The short-term market still has the possibility

-Western Securities Wang Liangju at present, the stock index short-term still has the possibility to continue to rise, but the upward space is not big, expect the high point will appear near 3,250, and July late May face a more drastic adjustment. First of all, from the status of the IPO, last week listed two new shares of three gold medicine, million horse cable continued before the first day of the IPO rally, and in the plate once touched the 20% increase in the suspension line, the first day of the new shares rose also showed that the enthusiasm of the new shares of the new stock　　At the end of the week, the release of Chinese buildings shows the intention of management to regulate the pace of the market, and from this point of view, the pressure on the market capital face will increase, and eventually lead to changes in supply and demand. Second, the impact of the continued adequacy of liquidity on the market will continue to be marginal in the future. The June increase in loans amounted to 1.53 trillion trillion yuan, the continued high growth behind, do not rule out the possibility of credit to the stock market, but the cumulative increase in money driven by the risk of release, the adjustment will be very large. In addition, the market recently repeated wide shocks, but also basically because of the rumors of monetary policy turned to lead.　　In combination with the second half of the economic recovery and the background of domestic and foreign inflation expectations, the likelihood of future policy fine-tuning is also increasing. Of course, while the median line is cautious, we are still optimistic about the short-term market.　　The macroeconomic data on the economy are encouraging changes, as well as the underlying fundamentals that the listed companies expect to bring, and the long signals on the technical side have not changed, and to a certain extent, they have helped to push the stock index up. On the one hand, the beginning of the macro-economic recovery has basically become a market consensus, and macro-economic data changes have become a strong corroboration, the PMI index lasted for several months on the 50% line, the June electricity generation also began to end negative growth, the chain upward,　　And recently announced the entrepreneurial sentiment index also appears the trend of the chain rebound, the key economic performance indicators will improve in the short term continue to enhance confidence in the market. On the other hand, from the technical point of view, the current Shanghai and Shenzhen Index line of all moving averages upward, the long array of the average system on the index still constitutes a strong support. And from the performance of the Prev-week line, the 40-week EMA will gradually constitute a golden fork for the 50-week EMA, although the current MACD indicators have high passivation signs, but the volume can show that the market rhythm is still in the hands of the Bulls, volume continued to maintain a high level to help the stock index short-term