to stabilise? Jing Ulrich, managing director of JPMorgan and China Securities Market, said in an interview with China Securities News reporter that the overall situation of China's foreign trade remains fragile, and domestic consumption and investment will offset the impact of exports on GDP.　　And the downturn in the shipping industry, especially in the container industry, will be longer than the economic downturn, subject to oversupply. Domestic demand and investment contribute to GDP growth China Securities News: This April's foreign trade data again hit the market's optimistic outlook for export stability.　　What is the future situation of China's foreign trade?　　Jing Ulrich: The overall situation of the future foreign trade remains fragile, in April the main port throughput in March after a brief rebound after the fall is evidence. From demand, US retail sales fell 0.4% in April, suggesting that the economy of China's biggest exporter is still in recession. 2008 exports to the United States accounted for 18% of China's total exports. The difficult trading environment of the past 9 months has caused huge challenges for suppliers, many of them bankrupt or forced to cut production.　　Even with the government's support policy, export-oriented industries are still in recession and must change their ways of doing business.　　China Securities Daily: NET exports have a significant effect on GDP, and will this year be a drag on GDP growth if net exports are negative? Jing Ulrich: The accelerated decline in exports in April underscores the importance of expanding domestic demand and investment support for growth. The Government has recognized the problem of heavy reliance on exports and has launched a series of policies to restructure the government's long-term economic model, increasing reliance on domestic demand.　　Given the rapid growth in investment and relatively flexible consumption resulting from the stimulus package, it is possible to achieve its growth target without making a significant contribution to exports. Driven by the government's stimulus package, fixed asset investment will be the most important contributor to GDP in the 2009. The roll-out of infrastructure projects throughout the year will offset the reduction in investment by companies most affected by falling exports and declining profits. Inland economies remain relatively healthy compared with export-oriented coastal areas.　　It also indicates a "decoupling" between the two or three-line cities and major coastal metropolises.　　Shipping industry adjustment Cycle long China Securities News: The recent BDI index set a rebound in the year's new highs, this rebound is not sustainable? Jing Ulrich: The situation of oversupply in shipping industry is rather grim. Shipping Advisor Sam Chambers has pointed out that the five-year rise in freight costs before the downturn has resulted in more orders than the first 20 years combined.　　Although seaborne freight and volume data are often the leading indicators of the world economy, the current downturn in shipping, especially container transport, will be longer than the economic downturn. From the whole shipping industry, bulk shipping will rebound first, container rebound in the end. Due to cancellation of orders, China holdsContinued construction needs and the accumulation of resources and raw materials, and other factors, dry bulk is already bottoming out the only plate. The Baltic Dry bulk index has risen 400 points in the past one months as iron ore imports continued to record.　　But for dry bulk, there is a concern that iron ore imports may gradually decline by the end of the year, given the large inventory levels at ports. The Yangtze River delta may only start to recover from the fourth quarter of this year.　　The ports in north China are affected by the periphery. Trade in the Asia-Pacific region may rebound before the trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe trade routes rebound.　　China Securities Daily: What are the reasons for the future of container transport? Jing Ulrich: Because the number of custom ships is too large, the container plate is affected by the global economic downturn most seriously. Currently, container orders account for about 45% of global fleet energy. The number of empty ships in the sea is much larger than that in Guangdong. 2000-2005 new ship delivered on average 600,000 TEUs per year. The figure is expected to reach 1.7 million standard boxes by 2009. More and more ships are being delivered to the new ship in 7000-14000 standard boxes. Oversupply would lead to a substantial drop in charter rates and a significant drop in ship value. It is estimated that the total loss of the global container shipping industry this year will be $32 billion.