The thousand-year extreme cold weather two-degree attack China to benefit three big plates

Words Yan plum field cold, rain and snow continue. The Central Meteorological Observatory forecasts that from December 22 to 26th, most of China's central and eastern regions will cool 6~10℃, Inner Mongolia, eastern and northern China, north and south-east China Cooling range of 12~14℃, the Bureau of 16 ℃.　　Rain and snow will appear in eastern and southern parts of northwest China.　　December 15, nearly all of Jilin province was shrouded in 零下30摄氏度 low temperature, the extreme temperature reached the lowest 零下37.6摄氏度.　　Meteorological data show that the world is suffering from the so-called "Millennium Extreme Cold" of the harassment, cold, the global airport grounded, energy consumption, logistics is not smooth, and at this time, the global economy after 2009 years of short-lived recovery, is still faltering. At the beginning of 2008, the snowstorm in China brought about no small impact on the macro economy.　　Now the global cold weather to China's economy, a A-share and the world how to harassment it?　　The most important benefit to the three plates is the energy stocks. According to the reporter understand, December 17 beginning, because the electricity coal supply lags behind, Henan province Electricity coal stock total quantity drops rapidly, causes the electricity supply situation is very grim.　　Henan Electric Power Company's latest data show: At present, the provincial power gap of nearly 4 Million-kilowatt, less than 3 days of coal power plant reached 17.　　The reason is that Henan this year because of the shutdown of a small coal mine caused by one-third of coal production capacity, and electricity consumption is due to the impact of cold weather increased. Coal stocks are being focused on in cold weather. "Coal stocks are the first beneficiaries of extreme cold weather," said Zhou Ming, a Wanguo resource researcher. Chen Liang, chief analyst at GF Securities Coal industry, believes that in the current inflationary environment, the coal resource attribute will be sought after.　　And the thousand-year extremely cold attack, caused the coal industry fundamental anticipation to have the important change.　　December 15, 16th in the country more than the sound of Blizzard yellow alarm, despite the large green, but coal stocks, Jingyuan, Sichuan, San Tatsu, coal power, China Coal Energy, Orchid Branch Chong, Lu ' an ring can, Kailuan shares have a good performance. According to a wide range of journalists, researchers generally believe that from the valuation point of view, the overall valuation of the coal plate is not high. The industry's 2010 P/E ratio is only 19.56 times times.　　If the weather causes further electric coal tension, it will inevitably lead to soaring coal prices. GF Securities Coal analyst Chen Liang believes that in the "Twelve-Five" start of the year, the new government "gets going" the possibility of greater. The demand driven by new projects in the first quarter of next year is likely to exceed expectations.　　As long as there is a surge in coal prices in the early part of next year, even after a quarter and back to the starting point, the 2011-year EPS of coal stocks will still be higher than the current earnings forecasts.　　Similarly, gas-listed companies are also benefiting from the cold weather of the plate, Shenzhen gas, Changchun Gas, Gap natural gas, Datong gas recently performance, frequent trading, is the billboard of Shenzhen Gas and Changchun gas display, are located. But the government's main job now is to prevent the inflation rate from rising further. DataexThe Chinese government will delay the rise in water, gas, electricity and fuel prices in the next few months, the bank said. "The shipping plate is also a plate that benefits the cold weather." "A Sunshine private equity fund manager in Shanghai thinks," cold, snowstorm will lead to traffic jam, 2008 of coal transportation is carried out by water transport. "In the warm goods, clothing listed companies, the cold weather has not led to the number of investment opportunities, analysts tend to believe that clothing companies because of the cold price of the ability is not strong, and most of the SME, the investment target is not enough concentration."　　Only Hong Kong equities, which have risen since the start of the year, rose to HK $4.11 in the vicinity of HK $1.5 at the start of the year, but as the cold approached, investors ' Sell-off had plunged the unit into a recent slump.　　The cold is bad for some listed companies. 2008, due to lack of power or poor transport, a number of listed companies have been discontinued, the phenomenon of production decline.　　At that time, China aluminum industry in Guizhou two electrolytic aluminum factory was forced to stop production, the six countries, such as coal and other major raw materials such as the supply of supplies and production.　　At present, the reporter has not found because of the cold weather and large-scale production of companies, but if the price of coal, electricity companies will undoubtedly be squeezed profits. The policy is getting cold 2008 is the cold wave caused by snowstorm recurrence?　　The data from all sides are worrying.　　2008 1-February, the snowstorm led to a further increase in food prices in December, which exacerbated inflation, and eventually led to the January 2008, 2nd CPI rose to 7.1%, 8.7%. Afterwards, Wanguo macro chief strategist Li Huiyong said that the bad weather on the macro-economic impact of three aspects: first, the construction of fixed assets investment progress has been delayed, so that the growth of fixed assets investment slowed down; second, causing transport difficulties, so that the supply of agricultural products, food and other shocks,　　The overall price increases, thus pushing up the CPI; third, the power grid failure, combined with coal transport, will be hit.　　The snowstorm eventually became the catalyst for 2008 China's economic deep adjustment, all sectors of the industry sentiment index has slipped, a shares in the late January in the more than 10 days of the overall decline reached 15%, officially opened the prelude to a 2008 plunge.　　Looking at the current, liquidity has led to a 5.1% per cent rise in domestic CPI in November, with inflationary pressures already comparable to 2008. It is noteworthy that at present the retail price of refined oil has met the upward adjustment conditions. As of December 20, the three-place crude oil continued to move weighted average price than the last adjustment period of up to 9.16%, and the interval between the last price adjustment is also far exceeding 22 working days. At this time the price adjustment fully met the requirements of the pricing mechanism.　　The latest domestic price adjustment was on October 26, when petrol retail prices up 230 yuan/ton, diesel retail price increase of 220 yuan/ton. The further increase of refined oil is bound to aggravate the production cost of agriculture, logistics and other industries. In the global extreme cold and beautyUnder the double influence of yuan depreciation, international oil price is strong all the way, has already risen to 90 dollar/barrel high, hoped the national oil price falls is not realistic. "Increased inflationary pressures, especially inflation expectations, may prompt the Government to take further macro austerity measures to damage China's economic growth." "The manager of a joint venture fund company in Shanghai told reporters. "Some midstream enterprises may suffer the most serious, on the one hand, the price of raw materials rises, on the other hand, product prices are subject to price control, ultimately erode profit margins." "On the other hand.　　Credit scale also began to shrink, which in terms of liquidity, is bound to cause psychological pressure on a shares.　　By the end of 2010, the new credit volume is close to 7.5 trillion yuan in the policy red Line, the financial industry estimates, in order to control the size of credit, next year, the size of domestic new credit will fall by about 10%.　　According to reporters, some bank governors have received a notice from regulators, the current domestic banks next year, the distribution of credit plan is nearing the end, the entire credit scale may be reduced by about 10% than 2010.　　To curb credit scale, the central bank has raised the reserve requirement ratio six times this year, but recently the central bank has not chosen to raise interest rates to shrink the flow of nature.　　But the cold weather or eventually forced a policy to raise interest rates.　　According to Deutsche Bank, China's inflation rate will continue to rise in the first half of 2011, with benchmark interest rates likely to increase by 75 basis points over the next 7 quarters, while lending year-on-year growth will fall from nearly 20% in 2010 to around 15% in 2011. "The space for policy to regulate inflation has become narrower in the cold weather." This is the biggest problem. The private equity manager told reporters.