The trade surplus of the academy is different from that of the Ministry of Commerce

China News agency, Beijing, April 22 (Xinhua) China's trade surplus is expected to reach $194 billion trillion in 2010, roughly unchanged from the previous year, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences announced in a blue book released today. The forecast contrasts with the Chinese Ministry of Commerce's judgment. A spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, Yao Jian, said earlier this month that China's trade surplus was expected to shrink by $100 billion a year, down from 3% to 4% per cent of GDP this year, based on a preliminary forecast.　　The trade surplus is close to 50% per cent year-on-year, according to the Department of Commerce estimates. In 2009, China's trade surplus was $196.06 billion trillion, a sharp drop of 34.2% from the previous year and a trade surplus of around 5.7% per cent of GDP.　　The Economic Community generally believes that the current account balance as a share of GDP in positive or negative 5% can be considered as a basic trade balance.　　The spring of Economic Blue Book, published by the Social Science literature Press, argues that in 2010, the world economy is expected to resume growth, the international financial market is stable and the development environment facing China has improved. It is expected that China's imports and exports will achieve a certain growth in the year, with an increase of 18.7% and 15.5% respectively.　　2009, the impact of the financial crisis, China's imports and exports have both double-digit negative growth. China's trade surplus peaked in 2008, reaching $298 billion trillion.　　Since 2009, the trade surplus has continued to shrink, and in March 2010 it has seen its first trade deficit in 6 years. That month, China recorded a trade deficit of $7.24 billion trillion, much higher than the market had previously expected. The Ministry of Commerce believes that as the economic "external heat outside the cold" gap will continue, the first half of China's monthly imports and exports in the balance of the situation "will be the normal". China achieved a trade surplus of $14.49 billion trillion in the first quarter, down 76.7% per cent year-on-year.