The shock wave of bank clearing and lending: traders wait and see

February 2, the iron and steel electronic disk suddenly appeared abnormal fluctuations.　　Shanghai Still Rebar in the main long-term contract l100505y to 3,815 points high, smooth running for a period of time, near noon suddenly "diving", the afternoon is losing, and finally to 3719 large low, one-day this 96-point Big Yin Line on the K-bar on the show a large break state. Behind the spread of market panic is the spread of news. "Because of the serious phenomenon of steel hoarding in some parts of the country, with the recent tightening of credit, regulators began to worry about the high mortgage rate of steel traders." At present, Jiangsu Bank Supervision Department has taken the lead in the inventory of steel traders in the area of mortgage loans. "This is true, but exaggerated, the follow-up trend to be observed." "In this respect, the Western Shinkansen Co., Ltd. information director Shengzhi told our correspondent," In fact this rumor is old news, about two weeks ago we reported that the matter, now spread to the outside circle.　　According to the reporter's survey found that in Shanghai, the banking Department of Steel Traders mortgage loans did not carry out a comprehensive inventory, but the news has aroused high concern in the industry, at the same time, there are traders reflected in the Spring Festival before and after a period of capital chain more tight.　　Policy tightening news Now in fact, the tightening of credit in the steel industry, which has overcapacity since last December, has become the focus of social concern.　　December 23, 2009, the People's Bank of China, the Banking Regulatory Commission, the SFC and the CIRC jointly issued a request for the six industries, including steel, the industry to strictly review and approve loans.　　January 6 This year, the CBRC issued documents to remind banks to pay attention to the credit risk of steel enterprises, and asked for a survey of the operation of the steel industry, and with the NDRC, the Ministry of Industrial and Trade association and other departments specifically convened the meeting. And on February 2, the media again broke the heavy news, "Jiangsu Banking Regulatory Department has taken the lead in the inventory of steel traders in the area of mortgage-type loans. "To this news, Shanghai Cap Group Trading Co., Ltd. General manager Zhang Dongyong told reporters," Shanghai has individual traders were inventoried, these traders are more loans.　　The reporter called Other traders, also expressed strong concern about the news, but not at present by the relevant departments of the inventory. It is noteworthy that there are rumors that the inventory is aimed at Fujian businessmen.　　The reporter received a copy of the "to strengthen the first quarter of the renminbi credit scale control notice" in support of this point, the notice according to the "CBRC and the Fujian Regulatory Bureau of the leadership of the bank's credit to put forward to control the demand for a good rhythm" and issued. "Keep the loan balance steady and sustainable growth." The new RMB loan from 1 to March will be released according to the 5:3:3 schedule. "The notice request," in the allocation of credit resources, the 2009 at the end of the control number of branches as the benchmark, the new branch will be a certain support, in accordance with the principle of reasonable and balanced growth to arrange the new line of credit lines. "The core of the notice is that each line should strictly control the credit delivery according to the given monthly control number." The current loan has beenExceeding the number of controls, the notice of strict requirements, "to take immediate action to stop new loans, transfer bills discounted, to the bank has the size of the remaining branches to transfer loans and other measures as soon as possible to reduce the loan balance to ensure that the end of the month, the end of the loan balance at the head Roguiping, a guest commentator for the West's Shinkansen, analyzed the reporter's policy that banks do have signs of tightening, although the overall credit scale remains relatively loose.　　Now the impact of banking policy on traders is still on the psychological level, there is no specific policy. Multiple reasons for the introduction of the policy in response to the reasons, the media is widely analyzed from the "banking industry on domestic steel stocks continue to increase the concern." According to the data of the Western Shinkansen monitoring, as at January 29, 2009, the stock volume of rebar in Shanghai has continued to increase to 767,000 tons, and the stock volume of the spiral coil is about 29,000 tons, and the stock of wire is about 108,000 tons.　　To sum up, the total scale of construction steel stock in Shanghai in the period once again broke through 900,000 tons. "In the current inventory structure, a considerable amount of inventory is linked to the financial capital of the bank, through the pledge model, a considerable number of actual ownership of the inventory is still in the hands of institutions."　　"Roguiping analysis. In this case, "once the downstream end consumer goods manufacturing and consumption links market demand is insufficient, or market confidence frustration led to a decline in steel prices or poor inventory digestion, iron and steel enterprises will form a greater capital chain, banking institutions will accumulate serious financial risks." "In fact, more accurate reasons or due to some traders with false inventory of illegal mortgages." "A consignment of goods is mortgaged in a warehouse this year and will be transferred to warehouse B tomorrow." Zhang Dongyong told reporters that the current industry of such irregularities led to increased bank credit risk, "the inventory of traders belong to this category." "It is understood that the Jiangsu on the Steel trade loan pledge has been centrally cleared last November." Some traders in order to benefit, the owner and warehousing enterprises together fraud, the emergence of false or repeated pledge acts, fraud bank loans, and the proceeds of speculative transactions loans.　　In order to avoid losses, in October and November last year, the bank went to the steel trader's spot warehouse for a large area of closure.　　Zhang Dongyong, however, predicted that the survey would not be conducted across the industry. The impact is not yet clear for this message, the industry also has a voice of doubt.　　Perhaps this is just some of the negative news that some financial speculators have created for short on steel futures, Roguiping said.　　In addition to the above information in the electronic disk caused by fluctuations, the same day rebar and wire futures also fell sharply, the final plate main contract closed down 3.19%, breaking the recent preliminary stabilisation of the temporary balance situation. Haitong Futures Institute metal Futures senior analyst Tiangang told reporters, affected by this, the recent steel futures plate reaction is particularly intense. From the day plate, the futures market reaction is large, and the spot more rational.　　Traders are also aware that even if they cut prices at this time, they will not be able to withdraw much money. He noted that the credit rate for the first half of January 2010Too quickly, management wants to rein in the pace of lending.　　Of course, steel traders are considered to be more risky, after all, inventory volume, occupy more funds, is the implementation of the bank's policy is also understandable. In this respect, the industry view is not uniform. "High stock in the steel industry is undoubtedly a chain of restrictions on the operation of the price, once the capital face tightened, traders will put their hands on the goods to be thrown for the return of money." "If the phenomenon of steel hoarding in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Wuhan and other regions is really as serious as it is called, it will directly lead to a substantial increase in supply in the market and still weak demand, leading to a sharp fall in prices," said an insider.　　"" "short-term steel market overall stability, such as without external forces, the basic will be the current pattern of transition to the Spring Festival," the analyst said, but this negative news if determined, may break the current balance, hope traders cautious. While banks ' tightening of steel traders has not yet been clear, some traders have felt the pressure of capital chains during the Spring Festival.　　Shanghai Ning Jin Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. Deputy general manager Wu Jiquan said that February steel mills orders to pay the entire paragraph, the current traders have financial pressure. "First-quarter credit policy will maintain a moderately loose policy, but recently the bank acceptance rate has indeed risen sharply, and traders ' capital costs and capital pressures are increasing." Roguiping finally pointed out.