The three major airlines ' disturbance fuel cost comeback probability geometry

Last month, after a big increase in the price of fuel aviation kerosene used by airlines, the three major airlines finally can not restrain, began to apply for recovery of domestic fuel surcharge.　　Yesterday, the Southern Airlines Group revealed that the current South Airlines, China Eastern Airlines and Air China have already submitted applications to the Civil Aviation Authority, the resumption of the levy of domestic fuel surcharges to offset the impact of the rise in aviation oil prices. From June 30 onwards, domestic airlines commonly used 3rd jet fuel ex-factory price per ton from 4020 yuan to 5050 yuan, up to 25.6%.　　Li Lei, Citic Investment analyst, calculates that the civil aviation industry will increase the cost of 7 billion yuan all year. Since this year, domestic aviation oil prices have risen two times, the cumulative increase of nearly 1500 yuan per ton. However, the current levy on domestic airlines fuel surcharges from January this year began to suspend the levy, at that time, the Civil Aviation Authority said in the notice: "In the future, whether to resume the collection of domestic air passenger transport fuel surcharge, depending on the domestic aviation kerosene price changes in separate research to determine." "Yesterday, Southern Airlines Group Finance Minister Jianjun told reporters, at present, China Southern Airlines, Eastern Airlines and Air China has submitted to the Civil Aviation Authority for the resumption of the levy of domestic fuel surcharge, but the application levy range is not the same.　　As to whether the resumption of levy and the extent of collection, but also waiting for the national Development and Reform Commission to determine. Li Lei predicts that if international oil prices continue to rise, the recovery of fuel surcharges is likely, "according to previous years of practice, if the international oil prices exceed 80 U.S. dollars/barrels, more than the airline can withstand the range." "According to the reporter understands, the domestic route fuel surcharge from August 1, 2005 resumed levy, after four times and two downward adjustment."　　In January this year before the suspension of the adjustment is on December 25, 2008, the domestic 800 km above the fuel surcharge standard from 150 yuan per passenger to 40 yuan, 800 kilometers below the route from 80 to 20 yuan.　　Jianjun pointed out that if the domestic route of the fuel surcharge can be restored to the level before December 25, 2008, then the southern airlines may be reduced by about 50% of the cost of fuel. Recently, St board Chairman Zhou Chi told reporters, although December due to the spring Festival factors domestic aviation market rebounded, but began to go down in 3 April, May by the H 1N 1 flu impact is very large, air transport demand also fell to February after the spring festival level. However, the situation has improved since late June, "according to previous experience of SARS, the aviation market resumed in 8 September, and October was an explosive growth." "(Integrated)